Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 24-2: Will Changes in Public Sentiment Translate into Votes in the General Election?

Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 24: "Turbulent Public Sentiment; Whether it Will Lead to Changes in Voting Intentions Remains Uncertain"

Topic 1: The Two Pillars of Shifting Public Sentiment: Disappointment and a Desire for Checks and Balances - By Kwon Hyuk-yong

Topic 2: It is Difficult to Predict Whether Changes in Public Sentiment Will Translate into Votes in the General Election - By Jeong Han-ul

Topic 3: Three Key Variables for Predicting General Election Outcomes - By Kwon Hyuk-yong & Jeong Han-ul

It is difficult to predict whether changes in public sentiment will translate into votes in the general election.

Jeong Han-ul (Deputy Director, EAI Center for Public Opinion Analysis)

The political landscape remains unsettled, with controversies surrounding the nomination process and defections by nominated candidates who were excluded. Amidst this, projections suggest that the Grand National Party may struggle to secure an outright majority. Tracking public opinion shifts from the last presidential election to the present through panel surveys reveals a decline in support for the Lee Myung-bak administration and criticism of its initial policy management. However, a more cautious approach is needed to determine whether these changes in public sentiment will translate into nationwide voting intentions in the general election.

Nationwide Political Landscape and Voting Intentions Remain Calm

Comparing the results of surveys conducted immediately after the December presidential election with the current March survey, using the same respondents, reveals no significant changes in the nationwide support landscape. With the exception of a 4.1 percentage point increase in support for the Democratic Party, which has benefited considerably from the nomination process, rising from 14.2% to 18.3% compared to its predecessor, the United Democratic Party, and a decrease in support for the splinter Democratic Labor Party, the results are so similar that one might mistakenly believe they were gathered at the same time. If this is the case, what is the reason why the changes in public sentiment, stemming from disappointment with the government, are not reflected in general election voting intentions? [Figure 8]

Key Reasons Why Turbulent Public Sentiment Is Not Translating into Voting Intentions

Strong Grand National Party Support Base in the 45-49% Range, a Factor Mitigating Sharp Shifts in Voter Sentiment

The formation of a stable party support base is preventing a further decline in the Grand National Party's general election support ratings nationwide. The Grand National Party has shown a very stable support base in the 45-49% range from April of last year, when the presidential panel survey began, to the present. Generally, party identification is known to persist for a long time once formed and to strongly influence short-term political behavior such as voting. Although the party is failing to fully absorb this strong support base into general election support due to disappointment with the current administration and a desire for checks and balances, this strong party support base remains a force maintaining the Grand National Party's advantage in the general election. [Figure 9]

Weak Alternative of the Democratic Party; Only 35.1% of Those Disappointed with the President's Performance and 38.9% of Those Favoring Checks and Balances Support the Democratic Party

There is no suitable alternative for voters to turn to, given their disappointment with and desire to check the new administration. While it is clear that the Democratic Party, which had suffered from low support ratings fluctuating between 5% and 14%, is on an upward trend, reaching nearly 20% in this survey, it is still insufficient. Among voters critical of the new administration's governance, only 35.1% stated they would support the Democratic Party in the general election. Furthermore, only 38.9% of voters who believe in checking the president and the ruling party in this general election responded that they would choose the Democratic Party. Conversely, 87.2% of voters who favor stable governance stated they would support the Grand National Party in the general election. The fact that the Democratic Party's support ratings are not significantly rebounding, even amidst the expansion of the check-and-balance sentiment, demonstrates how difficult it is to win back a lost support base. [Figure 10]

Coexistence of Disappointment and Expectation Regarding the Lee Myung-bak Administration

While it is true that much of the expectation for the Lee Myung-bak administration has faded, over half, 60.2%, still believe it is performing well and hold strong expectations for economic growth, job creation, and relations with the United States. Regarding relations with the United States and economic growth, the responses indicating improvement were high, at 70.6% and 55.5%, respectively. Therefore, although distrust and dissatisfaction with the government have increased in the short period since its inauguration concerning the transition team, senior presidential secretary and ministerial appointments, and policies on several national tasks, the remaining expectations and trust in the government mean that the situation does not warrant a fundamental reconsideration of voter sentiment. [Figure 3], [Figure 5]

Ultimately, to understand the discrepancy between the decline in support for the new administration in the early stages of its term and the Grand National Party's advantage in general election sentiment, one must consider the coexistence of disappointment and expectation regarding the new administration, the strong party support base, and the public's reluctance to fully embrace the Democratic Party as an alternative. Whether this discrepancy will persist or change will be determined by the remaining 20 days of the election process. It is still difficult to predict which way the balance of power will tip.