[Smart Q&A: Thomas U. Berger] The US Alliance System and Maritime Disputes in East Asia

YouTube Link: video.eai.or.kr/120607_smarttb_e.flv

Professor Thomas U. Berger received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is currently a professor of International Relations at Boston University.

Causes of Maritime Disputes in East Asia

"Nationalism Prevalent in East Asia Hinders Diplomatic Efforts to Resolve Maritime Disputes"

Two factors can be considered as causes of maritime disputes in East Asia: geo-strategic and geo-economic factors. At the center of the geo-strategic factors is the rise of China, particularly the expansion of its naval power. Since 1945, the United States has managed maritime disputes in the region based on its naval supremacy. Recently, China's naval expansion and its anti-access/area denial strategy have challenged the absolute superiority of the US Navy, creating an opportunity for maritime disputes in the region to reignite. In terms of geo-economic factors, they are linked to the economic rise of the East Asian region. Maritime territorial issues, intertwined with resource problems, are directly connected to the economic interests of the involved countries, making them prone to developing into sources of conflict among the economically rising nations in the region.

In addition, the pervasive nationalism in East Asia is the most significant factor explaining the persistent nature of maritime disputes in the region, posing a more complex challenge than overcoming the aforementioned geo-strategic and geo-economic factors. Nationalism acts as a major obstacle to the diplomatic resolution of maritime disputes by making it difficult for policymakers to reach agreements. Regardless of the actual intentions of national governments, the nationalist sentiments of the general public tend to escalate specific issues into serious problems, amplifying the instability of maritime disputes in the region.

Maritime Disputes and the East Asian Alliance System

"Maritime disputes exemplify the classic alliance dilemma"

"The US's neutral stance on maritime disputes is unsustainable"

Maritime disputes in the East Asian region exhibit the classic features of the alliance dilemma of entanglement and abandonment. From the US perspective, there is a concern about becoming entangled in unnecessary disputes and straining relations with major powers, including China, due to the issues of some of its allies. Conversely, the US allies harbor anxieties that they might be abandoned if the US, due to its concerns about entanglement, does not provide strong support in maritime issues that are vital to their national interests. As long as the United States maintains strategic ambiguity regarding sovereignty and maritime disputes, the alliance dilemma will persist.

In the long term, the US's strategic ambiguity or neutrality regarding maritime disputes will be difficult to sustain. The rise of China and the arms race among East Asian countries will increase the possibility of conflict between regional states. In a situation where the potential for conflict between China and US allies grows, the US will face a situation where it must clarify its position on maritime disputes.

In the long term, regional strategic dialogues, including China, could contribute to alleviating tensions in the region. Such platforms could help resolve issues of strategic distrust and misunderstanding that critically contribute to maritime disputes escalating into conflicts among the involved parties.

The South China Sea Issue and US-China Relations

"The US and China have ample room for agreement on various issues, including the South China Sea"

"Managing nationalism is paramount to resolving maritime disputes in East Asia"

To prevent future conflicts between the United States and China over maritime territories, the US government must clearly communicate to the Chinese government that it does not intend to contain China's rise. In fact, over the past decade, the US has pursued policies that encourage China's economic growth. Furthermore, policymakers in both the US and China believe that there is ample room for agreement on various issues, including the South China Sea, given that both countries prioritize cooperation over conflict.

To ensure stability in the East Asian region, a comprehensive understanding of the various factors causing maritime disputes is necessary. It is particularly important to remember that nationalism in China, the United States, and East Asian countries is the greatest potential factor for conflict. Policymakers in each country must manage nationalist aspirations effectively to prevent them from dictating national agendas. Additionally, further efforts by the involved parties are needed to ensure that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) framework evolves in a way that adequately reflects the increasingly complex competitive landscape of economic interests among regional states. ■

The East Asia Institute (EAI) has been selected as a core research institution for the MacArthur Foundation's 'Asia Security Initiative' program and receives financial support. EAI has been conducting Smart Q&A in the form of video interviews with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through Q&A sessions with experts in relevant fields. This manuscript is based on interview content compiled by Researcher Stephen Ranger (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies) and Researcher Kim Yang-gyu (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies), translated by Intern Lee Young-jin (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies). The opinions expressed are those of the individual experts and do not represent the views of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from Smart Q&A.