[Public Opinion Briefing No. 85] MB Approval Rating Plummets After June 2 Local Elections

EAI · Korea Research Joint Public Opinion Survey Project June

Conservative Base Solidified, Centrist Base Eroded

MB Approval Rating Down 9.0%P to 43.0%, Centrist Base Down 11.3%P, Significant Erosion of Moderate Supporters

Democratic Party Surpasses Grand National Party in Support Among 40s

Next Presidential Election: Park 25.0% > Oh Se-hoon 11.2% > Yoo Si-min 9.8%, Mayor Oh's Support Surges Among GNP Supporters

The fluctuations in the President's approval rating since the June 2 local elections are significant. In the May survey, following the President's address on the Cheonan sinking on May 23, the approval rating reached 52.0% by the time of the survey, benefiting from the security effect of the Cheonan incident. This was the first time the approval rating surpassed 50% since the regular survey began in February 2009. However, in less than a month after the Grand National Party's defeat in the June 2 local elections, the approval rating dropped to 43.0%, a decrease of 9%P.

[Figure 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating (%)

Observing the process of the approval rating decline in the June survey after surpassing 50% in May, the increase in approval was primarily driven by strong consolidation among the conservative base. While this conservative consolidation persists in the current survey, there is a significant erosion of support among the centrist and progressive bases.

Examining the changes in national approval ratings by subjective ideological orientation in the 2010 regular survey results, from January to April, national approval was primarily supported by both the conservative and moderate bases. However, the increase in approval ratings from mid-to-late May can be attributed to strong consolidation among the conservative base. Support among conservatives ranged from 55% to 60% from January to April, while the moderate base showed stable support, albeit lower, at 43% to 49%. Public opinion changes in the conservative, moderate, and progressive bases were generally moving in the same direction. However, around the time of the Cheonan address in May, as the government abruptly shifted to a hardline policy towards North Korea, support among conservatives rose to 65%-66%, while support among moderates and progressives sharply declined. A divergence in public opinion changes between the conservative base and the moderate/progressive bases emerged. The centrist base saw a drastic drop in approval from 49.1% in May to 37.8% in the June survey, a decrease of 11.3%P. The progressive base decreased from 37.8% in May to 20.3% in the June survey, a decline of 17.5%P.

The erosion of support from the centrist/progressive bases appears to be a result of the rapid relaxation of the security consolidation effect formed by the Cheonan incident, coupled with concerns about the government's hardline North Korea policy that consolidated the conservative base. Secondly, as the election approached the latter half, the government's intensified hardline stance, including the President's reflection on the candlelight protests and the dismissal of progressive teachers, significantly stimulated the sense of check and balance among centrist and progressive voters. These changes seem to have led to the poor performance of the ruling party candidates in the elections and the decline in the President's approval rating. Thirdly, although public opinion holds the President and the government responsible for the defeat in the June 2 local elections, the delay in post-election measures to appease public sentiment and the sluggish progress on issues like the Sejong City and the Four Major Rivers projects also contributed.

[Figure 2] National Approval Rating by Ideological Orientation (%)

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating: March 2009 - June 2010 (%)

* Includes 'No party affiliation' and 'Don't know/No response'

Party Support Rating: Democratic Party Support Rises 6.3%P Compared to Previous Month After Local Elections

Grand National Party 33.8%, Democratic Party 27.1%, Unaffiliated 20.0%

In their 40s, the Democratic Party (31.4%) surpassed the Grand National Party (27.8%).

The rise in the Democratic Party's approval rating is noteworthy, given their greater-than-expected victory in the local elections. The Grand National Party's support remained similar, at 33.8% in this survey compared to 34.6% in May. However, the Democratic Party's support surged from 20.8% in May to 27.1% in this survey, an increase of 6.3%P. Conversely, the proportion of unaffiliated voters, which had been fluctuating between 20% and 30%, decreased to 20.0% in this survey. This suggests that the Democratic Party's increased support primarily came from absorbing unaffiliated voters.

The gap in support between the two major parties narrowed to 6.7%P, within the margin of error. This is the closest the gap has been since the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun last year. Considering the upward trend in the Democratic Party's support, this indicates that conditions are favorable for the Democratic Party to exert a stronger presence in the upcoming by-elections scheduled for July and in the political agenda for the latter half of the year. Furthermore, as party support approaches the 30% mark, there is keen interest in whether it can rise to the 30% range, having remained in the low 15%-20% range since the launch of the new government.

[Figure 3] Changes in Proportion of Grand National Party, Democratic Party, and Unaffiliated Voters: January - June (%)

Democratic Party Support Exceeds 30% Among 40s for the First Time Since Regular Surveys in 2009

A notable point is that the Democratic Party's support has surpassed that of the Grand National Party among the 40s, who have served as a balance in overall public opinion. While there have been occasional instances in previous surveys where the Democratic Party's support led among the 40s, it is true that for the past several months, support for the Grand National Party has been consistently higher than for the Democratic Party in this demographic, distinguishing them from the 20s and 30s, who have shown critical sentiment towards President Lee Myung-bak's administration and the Grand National Party.

Looking at the April and May surveys alone, the Democratic Party's support led the Grand National Party's among the 20s and 30s, while the Grand National Party's support led among the 40s. In the current survey, not only among the 20s and 30s but also among the 40s, the Democratic Party's support has surged. Among the 20s, the Grand National Party's support remained similar to the previous month at 21.0%, but the Democratic Party's support increased by a significant 9.0%P to 33.7%. In the 30s, the Grand National Party's support was similar to the May survey results, but the Democratic Party's support rose from 24.0% to 34.9%, an increase of 10.9%P. In the 40s, the Grand National Party had led the Democratic Party by 8-11%P in April and May. However, in the June survey, the Grand National Party's support dropped by 3.6%P from the previous month to 27.8%, while the Democratic Party's support increased by 7.7%P from the previous month, resulting in the Democratic Party's support overtaking the Grand National Party's. Despite this, the overall Grand National Party support remaining at a similar level to before indicates a further consolidation of support for the Grand National Party among those aged 50 and above.

The victory of the opposition in the June 2 local elections was significantly influenced not only by the votes of the young generation (20s-30s) but also by the shift in sentiment among the 40s, who initially supported the Grand National Party candidates but later activated a sense of check and balance against the ruling party towards the end of the election, moving their support towards the Democratic Party. It remains to be seen whether the generational divide of '20s-30s vs. 40s-50s and above' will solidify into a confrontation of '20s-40s vs. 50s and above' due to the 'U-turn of the 40s'. Changes in public opinion among the 40s are expected to be a key indicator for gauging the direction of overall public opinion and will be a major variable in the government's state administration and the realignment of power in the latter half of the year.

[Table 2] Changes in Support for Both Parties by Generation (%)

[Table 3] Changes in Party Support Ratings (January - June 2010) (%)

* First asked in the December 2009 survey

** Includes 'No party affiliation' and 'Don't know/No response'

*** The January 14 survey was not a regular survey but a result of a joint political issue survey by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (1,002 respondents).

**** Pro-Park Geun-hye Alliance was renamed Future Hope Alliance in February 2010. On April 2, the Future Hope Alliance resolved to merge with the Grand National Party. Defectors formed the Future Alliance on April 18 (Lee Gyu-taek).

***** From March to May 2010, Han Hwa-gap's new party (Peace Democratic Party) and Shim Dae-pyung's new party (National Central Union) were included in the options and categorized under 'Others'.

Next Presidential Election: Park Geun-hye 25.0% > Oh Se-hoon 11.2% > Yoo Si-min 9.8%, Oh Se-hoon Ranks Second for the First Time

Among Grand National Party Supporters: Park Geun-hye 31.8% > Oh Se-hoon 22.7% > Kim Moon-soo 14.2%

In the June regular survey's poll for potential presidential candidates, Park Geun-hye maintained her lead with 25.0%, a slight 1.3% increase from the April survey, remaining significantly ahead of other candidates. She has consistently held around the mid-20% range since the beginning of 2010. Following her were Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 11.2%, former Minister Yoo Si-min at 9.8%, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook at 9.3%, and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Moon-soo at 7.4%.

[Table 4] Potential Presidential Candidate Support Ratings (%)

* The May survey was not conducted due to the local elections and security perception survey.

A notable outcome of this survey is the rise in approval ratings for Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Governor Kim Moon-soo. Despite the Grand National Party's defeat in the June 2 local elections, the emergence of potential presidential candidates like Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo can be seen as an unexpected gain for the party regarding the next presidential election. While nationwide sentiment for regime change led to defeats for Grand National Party candidates in strongholds like Incheon, Gangwon, and Gyeongnam against unified opposition candidates, Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo managed to secure victories in symbolically important regions like the Seoul metropolitan area against strong challenges from opposition candidates. This appears to be the reason for their increased support.

However, it is important to note that the increase in their approval ratings is primarily concentrated among Grand National Party supporters. Among Grand National Party supporters, Park Geun-hye leads with 31.8% support, but Oh Se-hoon's support as a potential candidate among GNP supporters has risen to 22.7%. Kim Moon-soo also receives 14.2% support, more than double the national average among GNP supporters. Combined, their support significantly surpasses that of Park Geun-hye.

However, their situation makes it difficult for them to run for president, as they have pledged to complete their current terms. Chung Mong-joon, who has consistently ranked second to fourth in previous potential candidate polls, has fallen to the lower ranks with only 2.9% support in this survey. Therefore, Park Geun-hye currently maintains her lead among potential Grand National Party presidential candidates. Nevertheless, the fact that Park Geun-hye's support among GNP supporters remains in the low 30% range indicates that the party's sentiment regarding the next presidential election is still fluid.

Among the opposition, former Assemblyman Chung Dong-young (3.7%) and former leader Sohn Hak-kyu (2.7%) lag behind previous election candidates. However, former Minister Yoo Si-min (9.8%) and former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook (9.3%) are leading opposition candidates, maintaining support around 10% despite their election losses. In the previous presidential election, the combined support for all opposition candidates did not approach the support for either Lee Myung-bak or Park Geun-hye. Now, the combined support of Yoo Si-min and Han Myeong-sook alone approaches 20%, nearing Park Geun-hye's support level. This suggests that the next presidential election may unfold differently from the previous one. ■