The Future of American Hegemony: Where is the U.S. Headed After Trump?

"The Future of American Hegemony: Where is the U.S. Headed After Trump?"

EAI has conducted various research projects, including 'US-China Competition for the Asia-Pacific Order in 2017', setting the US-China relationship as the most significant variable influencing the future world order. Following the global financial crisis originating in the US in 2008, China's rise and challenge intensified, drawing the attention of academia and policy circles primarily to China's trajectory. Debates have ensued, with some predicting that China would pose an order-conforming challenge within the US-led liberal order, while others anticipated that China would pursue a new Sino-centric hegemonic order reflecting a balance of power.[i] In response, EAI published a report in July of this year that forecasts the dynamics of the US-China relationship based on China's growth stages, projecting potential conflicts in four domains: trade, technology, energy, and military security (EAI US-China Relations Report Vol. 4: Seung Joo Lee, Young-ja Bae, Wang-hui Lee, Jae-sung Lee).

As US containment of China intensified in the late 2010s, the focus of the debate shifted to the United States. Discussions emerged suggesting that when a challenger state grows rapidly and a reversal of hegemonic status is deemed inevitable, the hegemonic power adopts preemptive and preventive measures against the challenger. This raises questions: Does the United States possess the capability to thwart China's rise? Is the decline of American hegemony unavoidable? When might a hegemonic transition occur? Does the US, as the hegemonic power, have the will and capacity to continue providing international public goods? What is the essence of the US hegemonic order, and can it be sustained without the US? Will other countries continue to cooperate with the US hegemonic order?

These issues require not only an analysis of structural changes in the international system but also a meticulous examination of internal changes within the hegemonic power, the United States—factors operating from the 'inside-out.' For instance, Trumpism, characterized by Trump's 'America First' approach, unilateralism, and transactional diplomacy, along with the 'Trump risk,' must be observed more precisely within the context of domestic politics, not solely in relation to the decline of American hegemony and US-China competition.

EAI established a Future of the US research team, which has operated a project over the past year through research meetings to envision the future of American society, economy, politics, and foreign relations in the 2030s. The draft was presented at the Korean Political Science Association's Fall Conference on October 25th and is published below in the form of an EAI Special Report.

1. Byong Kwon Son: The Emergence of White Nationalist Identity Politics and the Future of the United States [Read Report]

2. Soo Young Lee: Demographic and Cultural Shifts in the United States and its Future [Read Report]

3. Jeong Hun Min: American Electoral Politics and the Future of the United States [Read Report]

4. Jong Gon Lee: The US Executive Branch and Executive-Legislative Relations and the Future of the United States [Read Report]

5. Jae Sung Lee: The Current State of Trump Administration's Foreign Policy and the Future of the United States [Read Report]

The domestic changes and future trends in the United States need to be considered in the context of the resurgence of right-wing populism and nationalism prevalent in advanced industrial societies. Within advanced industrial nations, dissatisfaction with relative national decline due to neoliberal globalization, coupled with growing internal income inequality and cultural heterogeneity, is fueling the revival of nostalgic nationalism and the emergence of populist political tactics, with the Trump phenomenon being a prime example. The reports by Byong Kwon Son and Soo Young Lee demonstrate that identity politics of white nationalism are operating behind the Trumpist phenomenon. According to Byong Kwon Son

Soo Young Lee's work also points to 'non-economic' factors, such as the vague fear among the white demographic of losing their privileged position as the mainstream in the US, as the root cause for the rise of white racism centered around Trump. This sense of crisis has led to support for Trump's stringent immigration restriction policies, irrespective of empirical evidence regarding the actual negative impact of future demographic changes in the US on national competitiveness or the lives of white people. Here, the category of whiteness is closely linked to 'American identity,' serving to define who is recognized as a 'true American' and, simultaneously, as a basis for discriminating against and excluding what is deemed 'un-American'.

The politics of cultural identity in the United States unfolds within the context of changes in domestic political processes. Jeong Hun Min draws attention to the polarization of American politics since the 1970s, noting the intensification of ideological divisions and political conflicts between the Democratic and Republican parties amidst strengthening party identification among voters. The election of Trump in 2016 is presented as a major outcome of Trump's strategy to mobilize the white middle class, accurately reading these trends in American electoral politics. It is projected that future US leaders will also adopt strategies to solidify their voter base and maximize turnout by highlighting party-centric issues.

Jong Gon Leeidentifies intra-party factional politics, along with party polarization, as key variables that will shape future American politics. He observes that party members are forming new factions based on ideology, increasing their political influence, and pursuing independent agendas. He concludes that it is necessary to monitor the growth of these intra-party factions to predict changes in congressional politics.

Finally, Jae Sung Lee analyzes Trump's foreign policy in terms of changes in the hegemonic order and forecasts the future direction of American hegemony. He posits that current US foreign policy must be explained by the confluence of the individual variable of Trump, the domestic variable of political polarization in the US, and the international system variable of changes in the hegemonic order. Based on hegemonic theory, he projects the US's hegemonic capacity and intentions. Given the trend of domestic political polarization, he anticipates that the US will attempt to reduce its provision of international public goods in response to relative hegemonic decline, exhibiting a more predatory form of hegemony. The crucial question is whether allies and friendly nations will support these hegemonic shifts, making the success of China's peripheral diplomacy a key variable.

In summary, the changes occurring in the United States today are not historically unique phenomena but rather a structural transformation that will solidify as a trend over the next decade, combining elements of international system changes due to hegemonic decline, political polarization common to advanced countries, and the resurgence of nationalism. These changes will manifest externally as a domestic orientation stemming from weakened hegemony, reduced provision of public goods, and a transactional approach, posing significant challenges to South Korea. However, conversely, they may open a window of opportunity for constructing a non-hegemonic, liberal international order, serving as an occasion for South Korea to assert its role as a middle power.

[i] Schweller and Pu, “After Unipolarity: China’s Vision of International Order in an Era of US Decline,” International Security 36, 1(Summer 2011); Michael Swaine, America’s Challenge (2013); Michael Swaine et al, China’s Military and the US-Japan Alliance in 2030 (2013); David Shambaugh, Tangled Titans: The United States and China (2013); Adam Liff and G. John Ikenberry, “Racing toward Tragedy?” International Security 39:2 (2014); Lyle Goldstein, Meeting China Halfway (2015); Thomas Christensen, The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power (2015).

■ Author: Yeol Son_ Director of EAI and Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. He has served as Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University, Dean of Underwood International College, and President of the Association for Japanese Studies. He is currently the President of the Korean Political Science Association. His main research areas include international political economy, Japanese foreign policy, and East Asian international relations. Recent publications include Japan and Asia's Contested Order (2018, with T.J. Pempel), South Korea's Middle Power Diplomacy(2017, co-edited with Sang-bae Kim and Seung Joo Lee), and Understanding Public Diplomacy in East Asia(2016, with Jan Melissen).

Research Team

■ Jeong Hun Min_ Professor at the Americas Research Division, Korea National Diplomatic Academy. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Georgia and previously served as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Northeastern State University. His main research areas include American politics, ROK-US relations, and North Korea-US relations. Recent publications include an evaluation and outlook for the 2nd North Korea-US summit, Trump's political objectives and the denuclearization process of North Korea, the emergence of Trump and security in Northeast Asia, Vote Determinants in Korean Gubernatorial Elections, Trump's 'America First' policy and contentious issues in ROK-US security relations, Do Campaigns Matter Outside the United States?, and Equilibrium and Enlightenment in Korean Presidential Elections.

■ Son Byung-kwon_Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Chung-Ang University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Michigan. His main research areas include American politics, U.S. foreign policy, and comparative legislative and party politics. Recent publications include "Is American Congressional Politics Still a Model of Democracy?: The U.S. Congress Captured by Party Politics" (2018) and "Understanding the Rise of American Nationalism in the Trump Era" (2017).

■ Lee Soo-young_Professor of English Language and Literature at Hanyang Cyber University. She received her Ph.D. in American Studies from the University of Texas at Austin. Her main research areas include American ethnic minorities, minority cultures, U.S. immigration history, Asian American literature/culture, and minority identity and gender politics. Recent publications include "Mapping Korean American Literary Studies in Korea 1994-2016" (2018) and "Masculinity First, Asian After: Justin Lin’s Strategies to ‘Mainstream’ a New Generation of Asian American Men." (2018).

■ Lee Jong-gon_Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Ewha Womans University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from UC Berkeley. His main research areas include bureaucratic politics and policy-making. Recent publications include Faction Polarization and Ideological Realignment in South Korea (2018), Network Ties and Congressional Delegation to U.S. Federal Agencies (2018), and Executive-Legislative Conflict and Regulation Outcomes: The Case of the U.S. FCC (2016).

■ Jeon Jae-sung_Director of the National Security Research Center at EAI and Professor at Seoul National University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University and serves as a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Unification. His main research areas include international political theory, international relations history, and the ROK-U.S. alliance and Korean Peninsula studies. Major books and edited volumes include "The Threat of War and Peace Between South and North Korea" (co-authored), "Is Politics Moral?", and "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory."

■ Responsible for and edited by: Lee Young-hyun Researcher at EAI

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 207) ylee@eai.or.kr