A Study on Factors Affecting Voter Turnout

-Focusing on the 5th Local Elections-

<Abstract>

I. Current Status and Challenges in Discussions on Enhancing Voter Turnout in Korean Elections

1. Current Status of Discussions on Measures to Increase Voter Turnout in Korea

Declining voter turnout is a phenomenon occurring not only in Korea but in most countries worldwide. While most countries are making various efforts to prevent declining turnout and increase voter participation, the issue of declining turnout is considered particularly serious in Korea due to the rapid pace and magnitude of the decline compared to other nations. Although there was a partial rebound in turnout in the 17th General Election in 2004 and the 4th Local Elections in 2006 compared to the 16th General Election and the 3rd Local Elections, respectively, the subsequent presidential election in 2007 saw a turnout of 63.0%, and the 18th General Election in 2008 recorded a turnout of 46.0%, the lowest ever, intensifying the debate over a "turnout crisis."

As shown in <Table 1>, the sensitivity to declining voter turnout has further increased in recent years, with by-elections consistently recording turnout in the 20-30% range. Furthermore, the superintendent elections held from 2008 to 2009 saw turnout rates of 12.3% in Gyeonggi, 15.3% in Daejeon, 15.5% in Seoul, 17.2% in Chungnam, and 21.0% in Jeonbuk, seemingly doubling the perceived severity of the turnout issue.

<Table 1> Status of Voter Turnout in Past By-elections (%)

Source: Lee Seong-ryong (2008), National Election Commission <2008-2009 Superintendent Election Information System>

The existing discussions on the causes of this declining voter turnout are summarized in <Table 2> and can be broadly categorized into macro-level factors (system/culture), micro-level factors (individual level), and institutional dimensions.

<Table 2> Analytical Framework and Theoretical Basis for Declining Voter Turnout in Korea

* Issues for which theoretical debate on their effects is ongoing in academia

2. Re-establishing Discussions on Enhancing Voter Turnout

However, past discussions contain several significant problems. Above all, there is a tendency to overemphasize the importance of "voter turnout," a key indicator of political participation. While it is clear that representatives elected in elections with excessively low turnout may face issues of representation and legitimacy, various counterarguments exist. First, it is argued that the current decline in turnout is a phenomenon resulting from the establishment of an autonomous political culture and the disappearance of mobilization voting from the authoritarian era, and that simply increasing turnout does not necessarily lead to a greater reflection of the public will. Second, while agreeing that declining turnout can cause legitimacy problems, it is also argued that "qualitative representation issues, such as inequality in voter turnout or alienation due to a lack of alternatives, cannot be reduced to quantitative turnout issues." Third, there is an active interpretation that "legally, varying levels of electoral participation when there are no suitable alternatives reflect citizens' healthy democratic consciousness, and citizens' responsibility is realized passively by accepting the election results regardless of their participation." Fourth, from a typical elitist perspective, it is argued that high participation may not be desirable as the masses are slaves to popular enthusiasm or easily led by elite manipulation, and conversely, the politically satisfied public may be less inclined to participate. There is also an interpretation that high participation is actually an expression of political dissatisfaction.

Ultimately, voter turnout cannot be an absolute indicator for measuring the level of electoral participation and the maturity of democracy. By overly emphasizing the quantitative indicator of collective-level voter turnout, there are instances where the enhancement of voter turnout is mistakenly perceived as the primary fundamental right. Voter turnout is merely one dimension of electoral participation and is a secondary indicator. The most crucial value in electoral participation is that all voters must be able to freely exercise their rights. From the perspective of enhancing electoral participation, rather than increasing voter turnout, it is paramount to equally and substantially guarantee the right to participate for all voters who possess legitimate authority to ensure representation. Therefore, by excessively emphasizing the enhancement of voter turnout itself, careful consideration must be given to whether the recently discussed mandatory voting system or preferential voting system could potentially conflict with the higher value of autonomous and free electoral participation.

Furthermore, whereas existing election management has primarily focused on 'clean elections,' meaning fair elections, and suppressing factors of 'election overheating,' there is now a need to transition towards fostering fair yet vigorous competition. The initial purpose of the Public Official Election Act, first enacted in 1994 following democratization, as stated in Article 1 of the General Provisions, is "to contribute to the development of democratic politics by ensuring that elections under the Constitution of the Republic of Korea and the Local Autonomy Act are conducted fairly through the free will of the people and democratic procedures, and by preventing election-related irregularities." This confirms that the fundamental intent lies in fair elections and the prevention of irregularities. Due to election management aimed at preventing irregularities and maintaining election fairness, violations and the proportion of measures taken have decreased compared to previous elections, as seen in the 5th local elections in 2010. The overall number of election crackdowns is declining, with a particular downward trend in serious election offenses such as election interference by public officials and the provision of money or entertainment.

3. Evaluation of Institutional Operations and Challenges for Enhancing Voter Turnout

Examining the amendments to the Public Official Election Act made around the 5.31 Local Elections in 2006, the overall direction aligns with the research objective of expanding the representativeness of political participation and strengthening electoral competitiveness.

■ Expansion of Representativeness: 8-vote system per person: Expansion of directly elected public offices / Adjustment of voting age to 19 and guarantee of voting rights for foreign residents in local elections / Easing of absentee voting requirements / Guarantee of voting rights for overseas Koreans

■ Strengthening Electoral Competitiveness: Extension of the election campaign period / Expansion of campaign activities for preliminary candidates / Expansion of group election campaigning / Cyber campaigning, including through Twitter

Overall, it appears clear that recent amendments to election laws and management directions are shifting from a focus on increasing turnout itself to strengthening the representativeness of voter political participation and electoral competitiveness. However, there are still many provisions that prohibit preliminary candidates under the pretext of preventing pre-election campaigning, and candidates or political parties face difficulties in freely contacting voters through face-to-face, print, or online channels. It can be assessed that these have not entirely departed from the framework of fair elections... (Continued)