[Global NK Commentary] North Korea's Space Development: The Gap Between Ideal and Reality

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Under Kim Jong-un, North Korea appears to be accelerating its so-called 'space development,' particularly 'militarization of space.' In January 2021, at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea, Chairman Kim Jong-un declared that the design for a 'military reconnaissance satellite was completed' and vowed to 'secure reconnaissance information gathering capabilities by operating a military reconnaissance satellite in the near future.' On March 9, 2022, Kim visited the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) and instructed that a large number of military reconnaissance satellites must be launched within the '5-year plan for national defense development' presented at the 8th Party Congress. On March 10, 2022, he inspected the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and directed the expansion and modernization of the launch site to enable the launch of multi-purpose satellites, including military reconnaissance satellites.

On December 18, 2022, North Korea's NADA announced that after conducting 'an important test in the final stage for the development of a reconnaissance satellite' at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, it would 'complete preparations for the first military reconnaissance satellite by April 2023.' On April 18, 2023, Chairman Kim Jong-un, accompanied by his daughter, again visited NADA and instructed that the 'first military reconnaissance satellite, completed in April, must be launched within the planned timeframe.' In light of these recent developments, this article aims to discuss North Korea's space development, focusing on the gap between its aspirations and reality.

North Korea's Space Development Goals

According to North Korea's claims, the first satellite launch occurred on August 31, 1998. North Korea announced that it had launched the 'Paektusan-1' long-range rocket carrying a satellite named 'Kwangmyongsong-1.' However, external assessments from countries like South Korea and the United States evaluated the 'Paektusan-1' long-range rocket as the 'Taepodong-1' long-range ballistic missile. Including this, North Korea has launched long-range rockets six times by February 2016, ostensibly for satellite launches. Nevertheless, most of the long-range rockets launched by North Korea have been assessed by external entities, including South Korea and the United States, as long-range ballistic missiles.

Notably, as mentioned earlier, North Korea has been visibly pursuing the launch of military reconnaissance satellites since the 8th Party Congress. Due to this historical context, external assessments generally conclude that North Korea's space development is focused on the 'militarization of space.' However, this assessment appears to focus solely on the military aspect of North Korea's fundamental space development objectives. This is because North Korea's fundamental objectives for space development include not only military aspects but also economic aspects. This stems from the dual-use nature of the science and technology required for space development, meaning that such technologies can be utilized for both economic and military purposes. In other words, North Korea's fundamental objectives for space development seem to be not significantly different from those of other countries.

The fundamental goals of space development pursued by North Korea, particularly under the Kim Jong-un regime, can be confirmed from Chairman Kim Jong-un's remarks during his visit to NADA with his daughter on April 18, 2023. At the time, Chairman Kim emphasized the importance of space development for both economic and security aspects, instructing that 'space science and technology must be dramatically advanced.' He stressed the need to independently possess and operate satellites for weather observation, Earth observation, and communication for economic development, as well as military reconnaissance satellites for security. In addition, Kim instructed the construction of launch vehicles necessary to place various satellites into desired orbits and launch sites to deploy them.

Reality of North Korea's Space Development and the Possibility of Space Militarization

The reason external observers focus solely on the military aspect when assessing North Korea's space development goals can be found in its actions, presented as justifications for space development, in reality. Developing space requires scientific and technological capabilities in various fields, with launch vehicle and satellite-related capabilities being the most crucial. To conclude, North Korea is assessed to have achieved considerable success in the field of launch vehicles, which are technologically similar to long-range ballistic missiles, but has not yet achieved meaningful results in the field of satellites.

Specifically, the achievements North Korea has made in satellite development to date can be evaluated as follows: Out of the six satellite launches attempted by North Korea, four failed to reach orbit. Furthermore, the two satellites assessed as having achieved orbit have not functioned properly, according to general evaluations. In the 'important tests for the development of a reconnaissance satellite' conducted jointly by North Korea's NADA and the National Defense Science Institute on February 27 and March 5, 2022, it appears that imaging equipment to be mounted on military reconnaissance satellites was tested. However, based on the photographs released by North Korea immediately after the tests, questions have been raised about whether they can fulfill their role as military reconnaissance satellites.

On the other hand, North Korea is assessed to have achieved considerable success in relation to launch vehicles. Of the four launch vehicles that failed, two exploded in mid-air shortly after launch, and two failed to separate the third stage. However, all of these incidents occurred before December 2012. North Korea succeeded in launching the Unha-3 rocket on December 12, 2012, and the Kwangmyongsong rocket on February 7, 2016. The Kim Jong-un regime, pursuing the national strategic line of 'parallel development of economy and nuclear power' from 2013-2017, and re-pursuing the line of advancing nuclear and missile capabilities since February 2019, has achieved success in test-firing various types of long-range ballistic missiles assessed to be superior in performance to the Kwangmyongsong rocket.

North Korea has had minimal exchange and cooperation with major advanced space development countries to date. Given the sensitivity of space development-related science and technology, it is unlikely that North Korea will engage in significant exchange and cooperation with major advanced space development countries in the future. If North Korea continues to pursue space development independently as it has done so far, it will be difficult to achieve visible results in the satellite sector in the short term. Major advanced space development countries are accelerating preparations for so-called 'space warfare,' including the weaponization of satellites and attacks using spacecraft, beyond the operation of military reconnaissance satellites. In this regard, it appears unlikely that North Korea's space militarization will be realized in the short term or reach the level of major advanced space development countries.■

※ This commentary is the Korean translation of "North Korea's Space Development: The Gap Between Ideal and Reality."

■ Jang Cheol-woon_ Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. He received his bachelor's degree in Nuclear Engineering from Hanyang University in 2004, a master's degree in 'A Comparative Study of Nuclear Policies in South and North Korea' from Kyungnam University's Graduate School of North Korean Studies in 2006, and a Ph.D. in 'A Study on the Missile Competition Between South and North Korea' from the Graduate School of North Korean Studies in 2014. His main research areas include inter-Korean relations and Korean Peninsula security issues, including nuclear and missile problems. He has worked at the Ministry of Unification, Yonhap News Agency, and Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

■ Editor;Park Jeong-hoo_ EAI Research Fellow | Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext.205) | jhpark@eai.or.kr