[Public Opinion Briefing No. 86] Evaluation of Powerful Politicians' Leadership: Survey on Trust and Influence

“Shift in Korea’s Leadership Landscape” - 2010 Evaluation of Powerful Politicians' Influence and Trust

• MB ranked 1st in influence, 4th in trust; Kim Moon-soo and Oh Se-hoon surge - Park Geun-hye in leadership competition

• Opposition party candidates prominent in the middle tier; Yoo Si-min and Han Myeong-sook rise compared to 2007

• 2007 presidential candidates - Lee Hoi-chang and Chung Dong-young perform poorly

[Table 1] 2010 Evaluation of Powerful Politicians' Influence and Trust (Points)

*Source: Survey conducted by EAI, JoongAng Sunday, and Korea Research on June 29 (Han Myeong-sook and Sohn Hak-kyu's scores are from the 2007 evaluation)

Is Korea’s Power Map Changing? Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo Join MB and Park Geun-hye in Competition

Influence Evaluation - MB 1st, Kim Moon-soo 2nd, Oh Se-hoon 3rd, former Representative Park drops to 4th

Trust Evaluation - Park Geun-hye and Kim Moon-soo tied for 1st, Oh Se-hoon 3rd, MB 4th

The results of the third major politician leadership survey, conducted in 2007 and 2009, show that President Lee Myung-bak and former Representative Park Geun-hye's influence and trust perceptions remain stagnant, while the rise of Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Governor Kim Moon-soo, included in the survey for the first time, is notable. In the lower-middle tier, the evaluations of opposition party politicians who led the charge in the June 2 local elections, such as Yoo Si-min, Han Myeong-sook, and Chung Sye-kyun, have significantly improved compared to the past, attracting considerable attention regarding future political developments. This is based on the results of the '3rd Survey on Trust and Influence of Powerful Politicians' conducted by JoongAng Sunday in collaboration with the East Asia Institute and Korea Research on June 29, surveying 800 adult men and women nationwide (margin of error ±3.5% at 95% confidence level). Twelve powerful politicians from both ruling and opposition parties, including President Lee Myung-bak and potential presidential candidates currently discussed in various polls, were selected, and their political influence and trust were measured on a scale from 'not at all' (0 points) to 'very high' (10 points).

President Lee Myung-bak ranked first in the influence evaluation with 6.36 out of 10 points, but ranked fourth in the trust evaluation with 4.92 points, falling short of the midpoint (5 points). Former Representative Park Geun-hye ranked first in trust with 5.40 points, maintaining her position from the previous year, but dropped from second to fourth in political influence with 5.69 points. The vacant spots were filled by Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former Governor Kim Moon-soo. Notably, Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Moon-soo ranked second in influence with 5.82 points, just behind President Lee Myung-bak, and tied with former Representative Park Geun-hye for the highest evaluation among the 12 surveyed politicians in trust with 5.40 points. Mayor Oh Se-hoon ranked third in both influence (5.79 points) and trust (5.25 points).

Candidates Kim Moon-soo and Oh Se-hoon received high evaluations primarily from supporters of the conservative Grand National Party, while former Representative Park Geun-hye maintained an advantage among centrist voters, despite trailing Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo among Grand National Party supporters in both influence and trust. This outcome appears to be a result of her confrontation with the President over the Sejong City issue, which eroded trust among Grand National Party supporters but improved her evaluation among centrist and opposition voters. Former Representative Chung Mong-joon, who resigned taking responsibility for the defeat in the June 2 local elections, ranked ninth in influence (4.35 points) and tenth in trust (4.15 points). Prime Minister Chung Un-chan, who failed to pass the Sejong City bill, ranked fifth in influence (4.67 points), following former Representative Park, but remained in the lower ranks in trust at ninth (4.29 points).

While the leading group consists solely of politicians from the Grand National Party, the upward trend of opposition party politicians in the middle tier is noteworthy. In terms of ranking, Democratic Party leader Chung Sye-kyun ranked sixth in influence (4.61 points), former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook seventh (4.58 points), and former Minister Yoo Si-min eighth (4.55 points), but their evaluation scores significantly increased compared to previous surveys. In trust, former Minister Yoo Si-min rose to fifth with 4.63 points, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook ranked sixth with 4.50 points, and former Representative Chung Sye-kyun ranked seventh with 4.37 points. Former Representative Sohn Hak-kyu followed (influence 10th - 4.35 points, trust 8th - 4.36 points). This represents a remarkable increase compared to their trust evaluation scores, which were all in the 3-point range in the 2007 and 2009 surveys. Although the gap with the leading group of the Grand National Party remains considerable, narrowing the gap compared to the last presidential election and the 2009 survey is a significant achievement. This appears to be the result of increased expectations for opposition politicians who led the unexpectedly strong performance in the June 2 local elections.

Conversely, leadership evaluations for politicians who failed in the presidential race remained harsh. Former Representative Chung Dong-young (influence 12th - 3.74 points, trust 12th - 3.81 points), who ran in the 2007 presidential election, and Representative Lee Hoi-chang (influence 11th - 3.91 points, trust 11th - 3.92 points) not only ranked at the very bottom but also had evaluation scores in the 3-point range.

[Figure 1] 2010 Evaluation of Powerful Politicians' Influence and Trust (Points)

Who is the Next Generation Presidential Candidate?

55.2% "No emerging figures" (None 21.9%, Don't know 33.3%)

Among 44.8% (358 people) of respondents: Kim Doo-kwan 15.0% > Ahn Hee-jung 12.9% > Na Kyung-won 12.0% > Won Hee-ryong 11.5% in order

Following the June 2 local elections, as interest in generational change in politics has increased, we asked 10 prominent politicians from the 386 generation (40s to early 50s) who they consider to be future national leaders. The survey results indicate that there is currently no politician who has been firmly established in the public's mind as a next-generation national leader. Those who responded 'don't know' accounted for 33.3%, and those who responded 'none' accounted for 21.9%, meaning a total of 55.2% (442 people) of voters could not identify a future national leader. Among those who selected a specific politician, accounting for 44.8% (358 people) of the total, the new Gyeongnam Governor Kim Doo-kwan, considered the biggest surprise of the June 2 local elections, was chosen by 15.0%. New Chungnam Governor Ahn Hee-jung was chosen by 12.9%, placing opposition 386 politicians at the forefront. Assemblywoman Na Kyung-won, who performed well in the Seoul mayoral election, received 12.0%, and Assemblyman Won Hee-ryong received 11.5%. Following them were Incheon Mayor Song Young-gil (10.8%) and Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok, who served as the planning director for the June 2 local elections (10.1%). Assemblyman Nam Kyung-pil received 8.9%, former Governor Lee Kwang-jae 5.9%, former Governor Kim Tae-ho 3.9%, and Assemblyman Chung Doo-un, who served as the Grand National Party's election planning director, received the lowest at 1.9%. The strong performance in the June 2 local elections has led to a somewhat higher evaluation of young opposition politicians as next-generation leaders.

Respondents who selected specific politicians accounted for 44.8% (358 individuals) of the total. Among them, 15.0% chose the new Governor of Gyeongnam, Kim Doo-kwan, who was considered the biggest upset of the June 2nd local elections, and 12.9% chose the new Governor of Chungnam, Ahn Hee-jung, indicating that the 386 politicians of the opposition bloc took the lead. Representative Na Kyung-won, who performed well in the Seoul mayoral election, received 12.0%, and Representative Won Hee-ryong received 11.5%. Following them were Incheon Mayor Song Young-gil (10.8%) and Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok, head of the June 2nd Local Election Planning Committee, who received 10.1%. Representative Nam Kyung-pil received 8.9%, Governor of Gangwon Lee Kwang-jae received 5.9%, former Governor of Gyeongnam Kim Tae-ho received 3.9%, and Representative Chung Doo-un, who served as the Grand National Party's Election Planning Committee head, received the lowest at 1.9%. Due to their strong performance in the June 2nd local elections, young politicians from the opposition bloc are receiving somewhat high evaluations as next-generation leaders.

[Figure 2] Among the following politicians in their 40s and early 50s, who is best equipped with the qualities of a national leader?

[Appendix] 2007-2010 Trust and Influence Scores and Rankings