[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 41-4] MB Approval Rating 38.5%, Unaffiliated Voters Exhibit 'Wild Instincts'

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 41] Table of Contents

[1] Key Issue After One Year in Office: Perception of 'Economy' as a Major Concern

[2] What Should Be the Ideological Stance of the Lee Myung-bak Administration in its Second Year?

[3] Public Opinion Trends on Current Issues

[4] Assessment and Outlook for the Lee Myung-bak Administration as it Enters its Second Year

Assessment and Outlook for the Lee Myung-bak Administration as it Enters its Second Year

February 2009, One Year After Taking Office: MB Approval Rating at 38.5%

The Lee Myung-bak administration experienced a decline in approval ratings to below 20% by the end of May 2008, due to dissatisfaction with the initial appointments of presidential staff and cabinet members within 100 days of taking office, and the mad cow disease beef controversy. Subsequently, due to the Lee Myung-bak administration's firm response and the waning momentum of the candlelight protests, the approval rating for state administration hit its lowest point and has recorded over 30% since late 2008. The current survey shows 38.5%, which, while still low in absolute terms, indicates that a basic foundation for governing in the second year has been laid by continuing a gradual upward trend.

[Figure 17] Trend of Approval Ratings for the Lee Myung-bak Administration During its First Year

Partial Recovery of Support Base Lost During Mad Cow Disease Controversy; New Political Realignment Unlikely

 

There is a pattern where traditional Grand National Party supporters (Yeongnam/50s/conservative) and some newly acquired supporters from the Seoul metropolitan area/40s who had defected early in the administration are now lending support to the Lee Myung-bak administration. Although negative public opinion towards the Lee Myung-bak administration overwhelmingly outweighs positive opinion, considering that during the mad cow disease beef controversy, almost all groups except for some traditional supporters were critical of the administration, it appears that approval ratings have been recovered among the traditional Grand National Party support base and those who supported candidate Lee Myung-bak in the last presidential election.

Ideologically, there is a significant gap between the approval ratings of conservatives, who are the traditional supporters of the Grand National Party and candidate Lee Myung-bak, at 48.5%, and those of the centrist and progressive groups, at the mid-30% range.

Regionally, approval ratings in the Gwangju/Jeolla region are 13.1%, while other regions show approval ratings in the high 30% to low 40% range. Notably, negative assessments of the Lee Myung-bak administration are now the prevailing sentiment across all regions, including the traditional regional base of Yeongnam, which showed overwhelming support in the presidential election, and the Seoul and Gyeonggi regions, which have shifted to become a balance of public opinion and a support base for Lee Myung-bak.

By occupation, approval ratings are relatively high among self-employed individuals, blue-collar workers, and those in agriculture, forestry, and fishing. Conversely, approval ratings are low among professional white-collar workers and students (white-collar: 25.7%, students: 20.2%).

Given that education level is correlated with occupation, it is inevitable that there are significant disparities in the President's support base by education level. Among those with higher education (university graduates and above), approval ratings are 29.1%, while among those with lower education (middle school graduates and below), approval ratings are 53.1%.

By age group, anti-Lee Myung-bak sentiment is strong among young people in their 20s and 30s, while over half (55.4%) of those aged 50 and above positively evaluate the President's state administration.

In summary, first, given that white-collar workers and highly educated individuals, who have significant influence on public opinion, are particularly critical of the Lee Myung-bak administration, it is projected that the administration will continue to face low approval ratings and unfavorable public opinion as it enters its second year.

Second, as the Lee Myung-bak administration enters its second year, it is unlikely that significant political realignment replacing existing political divisions can be expected in the near future. The Lee Myung-bak administration was elected by absorbing support bases beyond the traditional Grand National Party supporters—such as the elderly, those with lower education, conservatives, and residents of the Yeongnam region—to include parts of the Seoul/Gyeonggi metropolitan area, younger generations, and some centrists and progressives, leading to expectations of new political divisions transcending existing generational, regional, and ideological cleavages. However, the current situation reflects the re-emergence of traditional political divisions. Furthermore, with the opposition parties facing a severe crisis of trust, the possibility of new political alliances (such as party alliances like a three-party merger or regional alliances like the DJP alliance) led by the opposition is very low.

[Figure 18] Public Support Base for President Lee Myung-bak: 'Very Good + Generally Good' (%)

Unaffiliated Voters Show Strong 'Wild Instincts'; Risk of Increased Political Distrust and Cynicism

Grand National Party 34.9%, Democratic Party 16.4%, Democratic Labor Party 6.7%, Liberty Forward Party 2.7%, New Progressive Party 2.5%, Creative Korea Party 1.5%, Unaffiliated 30.9%

Compared to the period just before the general election in March 2008, the Grand National Party's approval rating has fallen by 12.7 percentage points (47.6% → 34.9%). In contrast, the Democratic Party's approval rating has fallen by 3 percentage points (19.4% → 16.4%). The Liberty Forward Party's rating is 2.7%, showing little change from a year ago (3.2%). Currently, the Democratic Labor Party (6.7%), New Progressive Party (2.5%), and Creative Korea Party (1.5%) together account for about 10% of the approval ratings for progressive parties, showing a slight upward trend compared to a year ago.

However, the increase in the unaffiliated voter segment is notable. Ultimately, the increase in support for the Grand National Party has not led to the emergence of the main opposition party or third parties, but rather has been absorbed into the unaffiliated voter segment. A significant portion of the unaffiliated voters consists of those who have defected from supporting Lee Myung-bak and the Grand National Party, forming a strong bloc of opposition to the MB administration and its key policies. Indeed, they hold a considerably critical stance towards the MB administration's state affairs (positive evaluation: 26.7%), its educational policy direction (opposition: 61%), and the guilty verdict for netizens involved in the beef boycott campaign (68.8%). However, the main opposition party, the Democratic Party, has failed to absorb the defectors from the ruling party into its support base. Progressive minor parties are also struggling to emerge as significant political forces due to recent blows to the credibility of the progressive camp, such as the alleged cover-up of sexual assault, and internal divisions.

If disappointment with the ruling party's leadership and the absence of a meaningful alternative continue, there is a high probability that this will lead to widespread cynicism and distrust towards the political establishment as a whole. This is not conducive to the future of Korean democracy. The importance of overcoming the political crisis, as much as the economic crisis, must not be overlooked.

[Figure 19] Changes in Party Approval Ratings During the First Year After Inauguration (%)

Source: EAIㆍJoongAng Ilbo (February 2008)