The Saxony-Anhalt State Election in Germany: Analyzing the AfD's Landslide Victory and Its Political and Diplomatic Implications

Executive Summary

In the September 6 state parliamentary election in Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved the best result for a far-right party in European history, securing around 44% of the vote—more than double that of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). However, with 39 seats, the party fell three short of the 42 needed for a majority, leaving the immediate prospect of a far-right state government uncertain. The most likely scenario is a prolonged deadlock in government formation, given the difficulty of forming a stable coalition among the non-AfD parties. This result is not an isolated local upset; it aligns with a national trend where polls show the AfD has overtaken the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to become the leading party. Rather than preparing for immediate policy shifts, the South Korean government and businesses should establish a phased monitoring system focusing on the government formation negotiations in Magdeburg, the ripple effects on upcoming elections in neighboring eastern German states, and the potential for Chancellor Merz’s federal government to shift further to the right.

I. Situational Analysis

The Saxony-Anhalt State Election: The AfD's Landslide Victory and Its Political Fallout

1. Background and Developments

Saxony-Anhalt is a state in the former East Germany with a population of about 2 million. Among Germany's 16 federal states, it ranks among the lowest in economic output and life expectancy [12]. This regional underdevelopment has long been identified as a breeding ground for AfD support.

In the run-up to the September 6 state election, polls had already predicted a strong showing for the AfD. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) reported pre-election support for the AfD at over 40% [5]. The Atlantic Council also raised the possibility of the party securing an absolute majority [2]. However, the actual election results surpassed even these projections.

The AfD's success in this election is not a one-off event. National polls show the AfD leading with 28% support, ahead of the CDU/CSU coalition (21%) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) (12%) [5]. Saxony-Anhalt was the first test of whether this national trend could translate into power at the state level.

2. Current Situation

Exit polls showed the AfD receiving between 44% and 44.5% of the vote [1][7][9][10][11][14][18]. This was reported as the highest vote share ever recorded by a far-right party in a European parliamentary election [11]. The CDU, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, came in a distant second with around 18.5% [10][14]. This means the AfD's support was more than double that of the CDU [1].

Seat projections give the AfD 39 seats, three short of the 42 needed for a majority [4]. The Austrian newspaper Der Standard reported that the likelihood of an absolute majority was decreasing as votes were counted [17]. In this scenario, the state parliament in Magdeburg will immediately face a deadlock in forming a government. There is no clear combination of other parties that could form a majority coalition to exclude the AfD [4].

Immediately after the vote count, AfD state party leader Ulrich Siegmund declared, “We have achieved what we wanted, and we have made history in this state” [4]. He has previously stated his intention to make Saxony-Anhalt a model case for an AfD-led government [12]. The Spanish newspaper ABC described the atmosphere at the AfD's state headquarters on Alter Markt street in Magdeburg, noting that the party's characteristic protectionist identity was on display as they celebrated their victory by toasting with a local white wine (Weissburgunder) [15].

3. Key Actors and Interests

AfD (led by state party leader Ulrich Siegmund)Even if it fails to secure an absolute majority, the AfD is reportedly considering forming a minority government and then gaining power by recruiting defectors (tránsfugas) from other parties [15]. Siegmund campaigned on the message that “a fundamental political transformation is necessary” [16]. The party has long drawn its political momentum from the economic underdevelopment of the former East Germany and backlash against immigration.

Chancellor Merz and the CDUWhile the CDU is the ruling party at the federal level, it suffered a near-total defeat in Saxony-Anhalt. The CFR has framed this election as a test of a dual threat to the Merz government: the rise of the far-right combined with Russian-led hybrid warfare (cyber and information disruption) simultaneously pressuring German democracy [5]. Reporting from Magdeburg, the Finnish public broadcaster Yle noted that “questions about how long Merz can hold on to power are hanging in the air” [11].

BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance)With around 6% of the vote [2], the BSW appears too small to act as a kingmaker. However, its relevance could grow as established parties like the CDU face a shortage of options in future coalition arithmetic.

The Broader Federal Political LandscapeThe result is not seen as an event confined to the former East Germany. The Irish Times described the election as an event that has “plunged German politics into an uncertain new era” [4]. The Guardian highlighted the possibility that the AfD could become the first far-right party to win power at the state level in post-World War II Germany [1].

4. Key Issues

The first key issue is the mathematical deadlock in forming a government. With the AfD close to but short of a majority, the central question is whether the so-called ‘cordon sanitaire’ (Brandmauer), the strategy of other parties forming a coalition to exclude the AfD, can be maintained in Magdeburg. However, it has already been pointed out that even a coalition of the CDU, SPD, the Greens, and the BSW would struggle to form a stable majority [4][17].

The second issue is the AfD's expansion strategy. As Siegmund has vowed to make Saxony-Anhalt a “model for an AfD-led government” [12], the party's performance in power (or its failure) in the state will likely serve as a direct reference point for upcoming elections in other eastern German states and for the next federal election.

The third issue is the CDU's response. A key turning point for the future federal political landscape will be whether the Merz government shifts to the right on immigration and economic policy to win back AfD supporters, or whether it sticks to its existing strategy of exclusion. This choice could have ripple effects on Germany's EU policy, its stance on aid to Ukraine, and its overall immigration policy [2][5].

The fourth issue is the variable of external interference. The CFR has pointed to Russian-led information disruption and cyber operations acting as a “twin threat” alongside the rise of the AfD during this election cycle [5]. If this connection is confirmed, it could trigger serious discussions within German political circles about institutional responses to prevent election interference.

II. In-Depth Analysis

The Saxony-Anhalt State Election: An In-Depth Analysis

1. Analysis of Root Causes

The AfD's 44% vote share in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be explained by a single factor. However, the most direct driver is the structural underdevelopment of the former East Germany. Saxony-Anhalt ranks near the bottom among Germany's 16 federal states in economic output and life expectancy [12]. Thirty-five years after reunification, the economic gap with the former West Germany has not been fully closed. The generation that grew up in this region has witnessed population decline, an aging society, and industrial hollowing-out, without personally experiencing the benefits of reunification.

The issue of immigration served as a vehicle for translating this economic discontent into political language. During the campaign, AfD candidate Siegmund used the slogan “a fundamental political transformation is necessary” [16]. This was not aimed at a single policy but was rather a vote of no confidence in the entire federal political establishment. The CFR has defined this election as a dual threat to the Merz government, with the rise of the far-right and Russian-led hybrid warfare simultaneously shaking German democracy [5]. Thus, the spread of AfD support is being interpreted as a result of the interplay between domestic economic dissatisfaction and the possibility of external interference.

The fact that national polls show the AfD leading with 28%, ahead of the CDU/CSU (21%) and the SPD (12%) [5], demonstrates that the phenomenon in Saxony-Anhalt cannot be explained by local factors alone. It is a sign that fatigue with established parties is spreading beyond the former East Germany to the entire country.

2. Structural Context

Political StructureGermany's coalition government system is designed around the premise that smaller parties can play a kingmaker role. However, with the AfD winning 39 seats, close to the majority of 42, it has become difficult for the remaining parties to form a stable anti-AfD coalition with a majority [4]. While Der Standard reported that the AfD's chances of an absolute majority were decreasing as votes were counted [17], it also predicted that forming a government would be anything but smooth. This means that the long-standing principle in German politics of the ‘cordon sanitaire’ (Brandmauer or “firewall”)—the practice of mainstream parties categorically excluding the AfD as a coalition partner—is now being put to the test. The prospect of the AfD forming a minority government and then seeking to gain power by recruiting defectors from other parties [15] will be a test of how long this firewall can hold up against the new parliamentary arithmetic.

Economic StructureThe underdevelopment of Saxony-Anhalt is not merely a matter of income disparity. It is the result of a vicious cycle of youth emigration leading to an aging population, which in turn strains local finances and weakens the regional industrial base. Under these conditions, the AfD has constructed a narrative linking immigration to the issue of local resource allocation. The scene described by ABC of the toast with ‘local white wine’ at the AfD headquarters [15] symbolically reveals the party's protectionist identity. This suggests that a political brand combining economic self-sufficiency with cultural exclusion is gaining traction with voters in underdeveloped regions.

Security StructureThe CFR placed the rise of the AfD alongside Russian-led information disruption operations, labeling it a “twin threat to the Merz government” [5]. This reflects a perspective that the AfD's success may not be a purely domestic political phenomenon but could be a result of Russia's hybrid warfare aimed at fostering division within Europe. However, it is important to note that this causal link is an interpretation from a U.S.-based analytical institution, and the extent to which this framework is accepted within Germany itself requires separate verification.

3. Historical Precedents and Comparative Cases

There is no precedent in post-war Germany for a far-right party coming this close to power in a state government. Siegmund's statement that they “made history in this state” [4] is not rhetoric but a statement of fact. The Atlantic Council had been watching this election with the expectation that the AfD “could form a government with an absolute majority” [2]. Although the actual result fell short of a majority, it remains the case that this is the closest a far-right party has come to attempting to form a government as the single largest party in a Western democracy.

Comparing this result with past European election cases covered by EAI highlights its significance. In the 2017 French presidential election, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front reached the final round but was decisively defeated by Emmanuel Macron [8]. In the Dutch general election that same year, despite significant concerns about the spread of far-right populism, Prime Minister Mark Rutte's center-right party emerged victorious, leading Europe to breathe a “sigh of relief” [6]. Both cases followed a pattern where far-right forces gained momentum but were ultimately stopped at the final hurdle.

Saxony-Anhalt has the potential to be recorded as the first case to break this pattern. The Finnish public broadcaster described it as “the first time a far-right party in Europe has reached such figures in a parliamentary election” [11]. When the AfD emerged as the third-largest party in the 2017 German federal election, an EAI analysis diagnosed that Chancellor Merkel's position had weakened [3], but at that time, the AfD was not considered a contender for state-level governance. In the intervening eight years, the AfD's status has shifted from a minority party to be contained to a party that is a candidate for power.

4. Key Variables Shaping Future Developments

First is the final outcome of the government formation negotiations. The key question is whether the AfD can secure defectors from other parties to reach a majority from its current 39 seats [15]. If this scenario materializes, it would mark the actual formation of the first far-right state government in post-war Germany.

Second is the response strategy of the mainstream parties, including the CDU. With government formation expected to be difficult, as reported by Der Standard [17], the ability of an anti-AfD coalition to function stably is being tested. Whether the existing firewall principle is maintained or begins to crack during this process will influence the dynamics of future state elections and the next federal election in 2029.

Third is the extent to which this result, combined with national polling trends (AfD 28%, CDU 21%) [5], will erode Chancellor Merz's governing foundation at the federal level. While Saxony-Anhalt itself is a small state with a population of 2 million [12], the signal this result sends to voters in other eastern German states and in the west will determine the direction of the next election cycle.