Future of North Korea 2032: Coevolutionary Strategy for Advancement

"Advancement of North Korea?"

At the recent Workers' Party of Korea conference, North Korea formalized the establishment of a succession system centered on Kim Jong-un, the third son of Kim Jong-il. Kim Jong-un is now emerging as the de facto second-in-command in North Korean politics, following Kim Jong-il. While it is evaluated as an unprecedented third-generation hereditary succession, it may have been a natural outcome for North Korea, which internally sustains a dictatorship by the supreme leader and military-first politics, and externally faces isolation and desperation as a problematic state in the international community.

The world has already entered the 21st century global era, but North Korea remains stuck in the 19th century. How long can it endure in this state? Can it survive by maintaining a third-generation hereditary succession? For us, who continue to live with a divided homeland in the 21st century, the future of North Korea is ultimately our own future. Therefore, as we cannot stand idly by while North Korea takes a regressive path, we must earnestly contemplate future development strategies for North Korea. It is ultimately our responsibility to bring North Korea into the 21st century, develop it, and advance it.

"Why 2032?"

2012 is the year the North Korean leadership officially declared they would open the doors to a strong and prosperous nation. However, the reality is bleak. The excessive security of the nuclear military-first policy has paradoxically exacerbated security anxieties, and due to excessive spending for this security, North Korea remains trapped in the tragedy of being one of the world's poorest nations. Furthermore, it is difficult to expect any decisive action from the North Korean leadership that could transform this tragedy. Nevertheless, North Korea will likely declare the completion of its strong and prosperous nation-building in 2012.

Setting aside declarations that no one will believe, we must look at a truly achievable timeframe. Thus, we determined that if there is any force capable of changing North Korea and if it acts positively, the closest point in time at which we can expect an advanced North Korea would be about 20 years thereafter. 2032 is the realistic target year for North Korea's advancement.

"Coevolutionary Strategy: Internal and External Changes Must Occur Simultaneously."

The debate between "Sunshine Policy" and "Sanctions" has neither transformed North Korea nor eased tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Although two decades have passed since the full-fledged opening of diplomatic relations with Northern countries, confrontation and conflict on the Korean Peninsula have not been resolved. A departure from past retrospective and critical discourse on North Korean studies was urgently needed, along with a more constructive and future-oriented approach. Consequently, the EAI Center for North Korean Studies established the "North Korea Advancement Research Panel" in March 2008 and began earnestly exploring future development strategies for North Korea.

As a solution, we propose the "coevolutionary strategy" as a keyword. For North Korea to resolve its survival issues and overcome the crisis on the Korean Peninsula to consolidate peace, it requires not unilateral initiative, but the "coevolution" of North Korea, South Korea, and surrounding powers changing simultaneously.

North Korea 2032: Coevolutionary Strategy for Advancement

This book is the result of EAI's "North Korea Advancement Research" and centers on the keyword "coevolutionary strategy," encompassing politics, diplomacy, military affairs, economy, and human rights. Experts from each field participated, making this the first comprehensive attempt at a development strategy for North Korea. We hope this book will serve as a catalyst for a new approach to developing constructive alternatives for issues concerning North and South Korea.

Table of Contents

1. Path to an Advanced North Korea 2032: Building a Complex Network State | Young-Sun HA

2. North Korea as a Transformer: From a Fortress State to an Amphibious State | Seongji WOO

3. Coevolution Strategy for North Korea: Diplomacy | Chaesung CHUN

4. Getting Out of the Military-First Dilemmas: In Search of North Korea’s Coevolution Military Strategy | Jihwan HWANG

5. A Strategy for the Advancement of the North Korean Economy | Dongho JO

6. A Strategy for the Coevolution of North Korean Human Rights | Soo-Am KIM