[Opinion Briefing No. 26-4] Strong Caution Against Pushing Ahead with the Grand Korean Waterway

[Opinion Briefing No. 26] "Post-General Election Political Climate: The Need for Harmonious Leadership"

[1] Public Sentiment in the General Election as Seen Through Split Voting - Kim Min-jeon

[2] Lessons from Declining Voter Turnout, Public Sentiment of Hidden Non-voters - Lee Hyun-woo

[3] The Future of the Grand National Party Defectors and President Lee's Leadership - Seo Hyun-jin

[4] Strong Caution Against Pushing Ahead with the Grand Korean Waterway - Yoo Sung-jin

The Lee Myung-bak Administration's National Task 2 After the General Election.

Strong Caution Against Pushing Ahead with the Grand Korean Waterway

Demand for Harmonious Leadership Over Strong Driving Force

Yoo Sung-jin (Ewha Womans University, Political Science BK21)

The public has provided the Lee Myung-bak administration with the conditions for stable state management by granting the ruling Grand National Party a majority of seats in the general election. However, by favoring pro-Park Geun-hye candidates and independents in Yeongnam, the Grand National Party's traditional stronghold, and by supporting the Democratic Party and the Liberty Forward Party in Chungcheong, the public has created a check on the forceful political management demonstrated during the nomination process and the early days of the administration. According to panel survey results conducted immediately after the general election, public opinion is sending a clearer warning message regarding the Grand Korean Waterway issue, which is set to emerge as a key issue in the post-general election political landscape.

Should the Grand Korean Waterway be pursued?

When asked how the Lee Myung-bak administration should proceed with the Grand Korean Waterway project after the general election, 66.6% of respondents expressed opposition, while only 25.5% were in favor. This negative public opinion regarding the Grand Korean Waterway holds greater significance when compared to previous panel survey results. Following the presidential election, public opinion on the Grand Korean Waterway was evenly split at 43.1% versus 45.6%. Just before the general election, opposition began to gain the upper hand at 30% versus 57.9%, and in the current survey, the gap has widened further, indicating that two out of three people hold a negative view on the pursuit of the Grand Korean Waterway project.

[Figure 1] Trend of Public Opinion on the Grand Korean Waterway

Note 1. Comprehensive results from the 3rd, 4th, and 6th presidential election panels and the 1st and 2nd general election panels.

The Grand Korean Waterway: If Pursued, How?

This negative public sentiment is also reflected in opinions on how the government should proceed with the Grand Korean Waterway project after the general election. When asked how the Lee Myung-bak administration should handle the Grand Korean Waterway project after the general election, 62.3% of respondents stated that the feasibility of the project should be re-examined or that it should not be pursued at all. In contrast, only half of that (32.4%) suggested that it should be pursued cautiously after gathering public opinion. The fact that only 5% of all respondents answered that the project should be pursued as originally planned, as it was a campaign pledge, symbolically illustrates how much public sentiment has soured regarding the Grand Korean Waterway.

[Figure 2] Opinions on the Method of Pursuing the Grand Korean Waterway Project







The Grand Korean Waterway and Presidential Leadership: A Call for Leadership of Stability and Harmony Over Strong State Management

This public opinion regarding the Grand Korean Waterway is even more interesting when examined in conjunction with the desired future state management style for President Lee Myung-bak. When asked what form of leadership they desired from President Lee Myung-bak in the future, 43.7% of respondents called for leadership focused on stability and harmony, while leadership styles focused on strong state management and the practical CEO approach accounted for 23.4% and 29.2% respectively, indicating that the majority of the public desires a president focused on stability and harmony.

Opinions on the method of pursuing the Grand Korean Waterway project varied significantly depending on the preferred presidential leadership style. Approximately 70% of respondents who preferred a leadership style focused on stability and harmony stated that the feasibility of the project should be re-examined or that it should not be pursued at all. In contrast, 47% of those who preferred a strong state management leadership style stated that it should be pursued cautiously after gathering public opinion, slightly exceeding the 43% who believed it should be re-examined or not pursued at all. A notable fact is that even among respondents who desired the practical CEO leadership style, which was a strength of President Lee Myung-bak during his presidential campaign, negative opinions on the method of pursuing the Grand Korean Waterway project reached 67.6%, nearly identical to the respondents who requested a leadership style focused on stability and harmony. Considering that 72% of the public desires a leadership style focused on stability and harmony and the practical CEO approach, these figures offer significant implications for the president's future state management style.

Ultimately, the public sentiment reflected in the results of this general election indicates a demand for a president focused on stability and harmony rather than strong state management, and this demand is directly reflected in the preference for government policy implementation methods. The evaluation of policies that President Lee Myung-bak and the administration's policymakers will pursue in the future will depend on how well they read and reflect this public sentiment, as revealed in the general election results, in their policies.

[Table 1] Desired Presidential Leadership Style and Method of Pursuing the Grand Korean Waterway Project

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063