[EAI Working Paper] Factors Influencing South Korean Views on Allying with the U.S.: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications

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Editor's Note

On November 13, 2020, the East Asia Institute (EAI) and the Brookings Institution jointly held the second online seminar in the series titled "Prospects for U.S.-South Korea Cooperation in an Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition." In session 1: politics and security, Sook Jong Lee stated that, based on survey results from 2005 to 2020 conducted by the EAI on Korean Identity, Koreans' support for the ROK-U.S. alliance has strengthened since the mid-2000s. Over the past 15 years, support for the ROK-U.S. alliance has increased by 17.6 percent, and the support base has remained solid regardless of ideology and political orientation. Meanwhile, regarding a survey question on the awareness of threats from other countries, it shows that people are more supportive of ROK-U.S. alliances when they perceive greater threats from North Korea. In addition, concerning a survey question on U.S.-China competition, more than 64 percent responded that South Korea should maintain a neutral stance amid U.S.-China competition. However, if they had to choose between the U.S. and China, more than twice as many people responded they would choose the U.S. As conflict between the U.S. and China intensifies, awareness of threats has increased, and this suggests that intensifying U.S.-China competition could negatively affect the ROK-U.S. alliance. Considering the transactional approach that the Trump administration exhibited towards its allies, the new Biden administration’s stance of respecting the alliance is reassuring to Koreans. It is expected to have a positive impact on the ROK-U.S. alliance. Furthermore, as the South Korean government strengthens regional and global cooperation in areas such as democracy, health, and climate change, South Korea will be able to enhance cooperation with the U.S. in the aforementioned areas.

Quotes from the Paper

Introduction

Smaller countries tend to seek alliances with stronger nations when their geopolitical environment is unfavorable. South Korea’s alliance with the United States is supported by this geopolitical rationale and is also rooted historically. By aiding in both the liberation of South Korea from its 35-year Japanese colonial rule and its defense against North Korea’s invasion during the Korean War (1950-1953), the U.S. established a historical legacy that underpins the 1953 mutual security agreement, which continues to this date. However, the transition of South Korea (hereafter, Korea or ROK) from an impoverished nation to a developed democracy has made Koreans more conscious of establishing an equal partnership with their security patron. This is considered a natural development given Korea’s progress and democratization.

Autonomy vs. Alliance

Snyder (2018) identifies the geopolitical environment, rising national capacity, and domestic politics as three major factors influencing Korea’s strategic choices. Among the possible four strategies based on the autonomy versus alliance axis and the peninsula-focused parochialism versus internationalism axis, he argues that Korea’s strategy has evolved from parochial alliance dependency to alliance-enabled internationalism. As Korea is relatively weak compared to surrounding nations including China, Japan, and Russia, it faces limitations in its strategic choices. Consequently, it is difficult for Korea to withdraw from its alliance with the U.S., and its domestic politics plays a less determining role in its strategic choices compared to other nations. This is a valid point considering how the South Korean government and political parties remain committed to the alliance regardless of their ideological preferences. In terms of public opinion, however, there has been a notable change. Foreign policies tend to be more determined by technocrats and experts compared to other internally oriented economic and social policies. Nevertheless, they also lie increasingly under the scrutiny of the media and advocacy citizen groups. How foreign policy issues are framed within the context of domestic politics is important in determining the level of public support. Accordingly, managing public opinion is crucial for sustaining public support for the alliance.

Factors Affecting ROK-U.S. Alliance Support

This section compares alliance support across groups divided by different features and views. Nine variables are grouped into five categories, in addition to two demographic variables. Survey respondents are divided into three groups. The first group consists of individuals who favor autonomous diplomacy, selecting a score from the 0 to 3 spectrum. The second group is composed of individuals with a neutral view, selecting from the 4 to 6 spectrum. The third group consists of those in support of the alliance, selecting from the 7 to 10 spectrum. The percentage proportions of these three groups—favoring autonomy, neutrality, and alliance—are 19.4%, 47.4%, and 33.3%, respectively, out of a total of 1,003 respondents.

Correlation Analysis

This section examines the correlation among the considered variables. The purpose of correlation analysis is to examine the direction and degree of interaction among all variables. Several variables show high degrees of correlation with each other. For instance, the level of support for the alliance positively correlates with the following variables: 1) threat perception of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, 2) favorability of the U.S. over China within the U.S.-China hegemonic competition, 3) favorable sentiment towards the U.S., and 4) weaker commitment to democracy.

Hierarchical Regression Analysis

This section examines the level of influence among different variables. Model 1 examines three demographic variables: greater age and lower educational levels were observed to increase support for the ROK-U.S. alliance. Model 2 then incorporates all discussed variables in a cross-tabulation to perform simple correlation analyses. Among the threat perceptions, North Korea’s nuclear threat and the U.S.-China competition threat remain the most significant in determining different attitudes within the autonomy-alliance spectrum. The threat posed by the rise of China loses its statistical significance when correlated with alliance attitude in this hierarchical regression analysis. As observed in the simple correlation analysis, the threat perception of North Korea’s nuclear program is positively correlated with the level of support for the alliance. It is also notable that the threat perception arising from U.S.-China competition is statistically significant in determining alliance attitude in this model, unlike in the previous simple correlation analysis. In particular, those who perceive the hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China as a threat to Korea’s national interests are less supportive of the alliance with the U.S. This finding suggests that the Korean public is likely to perceive the burden of alliance ties with the U.S. as increasingly costly, along with rising bilateral competition between the two great powers. The fear of entanglement in a U.S.-led conflict will also increase, although the majority still favors the U.S. as a more dependable security guarantor. It is noteworthy that the desirable position in the U.S.-China competition loses its direct influence on alliance attitude, although there was a statistically significant correlation between the two variables in the previous model. On the other hand, favorability remains a strong influence on people’s support for the ROK-U.S. alliance. Additionally, the relationship between a higher commitment to democracy and a lower level of support for the alliance remains statistically significant in this model.

Conclusion

This paper aimed to identify potential factors that can influence Koreans’ views on the ROK-U.S. alliance. The level of support for the alliance is measured on a numerical spectrum ranging from 0 (autonomy) to 10 (alliance). Three statistical methods were employed to identify significant relationships between these factors and support for the alliance. First, a cross-tabulation analysis was conducted to compare group differences in alliance views. Second, a correlation analysis was performed to assess the degree of association between the different factors and whether they exerted a positive or negative influence on alliance perception. Third, a hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to measure the relative weight of influence of each factor compared to others.

Author’s Biography

Sook Jong Leeis a Professor of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University and a Senior Fellow at the East Asia Institute. She has been directing the Asian Democracy Research Network since its inception in 2015, leading a network of approximately nineteen research organizations across Asia to promote democracy with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy. Her recent publications include Transforming Global Governance with Middle Power Diplomacy: South Korea’s Role in the 21st Century (ed., 2016) and Keys to Successful Presidency in South Korea (ed., 2013 and 2016).