[Public Opinion Briefing 42-1] North Korean Missile Launch, PSI Participation, and Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

[Public Opinion Briefing 42] Table of Contents

[Issue 1] Response to North Korean Missile Launch, Government's PSI Participation, and Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Survey Results

[Issue 2] April 29th By-election

[Tracking] Government Approval Rating and Political Party Support Rating

Issue 1. Response to North Korean Missile Launch, Government's PSI Participation, and Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Survey Results

□ 51.1% Approve of US and Japan Intercepting North Korean Missiles, 42.3% Disapprove

□ 51.1% Believe Government's Participation in PSI is Desirable, 40.6% Disagree

□ 70.7% Believe Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Projects, such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex, Should Be Maintained/Expanded, 24.8% Believe They Should Be Reduced/Suspended

North Korea is maintaining its stance to proceed with a launch, presumed to be a missile, between the 4th and 8th of next month. It has even notified the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) of its intention to close two air routes for the rocket launch. The public's reaction to North Korea's rocket launch, which comes amid strained inter-Korean relations, appears to be relatively firm.

Firstly, regarding the interception of North Korean missiles by the United States or Japan, the proportion of respondents who 'approve' reached 51.1%, a majority. The proportion of respondents who 'disapprove' was 42.3%, with 6.6% undecided/no response.

Approval ratings were high among supporters of the government and the ruling party, while opposition ratings were high among supporters of the opposition party and progressive citizens. By age group, 62.9% of those aged 50 and above approved, while approval and disapproval ratings were evenly split among other age groups. Ideologically, 56.1% of respondents with conservative leanings approved of the US or Japan intercepting North Korean missiles, while 42.2% of progressives approved. Among moderates, 52.1% agreed that North Korea's missile test should be intercepted if it proceeds.

It is noteworthy that approximately 4 out of 10 individuals among progressives and supporters of the opposition Democratic Party also approved of the US or Japan intercepting North Korean missiles. This needs to be considered in light of their general preference for conciliatory policies over hardline approaches towards North Korea. This appears to be a result of a widespread hardening of attitudes towards North Korea across society, driven by factors such as North Korea's insistence on proceeding with the missile launch and the detention of South Korean personnel at the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

[Figure 1] Opinions on US-Japan Interception of North Korean Missiles

[Figure 2] Opinions on US-Japan Interception by Ideological Leaning

Meanwhile, public opinion is also leaning positive regarding the government's potential participation in PSI, which targets North Korea. A desirable 51.1% of respondents believed it would be appropriate for the South Korean government to participate in PSI to monitor and prevent North Korea's arms exports. Conversely, 40.6% believed it would be undesirable due to potential worsening relations with North Korea and increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The undecided/no response rate was 8.3%.

Among progressives, 40.3% responded that it would be desirable, while 50.8% responded that it would be undesirable. Among conservatives, 59.9% responded that it would be desirable, while only 34.9% responded that it would be undesirable. Even among moderates, who tend to sway public opinion, over half (51.9%) evaluated the government's participation in PSI positively.

What is PSI? (Proliferation Security Initiative)

The government recently announced that it would consider participating in PSI, which involves interdicting and monitoring vessels from suspect countries on the high seas to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The PSI initiative, led by the United States, is a system for interdicting and monitoring vessels carrying weapons of mass destruction. Fifteen key countries, including the United States, participate, and over 60 countries have expressed their willingness to cooperate. South Korea has hitherto only observed during training exercises, without participating, in order not to provoke North Korea.

[Figure 3] Perception of South Korean Government's PSI Participation

[Figure 4] Perception of South Korean Government's PSI Participation by Ideological Leaning

However, regarding inter-Korean economic cooperation projects, including the Kaesong Industrial Complex, 29.2% of respondents favored expanding these projects, either significantly or slightly, while 41.5% favored maintaining the current level. Those who believed they should be reduced or suspended accounted for 24.8%. While the public calls for a firm response to North Korea's missile launches and weapons of mass destruction exports, they also hold the position that economic cooperation should not deteriorate further than it is now.

Regarding the direction of inter-Korean economic cooperation, including the Kaesong Industrial Complex, 24.5% of respondents identifying as conservative favored expansion, while 35.6% favored reduction or suspension. Among progressives, 42.9% favored expansion, and 14.6% favored reduction or suspension as the policy direction our government should take regarding inter-Korean economic cooperation, including the Kaesong Industrial Complex. ▧

[Figure 5] Perception of the Direction of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation, Including the Kaesong Industrial Complex

[Figure 6] Perception of the Direction of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation, Including the Kaesong Industrial Complex, by Ideological Leaning