[EAI Commentary No. 3] Changes in the Foreign and Security Policy of Japan's Democratic Party and Prospects for Korea-Japan Relations

8.30 General Election and the Birth of the Democratic Party Administration

Japan's Democratic Party achieved a landslide victory in the general election on August 30, securing 308 out of 480 seats in the House of Representatives. The Democratic Party had already won 118 out of 237 seats in the House of Councillors in July 2007, and with its overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives, it now holds strong control over both chambers. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which previously held 304 seats in the House of Representatives, secured only 119 seats, thus stepping down from power after 54 years of rule since the LDP's founding in 1955, with the exception of a brief 10-month period of a non-LDP coalition government between 1993 and 1994. The Democratic Party was formed in 1996, prior to the general election, as a liberal third party opposing not only the conservative LDP, which had been in power for a long time, but also progressive parties like the Social Democratic Party and the Communist Party, starting as the third-largest party after the LDP and the New Frontier Party. The Democratic Party's expansion and growth as a consolidating force for non-LDP opposition parties began when it absorbed defectors from the New Frontier Party and others during the 1998 House of Councillors election, becoming the second-largest party. Subsequently, after a period of decline, the Democratic Party saw a resurgence in support following its merger with the Liberal Party led by Ichiro Ozawa in September 2003. The background to the Democratic Party's recent victory in both houses, despite still being smaller in terms of support and seats compared to the LDP, can be attributed to the backlash against the neoliberal reforms of the Koizumi Junichiro administration over five years (2001-2006) and the incompetence of the short-lived LDP administrations that followed Koizumi, namely Abe, Fukuda, and Aso.

The Democratic Party's accession to power is expected to bring about significant changes in domestic and foreign policy. Domestically, it is likely to strengthen political control over the bureaucracy and prioritize welfare policies such as child allowances and agricultural subsidies. In foreign policy, while maintaining the Japan-U.S. alliance as its foundation, it is expected to pursue greater independence from the U.S. compared to the LDP and emphasize diplomacy with Asia. In particular, there is a prevailing expectation that relations between Korea and Japan will improve due to a forward-looking stance on historical issues. In summary, foreign policy is expected to show relative continuity, with reform policies primarily focused on domestic affairs. This commentary aims to analyze the foreign and security policy of the Democratic Party and project future changes in Japan's foreign and security policy and Korea-Japan relations.

Prospects for the Foreign and Security Policy of the Democratic Party Administration

The foreign and security policy of the Democratic Party administration can be examined through the "Manifesto" and its finalized version, announced on July 27 and August 11, 2009, respectively, as well as the Democratic Party's 2009 policy document published on July 23, 2009. Furthermore, by referencing the foreign policy visions articulated on multiple occasions by party leader Yukio Hatoyama, Secretary-General Katsuya Okada, and former leader Ichiro Ozawa, the Democratic Party's foreign and security vision can be categorized into the following areas: policy toward the U.S., policy toward Asia, and defense policy.

A Shift Towards a More Assertive Policy Toward the U.S.

The Democratic Party criticizes the LDP's policy toward the U.S. as one of subservience and dependence. Indeed, the Democratic Party has opposed laws led by the LDP to support the U.S.'s War on Terror and the war in Afghanistan, such as the Act on Special Measures for Countering Terrorist Special Measures (2001), the Act on Special Measures for Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq (2003), and the Supply Support Act (2008). The Democratic Party has argued that the U.S.'s War on Terror and the war in Afghanistan were conducted without the consent of the international community, including the United Nations, and therefore Japan should not cooperate with unilateral U.S. military actions that lack UN approval. The Democratic Party's assertion, right up to the eve of the election, that it would not approve the extension of the deployment of Maritime Self-Defense Force vessels engaged in refueling support in the Indian Ocean as part of support for the War on Terror, stemmed from this position.

The Democratic Party has pledged to build a more equal and closer Japan-U.S. alliance, criticizing the LDP's dependent stance toward the U.S. Specifically, it has proposed a review of the realignment of U.S. forces and negotiations on U.S. military bases in Japan, as well as revisions to the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). The Democratic Party has indicated its intention to revise the plan agreed upon between Japan and the U.S. during 2005-2006 for the realignment of U.S. military bases, particularly the relocation of Futenma Air Station in Okinawa to the Schwab area in northern Okinawa, and to renegotiate this relocation to a location outside Okinawa with the U.S. Regarding the Japan-U.S. SOFA, it advocates for expanded Japanese judicial jurisdiction over crimes committed by U.S. military personnel in Japan.

Concurrently, the Democratic Party has shown a tendency to moderate its policy proposals in a more realistic direction, recognizing the anxiety and concern within the U.S. regarding the reliability of the Japan-U.S. alliance stemming from its proposed policy vision. For instance, on July 17, party leader Hatoyama stated that the refueling activities by the Maritime Self-Defense Force in the Indian Ocean could continue beyond their scheduled expiration in January of the following year, contrary to his earlier assertions. Furthermore, the policy document released on July 27 omitted specific mentions of refueling activities, leaving open the possibility of a shift to more pragmatic policies. Therefore, the Democratic Party's policy toward the U.S., which advocates for the construction of a more equal Japan-U.S. alliance, is likely to be modified through conflicts with the U.S. position of adhering to and implementing existing agreements within the alliance. Conversely, it is expected to be negative towards newly requested U.S. rear support. For example, Japan's support for stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan would likely be framed as part of UN activities rather than an alliance initiative. In such a scenario, the U.S. might expect more active contributions from the South Korean military in the same region.

A Shift Towards Emphasizing Asia

The Democratic Party has expressed its intention to place as much importance on Asia as on the U.S. Party leader Yukio Hatoyama has repeatedly described his diplomatic philosophy as "friendship diplomacy" (Yūai gaikō). He has stated that concrete measures for this include the establishment of an East Asian community and the realization of an East Asian currency. According to him, suppressing excessive nationalism in East Asia and establishing economic integration and a collective security system in Asia are also ways to realize the ideals of pacifism and international cooperation enshrined in the Japanese Constitution.

Other key Democratic Party leaders, such as former leader Ozawa and Secretary-General Okada, share the view that relations with Asian countries, including Korea and China, should be prioritized. Former leader Ozawa has led delegations of the Democratic Party to China annually to promote inter-party exchanges with the Communist Party of China and has consistently advocated for the enshrinement of Class-A war criminals at Yasukuni Shrine to be separated, considering the positions of Asian countries. Secretary-General Okada has also shown a willingness to accommodate South Korean demands, arguing that Japan should adopt a forward-looking stance on the issue of suffrage for foreign residents in Japan. Furthermore, regarding potential conflicts between Korea and Japan over issues such as the Dokdo islets, he holds the position that the escalation of disputes between the two countries should be managed rather than asserting Japan's claims.

A notable aspect of the Democratic Party's policy toward East Asia is the proposal for a Northeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) by Secretary-General Okada and others. Secretary-General Okada, who leads the Diet members' league for the promotion of nuclear disarmament within the Democratic Party, proposes the establishment of a Northeast Asian NWFZ along with North Korea, South Korea, and Mongolia. He argues that nuclear-weapon states in the region, such as the U.S., Russia, and China, should declare mutual no-first-use of nuclear weapons, pursue nuclear disarmament, and take measures such as treaty codification. This proposal for a Northeast Asian NWFZ could serve as a core component of the collective security framework for the East Asian community advocated by party leader Hatoyama.

However, concrete plans for the realization of a common currency or a collective security community in the East Asian region have not yet been presented, and these issues are intertwined with the conflicting interests of individual countries within the region, making it uncertain how far the Democratic Party leadership's idealistic vision can be realized.

Re-establishing Defense Policy

While there are partial differences in the Democratic Party's defense policy compared to the LDP, it is expected that Japan will continue to pursue security policies aimed at expanding its fundamental national interests in domains such as the maritime and space.

The LDP has pursued policies to expand the scope of Self-Defense Forces activities, such as supporting the U.S.'s War on Terror and the war in Afghanistan, in line with Japan's international status and national strength. In particular, in January 2009, then-Prime Minister Taro Aso organized a "Consultation Meeting on Security and Defense Capabilities" to revise the existing National Defense Program Outline. The report from this meeting recommended the partial acceptance of the exercise of the right to collective self-defense, which had been suspended, and the inclusion, in some form, of the capability to attack enemy bases in the newly revised National Defense Program Outline.

In contrast, the Democratic Party has stated that the exercise of Japan's right to self-defense should be limited to the scope of "exclusive defense" (senshu bōei), and its involvement in international security activities not sanctioned by the UN should be restricted. Consequently, the revision of the National Defense Program Outline pursued by the LDP is likely to be suspended or adjusted to reassert the principle of exclusive defense.

This does not mean, however, that the Democratic Party is indifferent to strengthening Japan's security system. Although the Democratic Party opposed most security-related bills led by the LDP, it has aligned with the LDP on the Basic Act on Ocean Policy (enacted in April 2007), aimed at strengthening maritime interests, and the Basic Act on Space (enacted in May 2008), which amended the principle of peaceful use of space to allow for its use for defense purposes. It is also important to remember that key figures expected to lead the Democratic Party administration's security policy, such as former party leader Seiji Maehara and Diet member Akihisa Nagashima, are realists comparable to their counterparts in the LDP. Under their influence, the Democratic Party's platform includes establishing a crisis management agency and strengthening the intelligence gathering system to respond to crises such as large-scale terrorism and natural disasters. Furthermore, it proposes the establishment of a Space Agency within the Cabinet Office to centrally manage space policy, including defense purposes, rectifying the inefficiencies of the past where space policy was pursued piecemeal by various government ministries such as the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Therefore, despite some differences with the LDP, it is likely that Japan under the Democratic Party will continue to pursue security policies aimed at expanding its fundamental national interests in domains such as the maritime and space.

Prospects for a Relaunch of Korea-Japan Relations

Unlike the LDP administration, the Democratic Party administration is unlikely to provoke South Korea over historical issues such as visits to Yasukuni Shrine or right-wing textbooks, and will likely seek to build a more stable and forward-looking relationship with South Korea by valuing South Korea's strategic importance in East Asia. The "Democratic Party Administration Index 2009" lists "Strengthening the Trust Relationship between Korea and Japan" as the second most important policy among approximately 20 policies in the foreign and defense sectors, preceding the establishment of a new era of the Japan-U.S. alliance and the strengthening of Asian diplomacy, and before deepening cooperation with China. While it holds a position of actively engaging in dialogue for the peaceful and early resolution of territorial issues, including the Dokdo dispute, it is highly unlikely to risk weakening diplomatic relations with South Korea for this purpose. On the other hand, the Korea-Japan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is considered a major agenda item between the two countries, and renegotiations are likely to gain momentum.

A fundamental reason for the potential strengthening of trust between Korea and Japan lies in the forward-looking historical perception of the Democratic Party leaders. The Democratic Party leaders have clearly stated their commitment to inheriting the 1995 "Murayama Statement," which acknowledged Japan's role as an aggressor in past wars and apologized for the harm inflicted on neighboring Asian countries, and they are planning to establish a national cemetery to replace Yasukuni Shrine. Given the Democratic Party administration's forward-looking stance on historical issues, the upcoming year, marking the 100th anniversary of the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty, presents a valuable opportunity for both countries to more actively resolve past unfortunate history and issue a future-oriented joint statement on cooperation for peace-building in the Northeast Asian region. To elevate the Korea-Japan Partnership Declaration, announced in 1998 by President Kim Dae-jung and Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, to a higher level, it should incorporate a future vision for the Northeast Asian region, and such a joint statement should actively seek the participation of China and North Korea.

Regarding North Korea, the Democratic Party administration maintains a principled hardline stance, supporting the implementation of UN sanctions concerning the abduction issue and the nuclear issue. However, as stated by party leader Hatoyama, depending on the situation, it may pursue normalization of Japan-North Korea relations and resolution of bilateral issues through a surprise summit between Japan and North Korea. Hatoyama's grandfather, Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama, achieved normalization of Japan-Soviet relations through a surprise visit to the Soviet Union in 1956. Democratic Party leader Hatoyama may harbor a desire to replicate his grandfather's achievement in Japan-Soviet relations in the context of Japan-North Korea relations. While a change in North Korea's attitude towards the nuclear issue would be a prerequisite, pursuing normalization of Japan-North Korea relations in this manner could be a positive factor for North Korea's denuclearization and peaceful regime change, which is also our hope.

The Democratic Party administration's vision for a nuclear order could also serve as a foundation for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a denuclearized order in Northeast Asia. The Japanese Democratic Party administration is likely to propose its vision for a Northeast Asian NWFZ to North Korea, South Korea, and other nuclear-weapon states. For South Korea, unless nuclear armament is an alternative security policy, it would be necessary to accept the concept of a Northeast Asian NWFZ and formulate its position as a vision for a Northeast Asian denuclearized community that parallels the U.S. nuclear umbrella. This approach could pressure North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons and also block the possibility of Japan's nuclear armament.

The Democratic Party administration, in proposing an East Asian community, suggests the establishment of a common currency and a collective security system. While the realization of such a vision is expected to face considerable difficulties due to the complex interdependencies among East Asian countries, if Japan, which has been passive in building an East Asian community, changes its approach under the Democratic Party administration, it could align well with our policy objectives. Facing layered security threats, we, who desire a more open regional economic system, must pursue the establishment of more cooperative economic relations and a security cooperation framework within East Asia in the medium to long term. Therefore, it is requested that we develop bilateral cooperation agendas in finance, currency, security, environment, and energy with the Japanese Democratic Party administration and make policy efforts to expand these into the East Asian region.

The Democratic Party administration, which has emerged from Japan's first substantive change of government in half a century, is expected to bring considerable momentum for change within Japan, and this momentum is anticipated to usher in new currents in the order of the East Asian region. It is imperative for us to promptly establish various consultation channels with Japan and proactively engage in policy toward Japan to realize common objectives such as the stable development of Korea-Japan relations, the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue, and the expansion of regional cooperation in East Asia. Simultaneously, we must strive for diplomatic balance to ensure that the strengthening of Korea-Japan cooperation and trust does not inadvertently alienate China and can be expanded into strengthened trilateral cooperation among Korea, China, and Japan.■

Park Young-jun (National Defense University)

Lee Sook-jong (President, EAI, Sungkyunkwan University)

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