[NSP Report 70] U.S. Policy Toward China Since the Advent of the Obama Administration: Mutual Recognition of Coexistence in Asia and Lingering Tensions

Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Chung-Ang University. He graduated from Seoul National University with a degree in Diplomacy and received a Master's degree in Political Science from the same university. He earned a Ph.D. in Political Science specializing in American Politics from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. His main research areas include American political development, American foreign policy, and the political institutions and processes of the United States and Korea. Recent research includes "The Dilemma of American Hegemony in Addressing Climate Change: Domestic Resistance to the Creation of International Public Goods," "The Final Passage of the U.S. Healthcare Reform Bill: The Abolition of the House's Automatic Execution Rule and the Choice of Obama's Executive Order," and "The Characteristics and Composition of Participants in the Tea Party Movement as a Collective Social Movement in American Politics."

I. Introduction

There are likely few regional or international political phenomena that capture the attention of both the general public and scholars as much as the future development of China and the relationship between the United States and China. Since the reforms and opening up in the late 1970s, China has achieved economic growth at a faster pace than any other region in the world. Leveraging this accumulated economic power, China has simultaneously pursued military expansion, emerging as a great power in the Asia-Pacific region comparable to the United States. In contrast, the United States, having exhausted its national strength in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan over the decade since the early 2000s, experienced the "decline of American power" theory of the 2000s anew following the 2008 financial crisis, which brought about enormous fiscal deficits and domestic economic recession. The relative weakening of the U.S. position and the rapid rise of China have emerged as global historical phenomena sufficient to raise various questions regarding China's future and the future trajectory of U.S.-China relations.

Will China continue its economic growth? Will China's economic and military growth pose a threat to the security and prosperity of neighboring countries? Will China's economic growth lead to political liberalization and democratization? In what ways will the relationship between major powers like the United States and China unfold and conclude? Will the two countries, expanding their influence in the Asia-Pacific region, inevitably face military confrontation, or can conflicts be resolved through compromise amidst non-military tensions? Will the urgent need for multifaceted cooperation between the two countries serve as a shield to avoid such conflicts? These questions are subjects of intense study for those seeking to predict China's future, observe the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and derive strategies or lessons from their patterns.

Various answers to these questions have been proposed over the past two decades. These include studies on how an established great power should handle a rising great power (Levy 1987; Mearsheimer 2001; Schweller 1994; Schweller 1999), realist perspectives on China's economic and military growth and analyses of U.S.-China relations based on them (Friedberg 2002, 2011; Mearsheimer 2001; Tellis 2013), critiques of the flaws in the "China threat" theory and arguments for the necessity of continued engagement (Lieberthal 2001; Lampton 1996; Roy 1996), comprehensive analyses of China's rise and the problems with the tendency to interpret U.S.-China relations through the lens of power transition theory (Ross and Zhu 2008; Levy 2008), and the view that the U.S.-China relationship is not predetermined but depends on the mutual management and adjustment of both countries amidst cooperation and conflict (Shambaugh 2002, 2013). While these diverse perspectives and interpretations may vary depending on the contemporary issues at the time of their writing, no one would deny that the fundamental driver of these discussions is the fact that China's rapidly growing economic power and its resultant military strength are fundamentally altering the post-Cold War unipolar system led by the United States, thereby bringing about a new international distribution of power.

In the context of these discussions on the future of U.S.-China relations, research on the characteristics of U.S.-China relations since the advent of the Obama administration in 2009 emerges as a particularly interesting research topic. It is of considerable interest to examine the content of the "pivot to Asia" policy consistently pursued by the Obama administration, given that the United States, the established great power, is experiencing relative hegemonic decline in terms of international power distribution while simultaneously facing governance challenges and economic stagnation. Understanding how the various named China policies of the Obama administration—"return to Asia," "rebalance to Asia," "pivot to Asia"—were implemented, what Chinese responses they encountered, and how the U.S. subsequently adjusted its approach offers a valuable exploratory analysis into whether the relationship between a rising power and an established power can be a journey of coexistence and shared prosperity over the long term, rather than one of unilateral victory and defeat. As David Shambaugh points out, in a reality where the relationship between the two countries is increasingly moving towards managing conflict rather than expanding cooperation (Shambaugh 2013), the exploration of coexistence patterns between these "tangled titans," as suggested by the title of his edited volume, appears to be a crucial area of research. The China policy pursued by the Obama administration since 2009 provides a sufficient research basis for such pattern analysis.

To this end, the following Chapter II will provide an overview of the Obama administration's first-term policy toward China, launched in 2009. Section 1 will describe the development of the U.S. "pivot to Asia" policy, beginning with the trajectory of U.S.-China relations following President Barack Obama's visit to China in 2009, highlighting his self-proclaimed status as the first Asia-Pacific American president, and the subsequent tensions between the two countries. It will then explain the content of the "multilateralism in Asia" framework proposed by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton amidst maritime territorial disputes near China and tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula, followed by the process of reconciliation of bilateral tensions during President Hu Jintao's visit to the U.S. in 2011. Section 2 will present the background for the emergence of the U.S. "return to Asia" concept and the "new model of great power relations" proposed by China and positively responded to by the U.S.

Chapter III, which addresses China policy during the early second term of the Obama administration, will first briefly examine the nuances and causes behind the "return to Asia" policy in Section 1, following the advent of the second-term Obama foreign policy and national security team. Section 2 will then review the U.S. visit of Xi Jinping, who became China's new President in 2013, its outcomes, and the future direction of U.S.-China relations in relation to his proposed "new model of great power relations." The concluding chapter will summarize the preceding discussions and examine their implications.

II. The Obama Administration's Policy Toward China

Just as President Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China brought about significant changes in U.S.-China relations and the global power structure, President Obama was acutely aware of the potential impact of China's rise on U.S.-China relations and the power structure in Asia and the world. However, while the U.S. maintained its position as a powerful hegemonic state in the early 1970s when a multipolar order was beginning to emerge, by the late 2000s, its hegemonic status was under substantial threat due to a prolonged domestic economic downturn, resulting in high unemployment and slowing growth, coupled with the "rise of the rest," including China's rapid military and economic expansion. In this qualitatively changed environment, President Obama recognized that addressing global challenges urgently would be impossible through U.S. efforts alone. Therefore, he sought to resolve issues through multilateral frameworks involving U.S. participation, particularly aiming to secure China's cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. President Obama foresaw the need to establish effective multilateral frameworks beyond bilateral cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, a notion that had been developing even before his presidential candidacy (Obama 2007).

Upon entering the White House in 2009 as the first African American president, Obama acknowledged China's status as a rising great power and began adjusting U.S.-China relations accordingly. China, in turn, could not but acknowledge the stake of the United States, the de facto leading power in the Asia-Pacific region. Against this backdrop, following the advent of the Obama administration, the positions of "The United States welcomes a peacefully rising and prosperous China" and "China supports a U.S. that contributes to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region" began to align, and despite various conflicts, bilateral relations proceeded with mutual recognition of the need for cooperation.

Despite this overall mutual recognition, the United States consistently urged China to become a "responsible stakeholder" befitting its status as a great power. The U.S. repeatedly reminded China that it should not act as a "selective stakeholder," oscillating between the status of a great power and a developing country depending on the situation and issue, but rather as a "comprehensive stakeholder." Concurrently, the U.S. demanded that China's actions adhere to internationally accepted norms and rules. This U.S. stance and the resulting bilateral tensions were particularly highlighted in issues such as maritime territorial disputes near China, human rights issues in China, and the U.S. trade deficit with China, which became sources of conflict throughout the first term of the Obama administration.

Overall, since the Obama administration took office, the U.S. and China have developed a relationship where cooperation is inevitable not only for their bilateral ties but also for resolving issues in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. This relationship development laid the groundwork for the emergence of the "new model of great power relations" or "new type of great power relations," which would later redefine the relationship between rising and established great powers. However, despite both countries' pledges of coexistence without inevitable conflict, their relationship continues to unfold amidst tensions surrounding the U.S. emphasis on "responsible stakeholder" and "adherence to international rules," and China's assertion of "respect for core interests." If these tensions and conflicts escalate, bilateral relations tend to enter a significant cooling-off period, while high-level meetings, such as summit talks, have also led to the resolution of tensions and the mending of conflicts, ushering in new phases of friendly cooperation... (continued)