North Korea and the World: Deepening of the North Korea-China-Russia Triangular Alliance and its Implications for Korean Peninsula Security

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVNRmevPtdA

■ Author: Park Won-gon_Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

■ Contact and Editing: Lim Jae-hyun_EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) | jhlim@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Analysis of the China-Russia Summit: Strengthening Anti-U.S. Coalition and Multipolar Order

There has been considerable interest in whether Kim Jong-un would appear at the recent North Korea-China summit. In conclusion, he did not appear. Hello, this is Park Won-gon with North Korea and the World. Today, I will analyze the China-Russia summit that took place on May 20 and the North Korea-China summit held on June 8 and 9. In a previous video, I discussed the U.S.-China summit. There have been numerous international events in the last couple of months.

The ongoing bilateral summits among countries linked to the Korean Peninsula undoubtedly have a significant impact on our security. In particular, messages regarding the North Korean issue are emerging in these discussions in various forms. Even the absence of a message can be interpreted as a message, and it is assessed to carry very important implications for us. Therefore, let us analyze this. First, we will examine the China-Russia summit. After inviting U.S. President Trump as a state guest, Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Russian President Vladimir Putin as a state guest again just two months later to hold talks in Beijing. The most notable feature of this summit becomes apparent when compared to the U.S.-China summit. The fact sheet released by the U.S. side after the U.S.-China summit was only two pages long. It was a very concise statement and not in the form of a joint declaration.

In contrast, the statement released by Russia and China spans an impressive 29 pages. It is a substantial document, titled 'Joint Statement on Strengthening Comprehensive Strategic Coordination and Deepening Friendly Cooperation.' The title of the statement is also quite lengthy, reflecting the detailed nature of the cooperation between the two countries across various fields. One point I would like to emphasize is that it confirms the shared worldview of China and Russia. In the early part of the statement, the phrase 'multipolar international order and more equitable governance' appears. This expression aligns with North Korea's claim of a 'fair and just multipolar order.' The multipolar international order pursued by China, Russia, and North Korea is not merely a multipolar order but one that is equitable for them and contains elements to counter the United States.

Although the statement does not specifically mention the United States, it clearly exhibits an anti-U.S. inclination. For example, expressions such as 'firmly oppose hegemony and unilateralism' and 'infringing on the sovereignty of other countries and suppressing their economic and technological development' are included. In summary, China and Russia have defined actions taken by the Trump administration, such as attempts to rescue Venezuelan President Maduro and the Iran War, as violations of other countries' sovereignty. Additionally, they argue that blocking China's high-performance semiconductor exports and prohibiting technology exports undermine the principles of free trade.

Of course, I reiterate that the name of the United States is not specified, but the intent can be clearly understood from the content. Ultimately, what China and Russia are asserting is that they firmly intend to bring the United States down from its superpower status and lead to a multipolar order where China becomes a hegemonic power. I believe that this joint statement clearly indicates that Russia is making a commitment to stand by China. It reaffirms their intention to solidify and unite the anti-U.S. coalition centered around the triangular alliance of North Korea, China, and Russia.

China and Russia's Position on the Korean Peninsula and Critique of the Three-Axis System

Secondly, it is noteworthy that based on this worldview, they are siding with North Korea regarding the Korean Peninsula issue. This is because there is no mention of 'denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula' at all. Instead, the statement only includes content about 'safeguarding peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.' However, more importantly, it states that they oppose 'threatening North Korea's security through diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, and military pressure.' This refers to the economic sanctions currently imposed on North Korea.

While it is expressed as military pressure, it signifies responding to North Korea's nuclear enhancement, and diplomatic isolation refers to the process in which North Korea brought upon itself sanctions resolutions from the UN by developing nuclear weapons, does it not? Yet, they argue that these aspects hinder North Korea's security. This expression clearly demonstrates that China and Russia are siding with North Korea. Furthermore, they mention the 'Tumen River Initiative,' indicating their intention to continue trilateral consultations regarding the Tumen River outlet rights issue with North Korea, based on the 'Eastern Border Agreement' signed by China and Russia in 1991. In 1991, China and Russia discussed the outlet rights issue through the Tumen River, which allows China to access the East Sea. They are now indicating that they genuinely intend to promote this.

China fundamentally cannot access the East Sea. To reach the East Sea, it must pass through the Tumen River, most of which borders North Korea, with the end portion bordering Russia as well. Therefore, for China to access the East Sea through the Tumen River, cooperation between North Korea and Russia is necessary, and this is included in the China-Russia summit discussions. This holds significant meaning. It indicates that North Korea, China, and Russia are moving beyond mere symbolic cooperation, as exemplified by Kim Jong-un's actions in front of President Xi Jinping during last year's Victory Day celebrations in China, to engage in substantial trilateral cooperation and projects, thereby elevating the existing level of trilateral alliance.

The 'non-nuclear states' pre-launch detection and interception capabilities refer to the kill chain we are pursuing. The kill chain of the Three-Axis System means identifying and attacking North Korea preemptively before it uses nuclear weapons. The Korean Missile Defense System (KAMD) signifies attacking key targets in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack, and the Korean Missile Defense System (KAMD) refers to South Korea's missile defense system. China and Russia specifically used the expression that they oppose this. Additionally, they mentioned 'decapitation operations and disarmament against the enemy' as a 'serious destabilizing factor.' This clearly indicates opposition to operations represented by the Killer Drone (KMPR), one of the Three-Axis System, which aims to eliminate key targets if North Korea uses nuclear weapons. They are expressing opposition to the fundamental elements of what is referred to as 'tailored extended deterrence' or 'nuclear and conventional weapon integration (CNI).' Therefore, the claims of China and Russia essentially argue that North Korea's nuclear development is an unavoidable choice for its own security, while the efforts by South Korea and the United States to deter it are provocative acts that undermine security.

What is even more concerning is that at the end of this assertion, China and Russia declared that they would respond jointly to this issue, including North Korea. Thus, they have expressed their intention to fully side with North Korea while countering the U.S. and South Korea. What is even more alarming is that while North Korea, China, and Russia are strengthening their ties, the cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan has shown signs of weakening recently. South Korea, the United States, and Japan have been closely cooperating through joint exercises to respond to the North Korean threat since the Camp David agreement. However, the last joint maritime exercise between South Korea and the United States took place in March 2025 in the southern waters off Jeju, and there have been no exercises for over a year since then. Of course, it is not that there were no plans for this, but according to reports in 2026, although the United States proposed it, South Korea effectively rejected it for various reasons, and only exercises between the United States and Japan or unilateral exercises by the United States have been conducted.

Analysis of the North Korea-China Summit: Restoration of Relations and Strengthening Economic Cooperation

As we observe the strengthening of cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia, while the South Korea-U.S. cooperation is relatively weakening, concerns about South Korea's security are inevitable. Next, I will discuss the North Korea-China summit in connection with this. President Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang. This marks his first visit to North Korea in seven years since 2019, and this is the seventh summit between North Korea and China since Kim Jong-un came to power. The immediately preceding summit was when Kim Jong-un visited Beijing during last year's Victory Day celebrations, and this time, President Xi Jinping's visit can be seen as a reciprocal visit. This holds various meanings, particularly as it is significant that President Xi Jinping's first overseas visit this year was to North Korea.

As those interested may know, President Xi Jinping's recent activities have primarily involved foreign leaders visiting China. When he does go abroad, it has been more than half a year since he last left Beijing, and the last time he left was for an inspection in Guangdong Province on November 6 and 10 of last year. This visit to North Korea marks his first departure from Beijing since then. This confirms that President Xi Jinping places significant importance on North Korea. Following last September's Victory Day, President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea was necessary to finalize the last piece of the North Korea-China relationship. The deterioration of North Korea-China relations has been sufficiently observed in various circumstances.

Thus, President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea was essential for normalizing relations between North Korea and China. Since Kim Jong-un visited China, it would be completed if President Xi Jinping visited North Korea. In the case of South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung, he visited China, and President Xi Jinping also visited South Korea, so North Korea seems to be comparing its actions in light of this. Therefore, it can be seen that President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea was necessary. From China's perspective, regarding the strategic economic relationship with the United States, did not the last U.S.-China summit discuss 'constructive strategic stability'? This was a declaration to compete within an institutional framework, which the United States effectively accepted. From this standpoint, it is assessed that there is an intention to regard North Korea as an asset and seek to strengthen the North Korea-China-Russia alliance. This is also reflected in the cooperative relationship between China and Russia mentioned earlier. Through this, China aims to demonstrate its influence on the Korean Peninsula, which I believe is largely aimed at the United States.

From North Korea's perspective, normalizing relations with China is necessary. Although it has closely aligned with Russia, without China's assistance in the economic sector, it is one of the main reasons why Kim Jong-un needs economic support and cooperation to put the local development plan '20 cities and counties' officially announced at the 9th Party Congress on a certain trajectory. Additionally, I believe there is a high possibility of a summit between North Korea and the United States. It is anticipated that this may occur after the U.S. midterm elections.

In any case, before a summit between the U.S. and North Korea takes place, it is necessary for Kim Jong-un to secure a backing from China. In this regard, I believe this visit to North Korea occurred. Let us confirm the agreements made by both sides. Although no joint statement was released, there are official statements from North Korea's Rodong Sinmun and China's People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency. I will attempt to analyze these statements.

According to the content in the Rodong Sinmun, the key term is 'specialty.' It states that 'the relationship between China and North Korea is very special.' It emphasizes that it is special due to 'the tradition of friendship, the common socialist threat, and the unchanging succession.' In other words,

'Special' is repeated three times, underscoring the close relationship between China and North Korea. This indicates that the relationship between North Korea and China has been strained. The Rodong Sinmun also states, 'Since Kim Jong-un's visit to China during last September's Victory Day, the relationship between China and North Korea has been developing.' The phrase 'developing' implies that the relationship was not good but is improving, which I believe acknowledges that their relationship has not been good. Furthermore, Kim Jong-un's other expression is that 'the friendship between China and North Korea is the most significant strategic task of the party.' At the same time, Kim Jong-un states that 'the relationship with Russia is the top priority.' In other words, the relationship with Russia is the top priority, while the relationship with China is a strategic task of the party, indicating that both are of significant importance, is it not? Therefore, from Kim Jong-un's perspective, it is a kind of declaration.

They are expressing their intention to strengthen exchanges and cooperation in political, economic, and cultural fields, and to further develop high-level exchanges in the future. They are stating that they will move beyond the previously strained relationship to a better one. This carries a strong declarative meaning,

Under the sanctions against North Korea, it is likely that North Korea will seek breakthroughs by utilizing these two countries, China and Russia. It is essential to view President Xi Jinping's remarks positively; for instance, stating that 'we will resume trade and borders' increases the likelihood of re-establishing supply chains centered around light industrial raw materials such as food, fertilizers, and essentials, which were previously conducted between China and North Korea. In agriculture and construction, there is a possibility of support for fertilizers, agricultural tools, and seeds. In the fields of science and technology and healthcare, it may involve pharmaceuticals, quarantine equipment, and hospital facilities that North Korea needs. These three areas can be pursued as humanitarian support. From China's perspective, while the UN has imposed economic sanctions and China has jointly passed UN resolutions, it will not overtly violate them. Therefore, it is believed that such cooperation will be possible through gray areas or bypass routes that do not violate the resolutions. Another aspect of cooperation is, as mentioned, opening borders and allowing trains to pass again, and by the end of this year, the second Yalu River Bridge, also known as the New Yalu River Bridge, is expected to open. Although it was completed in 2014, it has been left unused for ten years due to inadequate customs facilities and connecting roads on the North Korean side, but construction has resumed, and it is reported that it will be operational by the end of this year. There are reports of President Xi Jinping's previous remarks to Kim Jong-un before the pandemic, stating, 'I will send one million Chinese tourists.' That is an enormous number. Of course, even if one million were sent, I believe North Korea would not be able to accommodate them, but if a significant number were sent, particularly to key projects like the Wonsan-Kalma coastal tourist area, it could revitalize North Korea's tourism industry. Therefore, overall, the relationship between North Korea and China is likely to rapidly normalize and enter into substantial economic cooperation.

indicating that they intend to normalize their relationship beyond the previously poor state. China has also expressed its own position on this matter, stating that 'North Korea and China should strengthen exchanges in the fields of diplomacy, law enforcement, and military.' Additionally, it states that 'practical cooperation should be expanded in trade, agriculture, construction, science and technology, and healthcare.' Furthermore, it emphasizes that 'the full reopening of border trade, the resumption of civil aviation flights, and the operation of international passenger trains should be used as an opportunity to expand human exchanges.' In broad terms, there are three main points, which I believe hold significant meaning. President Xi Jinping has made very specific statements regarding these three points. In summary, from China's perspective, it signifies an intention to strengthen economic cooperation and non-military cooperation with North Korea. While Russia may enhance cooperation as a guardian in military, space, satellite, and energy hard power aspects, China seems to expect to play a guardian role that supports North Korea's survival base in trade, agriculture, and healthcare.

Kim Joo-ae's Unpublicized Activities and the Implications for North Korea-China Relations

As mentioned earlier regarding the North Korea-China summit, the agreement related to the Tumen River outlet rights signed in 1991 was likely discussed to some extent, even though it was not included in the official announcement. I believe this could proceed as a project involving South Korea. Overall, it is clear that the relationship between North Korea and China will become very close in the future, and it is anticipated that we will soon reach a situation where this can be directly confirmed. One more point to add is that there has been considerable interest in whether Kim Joo-ae would appear at the Russia-North Korea summit.

In conclusion, Kim Joo-ae did not appear. I believe there are several reasons for this. First, when North Korea designates a successor, there is usually a procedure where they accompany them to official events. When Kim Joo-ae accompanied Kim Jong-un during his visit to Beijing last September, she was seen standing right behind him when the train arrived, but she has not been seen since. Therefore, it was not possible to confirm her movements. It is uncertain whether an official introduction took place, but given that she did not appear publicly during President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea, it cannot be ruled out that there were unpublicized activities. So why did she not appear publicly?

It conveys the meaning that alongside the closeness with Russia, North Korea will now fully restore its relationship with China, and I believe this was reflected in the Rodong Sinmun. Another point is that there is a shared value between China and North Korea, particularly emphasizing their status as socialist countries. This is important because there are not many socialist countries left on Earth. The party-to-party relationship as socialist states is a very special relationship. Therefore, by sharing socialist values, they are emphasizing the closeness of their relationship once again. The last point raised is that they will 'draw a blueprint for the future together.' In other words, while there are past issues, they are stating that they will move forward by recovering the previously strained relationship.

Changes in the Security Environment of the Korean Peninsula and South Korea's Strategic Tasks

In conclusion, the various phenomena emerging recently, including the U.S.-China summit, the China-Russia summit, and the North Korea-China summit, are certainly not comfortable from the perspective of the Korean Peninsula, particularly South Korea. The bilateral or trilateral relations among these countries, especially North Korea, China, and Russia, may enhance the level of cooperation through projects like the Tumen River project in the future. In contrast, the South Korea-U.S. cooperation does not seem to be strengthening since the emergence of President Trump. In this situation, I believe it is necessary to engage in deep and intense contemplation about how we can improve inter-Korean relations and lead to peace on the Korean Peninsula. Thank you for watching.