[EAI Presidential Election Panel Survey] ③ Weakening Regionalism: Has the Formula of “Progressives in Gwangju-Jeolla, Conservatives in Daegu-Gyeongbuk” Been Broken?

1. Introduction: The Weakening of Regionalism?

Regionalism has long been considered a significant cleavage factor determining South Korea's electoral landscape. However, since the mid-2000s, discussions have emerged suggesting that the influence of regionalism on voter behavior is diminishing as alternative cleavage factors such as ideology and generation have gained prominence in South Korea (Choi Jun-young and Cho Jin-man 2005; Kang Won-taek 2003; Kim et al. 2008). Conversely, numerous studies have argued that regionalism continues to exert a significant influence on the political attitudes and behaviors of South Korean voters, alongside newly emerging factors (Yoon Kwang-il 2012; Kim Yong-chul and Cho Young-ho 2015; Moon Woo-jin 2017; Noh Ki-woo et al. 2018).

Amidst this debate, the 19th presidential election held after the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in 2017, followed by the 7th National Simultaneous Local Elections (2018) and the 21st National Assembly Election (2020), saw the Democratic Party perform strongly in the traditional conservative stronghold of Yeongnam (particularly in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam), leading to discussions about whether regionalism was indeed weakening. The observation of a slight decrease in voter support for the People Power Party (inheriting the legacy of the Liberty Korea Party and the United Future Party) in the Yeongnam region, especially in the so-called PK areas of Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, fueled discussions about potential changes in regionalism (Jeong Jae-do and Lee Jae-mook 2018).

In this context, President Moon Jae-in secured the highest vote share in his hometown of Busan (38.7%) and the adjacent region of Ulsan (38.1%) in the 19th presidential election. He also performed well in Gyeongnam (36.7%), Daegu (21.8%), and Gyeongbuk (21.7%), demonstrating relatively balanced support nationwide. Furthermore, in the 2018 local elections, the Democratic Party candidates Oh Keo-don in Busan (55.23% of the vote), Song Cheol-ho in Ulsan (52.88%), and Kim Kyoung-soo in Gyeongnam (52.81%) all surpassed 50% of the vote, sweeping the metropolitan mayor positions in the Gyeongnam region, which seemed to solidify the weakening of regionalism in Yeongnam.

However, the reduced political attachment of Gyeongnam voters to conservative parties did not necessarily translate into increased support or loyalty towards the Democratic Party. Therefore, the view that the observed shifts in regional voting patterns in Yeongnam represent a 'dealignment' from existing partisan alignments rather than a 'partisan realignment' is still considered the more conventional perspective (Kang Won-taek 2019). Indeed, the Busan mayoral by-election in April 2021, considered a preliminary election for the current presidential election, saw the People Power Party candidate Park Hyung-joon win by a significant margin with 62.67% of the vote, compared to the Democratic Party's Kim Young-choon who received 34.42%. This result reaffirmed that the voting intentions of the so-called PK region's voters can be quite fluid.

2. The 20th Presidential Election and Regionalism: Analysis of Election Results

Against this backdrop, let us examine the regional competitive dynamics between the two major parties, focusing on the 20th presidential election. One of the primary factors cited for the weakening of regionalism in national elections since the 2000s is the Democratic Party, traditionally based in Honam, nominating presidential candidates from the Yeongnam region (Roh Moo-hyun in 2002 and Moon Jae-in in 2017). In this regard, the Democratic Party's candidate Lee Jae-myung, originally from Andong, Gyeongbuk, focused his campaign on winning over voters in the Yeongnam region by highlighting his status as the first presidential candidate from TK for the Democratic Party. However, he faced backlash during the party primaries for mentioning the "Baekje Bulgagwon Theory" (a theory suggesting that a candidate from Baekje, historically associated with the Honam region, would not win in the Yeongnam region), which was justified by the argument that a candidate from Yeongnam would have broader appeal than one from Honam in national elections.

[Figure 1] Regional Vote Share for Democratic Party Presidential Candidates, 2012-2022 (Unit: %)

Examining the regional vote shares based on the actual vote count, candidate Lee Jae-myung, who received 47.83% of the national vote, secured 21.6% of the votes in Daegu and 23.8% in Gyeongbuk, traditional weak areas for the Democratic Party. He also recorded vote shares of 38.15% in Busan, 40.79% in Ulsan, and 37.38% in Gyeongnam. Comparing these figures with President Moon Jae-in's regional vote shares from five years prior, Lee Jae-myung's results show differences in Daegu (21.76% vs. 21.60%), Gyeongbuk (21.73% vs. 23.80%), Busan (38.71% vs. 38.15%), Ulsan (38.14% vs. 40.79%), and Gyeongnam (36.73% vs. 37.38%). As indicated by the metropolitan area election results, although Lee Jae-myung narrowly lost the national election by 0.73%, his performance in Gyeongbuk, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam was actually stronger compared to President Moon Jae-in's results five years ago. Therefore, considering the entire Yeongnam region, the presidential election did not show significant changes in terms of regional voting compared to the election results from five years ago. In other words, similar to the national election results over the past five years, the Democratic Party maintained a stable vote share close to 40% in the so-called PK regions, including Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, in this presidential election as well. In the Honam region, Lee Jae-myung achieved significantly better results, exceeding President Moon's vote share in the region by about 20%, but his performance was somewhat lower than that of candidate Moon Jae-in in the 2012 presidential election in Gwangju and Jeolla regions. It is important to consider that in the 2017 presidential election, the People's Party candidate Ahn Cheo-soo performed strongly in the Honam region, securing 30.08% in Gwangju, 30.68% in Jeonnam, and 23.76% in Jeonbuk, which led to a dispersion of Democratic Party-leaning votes away from candidate Moon Jae-in.

What, then, about the changes in voter behavior in the Honam region? In response to the shifts in voter sentiment in the Yeongnam region observed in recent national elections, the People Power Party pursued a strategy of "Western Advance" (Seojin) during this election period to specifically target voters in the Honam region. Party leader Lee Jun-seok frequently visited the Honam region during the campaign, and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol sent handwritten letters to the 2.3 million voters residing in Honam during the Lunar New Year holiday, appealing to them with his policy vision. Furthermore, the People Power Party recruited former National Assembly members from the Honam region, such as Park Joo-sun and Kim Dong-chul, to the election committee and appointed Lee Yong-ho, the incumbent and the sole National Assembly member from Honam within the People Power Party, as a co-chair of the committee. Candidate Yoon Suk-yeol also made a historic visit to the birthplace of former President Kim Dae-jung in Haui-do, Sinan County, Jeonnam, as the first presidential candidate from a conservative party to do so, demonstrating multifaceted efforts to appeal to the Honam electorate. As a result of these efforts, some opinion polls released during the election campaign showed candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party receiving over 30% support in Honam, leading to expectations in some quarters that the People Power Party would approach 30% of the vote in Honam this time.

[Figure 2] Regional Vote Share for People Power Party Presidential Candidates, 2012-2022 (Unit: %)

The actual vote count revealed that although the People Power Party did not achieve the expected 30% of the vote, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol recorded the highest presidential election vote share for a conservative candidate in Honam (12.72% in Gwangju, 11.44% in Jeonnam, and 14.42% in Jeonbuk). Specifically, Yoon Suk-yeol not only surpassed the vote shares of Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party in the 18th presidential election in 2012 (7.76% in Gwangju, 10.00% in Jeonnam, 10.46% in Jeonbuk) but also broke the records for the highest vote shares by conservative party candidates in the Honam region in previous presidential elections: Gwangju (Lee Myung-bak in 2008, 8.6%), Jeonnam (Park Geun-hye in 2012, 10%), and Jeonbuk (Roh Tae-woo in 1987, 14.13%). While the vote share may appear numerically lower compared to the votes received by the Democratic Party in the Yeongnam region, it can be interpreted as a significant change indicating the potential for future shifts in Honam's regionalism.

3. Voter Behavior and Regionalism in the 20th Presidential Election

Let us examine changes in regional voting behavior at a micro-level by analyzing the results of voter surveys conducted before and after the presidential election. This survey was conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI) through two rounds of telephone interviews with the same panel of respondents, commissioned to Korea Research (First survey: December 12-15, 2021; Second survey: March 10-15, 2022). The response rate was 80.3% (1,374 contacted, 1,104 responded), with a margin of error of ±2.9%p.

[Table 1] Voting Choice and Political Orientation by Voter's Residential Region

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[Figure 3] Difference in Vote Share between Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol (by Residence)

First, examining the presidential election candidates by voter residence, similar to the actual election results, candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party shows a selection rate of over 20% in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, and over 40% in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, who received 12.72% of the vote in Honam in the actual election results, also recorded 14.5% support from the Gwangju/Jeolla region in this survey. [Figure 3] shows the difference in vote share between candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol by respondent's region of residence, based on the survey results. A plus (+) indicates regions where candidate Lee Jae-myung was dominant, while a minus (-) indicates regions where candidate Yoon Suk-yeol was dominant (disadvantageous for candidate Lee Jae-myung). For reference, the difference in vote share (candidate support) between the two candidates ranges from -1 to +1. Based on the candidate selection rate, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol slightly leads candidate Lee Jae-myung in all regions except Honam, while candidate Lee Jae-myung significantly leads candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in terms of support in the Honam region. In other words, based on the candidate selection rate of the two major parties, the survey results are consistent with the overall status of regionalism in voting intentions, but they show a somewhat moderated regionalism compared to the actual election results in the Yeong-Honam regions.

[Table 2] Voting Choices by Voter's Region of Origin

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Looking more closely at the survey results, voters residing in the Honam region are, on average, more progressive in their ideological orientation than voters in other regions, and they show a more favorable or moderate stance on the evaluation of the Moon Jae-in administration. The regional political orientation of Honam voters is reconfirmed by the proportion of respondents who agreed with the survey question, "This presidential election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration." Honam residents showed the lowest agreement score on average (4.15 points compared to respondents from other regions), and this contrasted sharply with the voting intentions of Daegu/Gyeongbuk voters (6.89 points), who expressed high agreement with this question. When shifting the focus from the voter's current residence to their place of origin (hometown), a similar pattern to the analysis by residence is observed. However, it is noteworthy that the support for the People Power Party's candidate Yoon Suk-yeol among voters of Honam origin shows a slight increase compared to those residing in Honam.

[Figure 4] Difference in Vote Share between Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol (by Region of Origin)

Meanwhile, regarding the possibility of changes in regionalism, an interesting analytical finding emerges from the question asking about the degree of agreement (0-10 points) with the statement, "This presidential election has weakened regionalism compared to the previous election." In relation to this question, voters residing in the Yeongnam (including Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam) and Honam regions showed a common high level of agreement compared to voters in other regions. The degree of agreement among residents of the PK region was the highest across all regions at 4.46 points, followed by Daegu/Gyeongbuk (4.30 points), and then Honam (Jeonnam/Jeonbuk, 4.27 points).

[Figure 5] Favorability of Politicians by Region of Residence

[Figure 6] Favorability of Political Parties by Region of Residence

To further examine voters' regional sentiments, let us look at the favorability index of major politicians and presidential candidates (President Moon Jae-in, and candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol), as well as the two major political parties, according to respondents' region of residence. Politician and party favorability is based on survey responses where respondents indicated how much they liked or disliked the subject on a scale of 0 (strongly dislike) to 10 (strongly like). First, when examining the favorability of President Moon Jae-in and the two presidential candidates by region of residence, the main differences are found in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Honam regions.

In the PK region, the favorability difference between President Moon Jae-in and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol is not significantly large, at 4.5 and 4.8 respectively. Candidate Lee Jae-myung's favorability among voters in this region is also 4.2 points, showing no significant gap compared to President Moon Jae-in (0.3 points difference) and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol (0.6 points difference). However, in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region, President Moon and candidate Lee Jae-myung, with favorability scores of 3.7 and 3.8 respectively, show a gap of nearly 2 points with candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, who recorded a favorability score of 5.6. Conversely, in the Honam region, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, with a favorability score of 2.7, lags significantly behind President Moon (6.6 points) and candidate Lee (6.1 points).[1] The favorability gap between the parties shows a similar pattern to the favorability gap between the candidates. The favorability of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party in the Yeongnam and Honam regions are as follows: Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (3.9:4.4), Daegu/Gyeongbuk (3.1:5.2), and Gwangju/Jeolla (5.8:2.5). The gap is mainly significant in Gwangju/Jeolla and Daegu/Gyeongbuk, in that order.[2]

To indirectly examine the future possibility of regionalism changes, let us divide voters into age groups and examine their voting tendencies in this presidential election and the favorability gap between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party.[3] Similar to the analysis above, the candidate support and party favorability gaps presented in [Figure 5] and [Figure 6] are within the range of -1 to +1. A value closer to +1 indicates a region or age group where candidate Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party) was dominant, while a value closer to -1 indicates a region or age group where candidate Yoon Suk-yeol (People Power Party) was dominant. First, in all regions except Seoul and Gwangju/Jeolla, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol narrowly led candidate Lee Jae-myung in terms of candidate support among those in their 20s (ages 18-28). This slight conservative bias among voters in their 20s is also observed in the party favorability gap. That is, similar to the candidate selection results, the favorability of the People Power Party among voters in their 20s slightly exceeds the favorability of the Democratic Party in all regions except Seoul and Gwangju/Jeolla.

Meanwhile, looking solely at voters in the Yeongnam and Honam regions, we can confirm to some extent the possibility of regionalism weakening through the difference in vote share between the two candidates by age group within these regions and the difference in party favorability by age group. First, in the Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam region, support for candidate Lee Jae-myung was found to lead candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, particularly among those in their 30s and 40s. This dominance of the Democratic Party among respondents in their 30s and 40s in the PK region is reconfirmed in terms of party favorability. In the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region, compared to the group aged 50 and over, the dislike for the Democratic Party is somewhat reduced among the group under 40, and the disadvantage of candidate Lee Jae-myung in vote share within this region is somewhat mitigated in the age groups of 20s and 40s. In the Gwangju/Jeolla region, the favorability gap between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party is smaller among those in their 20s compared to other age groups. However, in the Gwangju/Jeolla region, the party favorability gap between the two parties does not differ significantly across age groups.

Ultimately, based on the analysis above, the trend of weakening regional voting, as in previous discussions, is more evident in the Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam region compared to other Yeongnam and Honam regions. In this presidential election, the voting tendency towards regional parties in the PK region was relatively less concentrated compared to Daegu/Gyeongbuk or Gwangju/Jeolla. However, based on this survey, we can assess that a weak possibility of future regionalism shifts has been observed among the younger generation compared to the older generation (50 and over) in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Gwangju/Jeolla regions as well.

[Figure 7] Difference in Vote Share between Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol by Region (Respondent's Region of Residence, %)

[Figure 8] Difference in Favorability between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party by Region of Residence (%)

4. Conclusion

Regionalism, considered the most important voting determinant in Korean elections since democratization, has continuously shown signs of weakening influence since the 2000s with the rise of alternative cleavages. In particular, changes in regionalism have been observed in national elections held in recent years, primarily in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK) regions. In this presidential election, candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party secured approximately 40% of the vote in the PK region, maintaining a stable party support level similar to the Democratic Party's vote share in the 19th presidential election five years prior. Furthermore, while the regionalist tendency remains strong in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk (TK) region compared to the PK region within the Yeongnam area, candidate Moon Jae-in had already surpassed the 20% vote share mark in the TK region five years ago. In this 20th presidential election, candidate Lee Jae-myung once again garnered over 20% of voter support in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region. Notably, Lee Jae-myung achieved the highest vote share (23.8%) among all Democratic Party candidates in his birthplace (Gyeongbuk).

While the pace of change in regionalism in the Honam region may be slower compared to the Yeongnam region, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party received the largest share of votes among conservative candidates in the Honam region in this presidential election. Yoon Suk-yeol recorded double-digit vote shares in Gwangju, North Jeolla Province, and South Jeolla Province, even approaching 15% in North Jeolla Province. The election results warrant close observation regarding future changes in regional voting tendencies within the Honam region.

Meanwhile, to explore the potential for future changes in regional voting tendencies, an examination of party and politician favorability ratings by region and generation among voters in the Yeongnam and Honam regions reveals that, similar to the 20th presidential election results, the intensity of regionalism is strongest in Gwangju/Jeolla, followed by Daegu/Gyeongbuk, and then Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam. However, it is noteworthy that in the Gwangju/Jeolla and Daegu/Gyeongbuk regions, the degree of regional party bias appears to be somewhat reduced among the younger generation compared to older generations. A more detailed analysis of voters in the Yeongnam and Honam regions, considering various socio-political backgrounds such as generation, class, ideological orientation, and education level, could offer some predictions about the extent to which regional factors may be replaced by other voting determinants like class, generation, and ideology in these regions in the future. Therefore, further survey research with a larger sample size, specifically tailored to these regions, will be necessary for subsequent studies on the changes and persistence of regionalism. ■

References

Kang, Won-taek. 2003. *Korean Election Politics: Ideology, Region, Generation, and Media*. Seoul: Purunghil.

Kang, Won-taek. 2019. “Reorganization of Party Support and Changes in Regionalism: Focusing on the 2018 Local Election Results in the Yeongnam Region.” *Journal of Korean Politics*, 18(2), 5-27.

Kim, Yong-chul and Cho, Young-ho. 2015. “The Socio-Psychological Foundation of Regionalist Political Structures: An Evolution into ‘Symbolic Regionalism’?” *Journal of Korean Politics*, 14(1), 93-128.

Noh, Ki-woo, Jeong, Min-seok, and Lee, Hyun-woo. 2018. “The Persistence and Change of Regionalism in Yeongnam and Honam Regions: Focusing on Experimental Research on Regional Grievances.” *Journal of the Association for 21st Century Political Science*, 28(3), 1-24.

Moon, Woo-jin. 2017. “Characteristics and Changes in Regionalist Voting: Theoretical Issues and Empirical Analysis.” *Korean Journal of Legislative Studies*, 23(1), 81-111.

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Jeong, Jae-do and Lee, Jae-mook. 2018. “A Study on the Changes in Regionalist Voting Behavior in the Yeongnam Region.” *Korean Political Science Review*, 26(4), 59-92.

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[1] Even when analyzing the favorability gap of major politicians in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Gwangju/Jeolla regions based on respondents' places of origin rather than residence, no significant changes are observed. Candidate Yoon Suk-yeol received a favorability score of 3.1 from respondents from Gwangju/Jeolla, while President Moon Jae-in and candidate Lee Jae-myung recorded favorability scores of 3.8 and 3.6, respectively, from respondents from Daegu/Gyeongbuk.

[2]The favorability gap in evaluations of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party among voters in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Gwangju/Jeolla regions is similarly observed when changing the respondents' regional affiliation from place of residence to place of origin. The Democratic Party received a favorability score of only 3.3 from respondents from Daegu/Gyeongbuk (People Power Party: 5.0), while the People Power Party garnered a favorability score of only 2.7 from respondents from Honam in this survey (Democratic Party: 5.6).

[3]However, when the approximately 1,000 respondents included in the survey are divided by region and age, the number of individuals allocated to each regional/generational subgroup decreases significantly, necessitating caution in interpreting the analysis of these subgroups.

■ Author: Lee Jae-mook_Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; Director of Public Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; Team Leader, BK21 Global Democracy and Human Security Research Team, Department of Political Science and International Relations. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Iowa and currently serves as the Director of Education for the Korean Political Science Association and the Secretary-General of the Korean Association of Party Studies. His main research areas include political behavior, political processes, and American politics. His recent edited works include "Korean Parties and Democracy Diagnosed in the Political Arena" (2018, co-authored), "American Politics and East Asian Foreign Policy" (2017, co-authored), and "US-Korea Politics: Challenges and Changes" (2014, co-authored).

■ Editor: Jeon Ju-hyun_EAI Research Fellow

    Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr