Sakamoto Ryoma of the 21st Century? Political Entrepreneurial Leadership: A Study of Hashimoto Toru's Leadership

EAI Japan Studies Panel Report No. 1

Author

Park Myung-hee, Postdoctoral Researcher, BK21 Project Team, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Ewha Womans University. She graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ewha Womans University and worked at Global Sharing Movement. After serving as a visiting researcher at Keio University in Japan in 2009, she received her Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ewha Womans University in 2011 (Dissertation title: "Political Change and Civil Society in Japan since the 1990s: Focusing on Advocacy by Elderly Welfare NPOs"). Her published papers include "Two Humanisms in Japanese Civil Society" (2010, Journal of Japanese Studies, co-authored), "Changes in Japanese Party Politics and NPO Advocacy" (2011, Korean Political Science Review), and "Elderly Welfare Governance and NPOs in Japan" (2012, Journal of Japanese Studies).

I. Introduction

In recent years, Japan has been experiencing a "Ryoma craze." The drama about Sakamoto Ryoma, broadcast in January 2010, achieved a high viewership rating of 23.2%, and Ryoma-themed travel packages have become popular, indicating the popularity of the "Ryoma business" (<Mainichi Shimbun> 2010/01/03). Sakamoto Ryoma was a samurai from Tosa who defected from his domain during the late Tokugawa period. He presented a vision of building a modern nation capable of confronting Western powers by accumulating economic strength through opening the country during the late Tokugawa era, and he achieved the Meiji Restoration by demonstrating negotiation skills that led to the alliance of Satsuma and Choshu, the two major forces of the revolution, thereby bringing down the Shogunate.

The recent fascination with Ryoma, a symbol of transformation, reflects Japan's stagnant political and economic situation. Since the 1990s, rapidly declining economic growth rates and expanding fiscal deficits, coupled with the world's highest proportion of elderly population, have plunged Japan into a structural crisis where social vitality cannot be expected. In an attempt to overcome the social crisis through political change, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) came to power in 2009, ending 54 years of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) rule. However, this also failed to provide a fundamental solution to Japan's problems, with three prime ministers changing within three years of the DPJ's administration. Following the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, the government's crisis response capabilities further eroded public trust, causing the cabinet approval rating, which was over 80% immediately after the change of government in 2009, to fall below 25% (<Yomiuri Shimbun> 2012/09/18). The lack of political cohesion has led to a mass defection of DPJ lawmakers, including Ichiro Ozawa.

The politician currently drawing attention, reminiscent of Ryoma who led reforms to overcome Japan's turmoil, is the current Mayor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto. Sakamoto Ryoma, as a samurai who abandoned his vested interests as a member of the Tosa domain and defected, led reforms from outside the existing ruling system. Similarly, Toru Hashimoto is pursuing reforms in Japan from outside the central government and traditional party politics, centered in Osaka. Since his election as Governor of Osaka Prefecture in 2008, Hashimoto has maintained approval ratings above 70% among Osaka Prefecture residents and citizens during his tenure as Mayor of Osaka City. Considering Prime Minister Noda's approval rating of around 25% as of September 2012, his standing in the Osaka region can be readily imagined. Currently, over 50 reporters are constantly stationed at Osaka City Hall, and Hashimoto has 760,000 Twitter followers, the highest among Japanese politicians. The Japanese media's attention to Hashimoto stems from the expectation that he could influence national politics with the backing of strong regional support. Indeed, according to a public opinion poll conducted by the Sankei Shimbun in January 2012, Toru Hashimoto was ranked first as the most suitable politician to be Japan's leader (21.4%), followed by Shintaro Ishihara (9.6%) and Tetsuya Okada (8.3%) (<Sankei Shimbun> 2012/01/16).

Why does Japanese public opinion place its hopes on Hashimoto? How does Hashimoto's leadership differ from existing Japanese political leadership? As a recently prominent political leader in Japan, there is almost no prior research on Hashimoto. Generally, political leaders with popular support are approached through their populist characteristics. That is, their personal qualities adept at performance, their strategic maneuvering based on a dichotomy of good versus evil and allies versus enemies, and their methods of mass mobilization can serve as evaluation criteria. However, such an approach may emphasize the individual's political qualities and tactics at the expense of neglecting the structural factors that enable leadership to be exercised. By focusing on transactional leadership that prioritizes immediate issues to secure public support, it has the limitation of diminishing the potential for transformational leadership that can influence both the present and the future.

Jean Blondel likens leaders to "prisoners of their environment," emphasizing that the source of political leadership must be explained in relation to the environment. According to him, while the primary authority of political leadership may stem from legal status, the institutional and situational environments that help or hinder the leader determine the role content and the strength of influence (Blondel 1987, 4-5). R.C. Tucker identifies diagnosis, prescription, and mobilization as three elements of ideal leadership. Diagnosis involves the leader's assessment of real-world problems and understanding of the situation; prescription involves proposing solutions to problems, separate from implementation; and mobilization refers to the ability to mobilize resources to solve problems. In summary, political leadership involves interacting with structural, political, and situational factors to identify real-world problems, propose solutions in the form of reform goals and policies, pursue transformation by securing popular support, and enhance its influence.

This definition of leadership also connects with the discussion of the political entrepreneur, explained through Joseph Schumpeter's concept of creative destruction (Martin & Thomas 2011, 3). A political entrepreneur is an individual who disrupts the existing market equilibrium through the mobilization of resources that did not exist in the past, thereby realizing creative destruction. Political entrepreneurs develop innovative policy values and ideas, design reformist policies based on these as prototypes, mobilize and implement resources, and secure leadership positions through elections. John W. Kingdon conceptualized policy change as a confluence of multiple streams of problems, policies, and politics, defining the actors who drive policy change as policy entrepreneurs (Kingdon 1984). This paper aims to understand the characteristics of Hashimoto's leadership by approaching him from the perspective of a political entrepreneur, given his growing national influence based on local popular support. The reason for explaining Hashimoto through the concept of a political entrepreneur is that he is continuously attempting social marketing of his policy prescriptions for the crises facing Japan and Osaka, thereby expanding his support.

The approach to Hashimoto in this paper is divided into three main parts. First, it presents the flow of ideas and problems in recent Japanese political undercurrents as the political opportunity structure that allows Hashimoto's leadership to emerge. Second, it examines Hashimoto's reformist alternatives as prescriptions for structural and situational environmental factors. Third, it identifies the strategic characteristics Hashimoto employs to mobilize the public in order to lead reforms.

II. The Paradox of Crisis and the Emergence of Hashimoto

Context is a crucial factor in determining who will succeed as a political leader. Context includes personal background, culture, historical factors, and the challenges faced by politicians (Keohane 2012, 104). Hashimoto is a political leader who exemplifies the paradox of crisis, seizing new opportunities amidst personal and Japanese political crises.

Unlike most politicians in Japan, where second-generation politicians are mainstream, Hashimoto does not come from a political family and is not a former bureaucrat. Born in Shibuya, Tokyo, in 1969, Hashimoto grew up in difficult circumstances in a single-parent household. He moved to Suita City, Osaka Prefecture, in the fifth grade of elementary school and spent his school years in Higashiyodogawa Ward, an area known for its lower socioeconomic status. His father, from whom he was separated in childhood, was reportedly a yakuza member from the Higashiyodogawa area (<AERA> 2011/11/14). Hashimoto entered Kitano High School, which is difficult for students from the Higashiyodogawa area with lower educational attainment to get into, and then went on to Waseda University before passing the bar exam and becoming a lawyer. While practicing law in Osaka, Hashimoto unexpectedly appeared on a local Osaka radio program, which led him to become a regular on programs such as Asahi Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) and Nippon TV's legal consultation shows.

Hashimoto, gaining popularity as a television personality, was scouted by Makoto Koga, then Chairman of the LDP's Election Strategy Committee, and Taichi Sakaiya, former Minister of State for Economic Planning. In January 2008, he ran for Governor of Osaka Prefecture with the recommendation and support of the LDP and Komeito, winning the election and becoming the youngest governor. In November 2011, he ran for Mayor of Osaka and succeeded in taking office. Notably, his opponent in this election, Kunio Hiramatso, was the incumbent mayor at the time, receiving support from the LDP, DPJ, and the Communist Party, and had expressed opposition to Hashimoto's Osaka Metropolis plan. Therefore, the results of the 2011 Osaka mayoral election can be seen as implicitly reflecting the dissatisfaction of Osaka citizens with established political parties and their expectations for Hashimoto.

A politician from outside the established parties and not of second generation has surpassed the existing ruling elite, securing over 70% approval ratings and is considered the top contender for the next political leader. This paper aims to organize the flow of issues in central and regional politics as a political opportunity structure that allowed Hashimoto to emerge, and the dominant reform ideas that lie at the undercurrent of Japanese politics in the 2000s.

1. Dysfunction of the Japanese Political and Economic System

Japan's economic downturn, which began with the bubble economy in the early 1990s, has yet to find a clear path to recovery, symbolized by the 'lost 20 years.' As of 2010, Japan's nominal GDP was 479 trillion yen, the same level as in 1992. In 1989, Japan's long-term debt was 254 trillion yen (national 188 trillion, local 161 trillion), equivalent to 61% of the GDP at the time. By 2009, it had reached 819 trillion yen (national 621 trillion, local 198 trillion), or 172% of the GDP. In 2011, the general account budget expenditure was 92.4 trillion yen, with revenue only 40.9 trillion yen, meaning revenue covered only 44.3% of expenditure (Ministry of Finance, 2011).

Since the 1990s, measures taken to address this economic crisis have included political system reforms. Political reforms, such as the introduction of the single-member district system in 1994, were implemented with the goal of enhancing political efficacy. However, the prolonged recession persisted, and the inefficient, bureaucracy-centric administrative operations continued. Koizumi's structural reforms, initiated in 2001 with overwhelming public support, resulted in side effects such as widening income and regional disparities. The subsequent effort to overcome the crisis in Japan was a change of government. In 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), under the slogan 'From Concrete to People,' promised bold policy changes. The DPJ presented its manifesto including eradicating tax waste, supporting child-rearing and education, unifying pensions and implementing a minimum pension system, regional sovereignty, and job creation. Riding on the public dissatisfaction with the existing ruling elite, the DPJ won a landslide victory over the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), securing 308 out of 480 seats. Voters chose the DPJ in the 2009 general election with the expectation that a change of government could halt the decline of Japanese society. However, as of August 2012, no significant social effects from the DPJ's time in power have materialized. Amidst the increased difficulty of economic recovery for Japan following the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, key DPJ pledges from 2009, such as child allowances, income guarantees for farming households, and toll-free highways, have all been withdrawn. According to a Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll in November 2011, 81% of respondents answered that 'the vote cast in the election is not reflected in actual politics,' an increase from 67% in February 2008, before the DPJ took power. Furthermore, 81% also responded that policy decisions led by the government were not being made properly (<Yomiuri Shimbun> 2011/11/24). A survey by NHK's Board of Governors in July 2012 revealed that while the cabinet approval rating was 19% and the DPJ's approval rating was 19%, the LDP's approval rating was also low at 20%. This survey result reflects Japan's current predicament of existing dissatisfaction but a lack of alternatives... (continued)