Japan-Korea Relations Through Public Opinion 2013-2023

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A New Chapter in Japan-Korea Relations Beyond the "Lost Decade"

Since 2012, Japan-Korea relations have faced a crisis of trust due to complex conflicts surrounding issues such as comfort women and forced labor, export controls on semiconductors, and the General Security of Military Information agreement. The cooling period, often referred to as the "lost decade," has shifted into a distinct thaw with the announcement of a solution to the forced labor issue by South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in March 2023, followed by successive summit meetings, an expansion of intergovernmental exchanges, and the recovery of private exchanges such as tourism. The mutual perception survey conducted that summer revealed a common public opinion in both countries recognizing the progress and importance of relations, alongside differing perceptions regarding whether this public opinion translates into favorable views.

Drawing on the results of mutual perception surveys conducted over the past 11 years, "Japan-Korea Relations Through Public Opinion 2013-2023" observes changes in the perceptions of both publics toward each other and toward Japan-Korea relations across various domains and analyzes their implications. This book, published at the dawn of a new chapter in Japan-Korea relations, will contribute to forecasting the future trajectory of these relations and laying the groundwork for proposing directions for South Korea's foreign policy toward Japan.

EAI's Mutual Perception Surveys: A Living Record of Evolving Japan-Korea Relations

The East Asia Institute (EAI) partnered with the Japanese non-profit think tank Genron NPO in 2013 to conduct annual mutual perception surveys of approximately one thousand citizens from each country. EAI, recognizing the significant impact of public sentiment, shaped by the unique history of colonial rule and subjugation, on bilateral relations, designed the mutual perception survey to accurately analyze public opinion on key issues and contribute to policy discussions and discourse formation in both governments. The survey, initiated amidst the worst period in Japan-Korea relations, has continued steadily through worsening relations and crises of trust, establishing itself as an indicator of long-term public opinion trends by its 10th anniversary in 2023.

Ten Perspectives Offering Insight into Japan-Korea Relations and Public Opinion Over 11 Years

This book analyzes the flow of public opinion regarding the dynamics of Japan-Korea relations from multifaceted perspectives, including conflicts of culture and identity, political and security relations, and economic ties.

In the preface, Son Yeol, Director of EAI and Professor at Yonsei University, points out that the survey results over 11 years have shown a general tendency for perceptions of the other country and evaluations of the current bilateral relationship to align. He further analyzes that while perceptions of historical issues have the greatest impact on changes in bilateral relations, their importance is gradually decreasing. He also suggests that behind the consistent high evaluation of the importance of Japan-Korea relations by the publics of both countries, despite the fluctuations in historical conflicts, lies the perception that the other country is important as a trading partner and security cooperation partner.

In Chapter 1, Park Seung-hyun, Professor at Keimyung University, explains that the gap between South Korea's "obsession" with past issues and Japan's "forgetfulness" acts as an impediment to the development of future-oriented Japan-Korea relations. The author suggests that in a situation where the historical perceptions of both countries find it difficult to reach common ground, consumption of popular culture is driving favorable views of the other country, and proposes developing this as a key means for improving Japan-Korea relations.

In Chapter 2, Lee Jeong-hwan, Professor at Seoul National University, forecasts that while the perception of Japan-Korea economic relations evolving into a more equal bilateral relationship has spread with South Korea's economic growth, this perception may shrink again if South Korea's low-growth phase continues long-term. He also analyzes that the normative perception of the importance of Japan-Korea economic cooperation has not had the influence to drive overall improvements in relations. He emphasizes that a future-oriented relationship can be built by moving beyond the "partisanship of Japan policy" implied by the differing perceptions of economic cooperation based on ideological orientation observed in recent surveys.

In Chapter 3, Seok Ju-hee, Research Fellow at the Northeast Asian History Foundation, points out that the nationalisms of Japan and South Korea, which are usually internalized and entrenched, repeatedly manifest as hatred and backlash when historical or territorial issues arise, thereby hindering Japan-Korea relations. She specifically analyzes that in Japan, anti-Korean sentiment, arising as a reaction to the Korean Wave, has led to the spread of exclusionism and patriotism. As a way to overcome this, she proposes activating public diplomacy and private exchanges to build long-term and stable cooperative relations, while also emphasizing the need for detailed analysis of anti-Korean sentiment and anti-Japan sentiment that hinder cooperation.

In Chapter 4, Yoon Suk-jung, Research Professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, diagnoses that Japan-Korea relations experienced a complex crisis in the 2010s as conflicts over historical issues overshadowed the influence of cooperative areas such as economy and security. Based on the responses to the question asking about the correlation between historical issues and Japan-Korea relations, the author analyzes that while South Korean citizens tend to perceive historical conflicts as a process to be overcome for the improvement of bilateral relations, Japanese citizens perceive historical conflicts as conflicts in themselves, separate from future-oriented cooperation. Furthermore, given the relative indifference of Japanese citizens to historical issues, the impetus for improving relations is likely to come from the South Korean side.

In Chapter 5, Park Myung-hee, Legislative Research Officer at the National Assembly Library, analyzes that public opinion surrounding the comfort women and forced labor issues has been influenced by changes in the political environment, such as changes in administration, and argues that the framing of diplomatic issues by policymakers shapes the perception framework of their citizens. In contrast, she points out the lack of efforts by both governments to send messages of reconciliation to the citizens of the other country and emphasizes the need to fundamentally resolve the issues of history education and comfort women, which have been perceived as "tasks to be resolved" by the publics of both countries, in order to narrow the gap in historical perceptions.

In Chapter 6, Lee Ju-kyung, Professor at Pusan National University, analyzes that conflicts over historical issues in both Japan and South Korea lead to distrust of the other country's politics. However, she notes a difference: in South Korea, favorable views of Japanese society coexist with political distrust, whereas in Japan, discomfort with South Korean nationalism appears alongside political distrust. She also explains that differences emerge in prioritizing economic value in South Korea and security value in Japan when considering the strategic value of the other country. The author points out that the gap between the policy orientations of the publics and the foreign policies of the governments is a difficulty in Japan-Korea diplomacy, and emphasizes the importance of a long-term process where mutual respect between the political circles of both countries leads to the restoration of political trust within each nation and the formation of trust toward the other country.

In Chapter 7, Kim Sung-jo, Professor at Yonsei University, explains the impact of perceptions of relative status on Japan-Korea relations using data from the question asking whether South Korea and Japan have reached an equal relationship. Japanese people have perceived a superior status compared to other Asian countries and have used this as a source of national pride, whereas South Koreans are more clearly aware of the rise in South Korea's relative status in the international community. The author suggests the need for efforts to understand the differing sentiments of citizens in the other country, while also managing the discrepancy in status perceptions between the two countries to prevent it from escalating into conflicts over their relative positions in the international community.

In Chapter 8, Cho Eun-il, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, explains that despite differences in security perceptions, such as the fact that the countries perceived as threats by the publics of Japan and South Korea differ, positive public opinion on Japan-Korea security cooperation is being formed based on the recognition that trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan contributes to stability on the Korean Peninsula. The author emphasizes that public opinion drives or constrains the policies of democratic states, and this influence extends to the security domain. He suggests the need to pay attention to public opinion trends while also proposing security policies based on the common understanding that cooperation is necessary for regional stability.

In Chapter 9, Oh Seung-hee, Research Professor at Seoul National University, posits that perceptions of threats in the international environment constitute citizen identity and analyzes the correlation between the perceptions of neighboring countries by the publics of Japan and South Korea and their perceptions of each other. The author explains that with the unfolding of the U.S.-China strategic competition, the self-perception of being "an ally of the United States" and the perception of threats from China and North Korea have increased in both Japan and South Korea. These perceptions have driven the recognition of the necessity of Japan-Korea cooperation and the rise in favorability and importance attributed to the other country.

Table of Contents

Foreword _ 6

Preface _ 10

Son Yeol | East Asia Institute; Yonsei University

1 What Comes to Mind When Japan and South Korea Think of Each Other? _ 22

Park Seung-hyun | Keimyung University

2 Changes in Perceptions of Japan-Korea Economic Relations and Economic Cooperation _ 57

Lee Jeong-hwan | Seoul National University

3 Phenomena of Hate and Japan-Korea Relations as Seen Through Mutual Perception Surveys _ 90

Seok Ju-hee | Northeast Asian History Foundation

4 Perceptions of the Japanese and Korean Publics Between Future-Oriented Cooperation and Historical Issues _ 116

Yoon Suk-jung | Korea National Diplomatic Academy

5 How is Public Opinion on Historical Issues Between Japan and South Korea Formed? Focusing on Historical Perception, Political Environment, and Framing _ 160

Park Myung-hee | National Assembly Library

6 Japan-Korea Diplomacy and Public Political Efficacy: Focusing on Perceptions of the Other Country, Evaluation of Responses, and Political Trust _ 190

Lee Ju-kyung | Pusan National University

7 Asymmetry in Perceptions of Relative Status Between Japanese and Korean Citizens _ 227

Kim Sung-jo | Yonsei University

8 Japan-Korea Security Relations Through Public Opinion Surveys: Is Security Important in Japan-Korea Relations? _ 259

Cho Eun-il | Korea Institute for Defense Analyses

9 Perceptions of Neighboring Countries and Changes in Mutual Perceptions in South Korea and Japan _ 283

Oh Seung-hee | Seoul National University

Appendix 1: Trends in Responses to Key Questions in the Japan-Korea Mutual Perception Survey _ 307

Appendix 2: 2023 Results of the Japan-Korea Mutual Perception Survey _ 315

Contributors' Biographies _ 346