[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 41-2] The Ideological Stance of the MB Administration

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 41] Table of Contents

[1] The Top Priority Issue of the First Year in Office: "Economy"

[2] Where Should the Lee Myung-bak Administration's Ideological Stance Go in its Second Year?

[3] Public Opinion Trends on Key Issues

[4] Assessment and Outlook for the MB Administration Entering its Second Year

Where Should the Lee Myung-bak Administration's Ideological Stance Go in its Second Year?

○ The Lee Myung-bak Administration's Ideological Tendency as Perceived by the Public Has Become More Conservative Over the Past Year

○ Support Rises When the Administration's Stance Approaches One's Own Ideological Stance

○ Support for the Lee Myung-bak Administration Rises When Perceived as Relatively More Progressive Than One's Own

Lee Myung-bak's Ideological Stance Has Shifted Towards Conservatism Over the Past Year; The Public's Ideological Lean Leftward Widens the Gap

Q: What do you think is the ideological tendency of the Lee Myung-bak administration? Please rate on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is very progressive, 5 is moderate, and 10 is very conservative.

Q: What do you think is your own ideological tendency? Please rate on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is very progressive, 5 is moderate, and 10 is very conservative.

- Immediately after the presidential election: 5.4 points → After one year in office: 5.9 points (shifted right)

- "MB is progressive": 34% → decreased to 24.2%

- Average personal ideology: 5.4 points → After one year in office: 4.8 points (shifted left)

The public perceives the Lee Myung-bak administration's ideological stance as having become more conservative compared to immediately after the presidential election. Immediately after the presidential election in 2007, respondents rated Lee Myung-bak's ideological stance at an average of 5.4 points, indicating a perception of a moderate or slightly center-right tendency. At that time, 45.2% of respondents considered the candidate conservative, 20.1% considered him moderate, and a significant 34.0% considered him progressive. This was a result of his campaign's emphasis on pragmatism, moving beyond traditional ideological lines. Despite being the candidate of the conservative Grand National Party, he was able to attract support from some centrist and progressive voters.

One year later, the public understands the Lee Myung-bak administration's ideology as having shifted to the right (more conservative) compared to immediately after the presidential election. While the proportion of respondents who consider the administration conservative remains similar (45.2% → 44.0%), the percentage of those who describe it as progressive has significantly decreased from 34.0% to 24.2%. The overall average score has also risen to 5.9, indicating a perception that the administration has moved to the right.

Similarly, immediately after the presidential election survey, the public's self-assessment of their own ideology averaged 5.4 points, matching the administration's ideological evaluation score. This result can be interpreted through the lens of rational choice theory, where voters select candidates closest to their own ideology. However, one year later, the public's self-assessment score has shifted to 4.8 points, moving slightly left of center. The strong public criticism of the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration appears to have reinforced negative perceptions of conservative ideology. Consequently, the ideological gap between the Lee Myung-bak administration and the public has widened over the past year.

[Figure 5] Changes in Ideological Position Scores of the Lee Myung-bak Administration and the Public (Points)

[Figure 6] Changes in the Distribution of the Lee Myung-bak Administration's Ideological Tendency as Assessed by the Public (%)

Support Rises When Perceived as Close to One's Own Ideological Stance

Ideological Conservatism Does Not Aid National Governance Support

1. Ideological Distance

Respondents were more favorable in their assessment of national governance when they felt the Lee Myung-bak administration's ideological position was close to their own. When the distance between an individual's ideological position and the perceived ideological stance of the Lee Myung-bak administration (calculated as the absolute difference between the individual's ideological score and the administration's perceived score) was close (0-2 points difference), the approval rating for national governance reached 46.2%. However, when the distance widened slightly (3-6 points difference) or significantly (7-10 points difference), the approval rating for the Lee Myung-bak administration dropped to 29.9% and 11.1%, respectively.

[Figure 7] National Governance Support (%) by Distance Between Self and MB Administration's Ideological Position

Note 1. "Don't know/No answer" is not shown.

2. Ideological Direction: People Prefer the Government to Be More Progressive Than Themselves

Examining the difference between respondents' self-assessed ideological scores and the Lee Myung-bak administration's perceived ideological scores, respondents can be categorized into those who perceive the administration as 'more progressive' than themselves, those who perceive it as 'the same' as themselves, and those who perceive it as 'more conservative' than themselves. Analyzing national governance approval ratings by these groups reveals that approval ratings are higher when the Lee Myung-bak administration is perceived as being to the left (progressive) or the same as oneself, compared to when it is perceived as being to the right (conservative).

Among those who perceive the Lee Myung-bak administration as more progressive than their own ideological stance, the approval rating for President Lee Myung-bak's national governance stands at 49.8%. Among those who perceive the administration's ideology as the same as their own, the positive assessment of President Lee Myung-bak's national governance is 50.3%, significantly exceeding the average approval rating. However, among respondents who perceive the Lee Myung-bak administration's ideology as more conservative than their own, the national governance approval rating drops to 26.6%, falling far short of the negative response rate of 72.1%.

This pattern is also observed when examining by ideological tendency. Among progressives, the approval rating for the Lee Myung-bak administration's governance is only 30.5% when perceived as more conservative than themselves, but it exceeds half when perceived as the same or more progressive. Among moderates, the approval rating for the Lee Myung-bak administration was 20.3% when perceived as more conservative than themselves, but it rose to 43.5% when perceived as the same, and 52.9% when perceived as more progressive. Among conservatives, the approval rating was a high 74.2% when they perceived the Lee Myung-bak administration's ideological position as the same as their own. Furthermore, even within the conservative group, voters who considered the Lee Myung-bak administration more progressive than themselves showed higher approval ratings than those who considered it more conservative. Approval ratings were 47.4% for those who viewed the administration as more progressive, compared to 31.8% for those who viewed it as more conservative than themselves.

Ultimately, the public desires policies from the Lee Myung-bak administration that align with their own ideological tendencies (ideological proximity). However, national governance approval ratings increase when the public perceives the administration as more progressive than themselves (ideological direction). Conversely, perceiving the administration as more conservative can weaken support.

Therefore, if the Lee Myung-bak administration is solely considering its national governance approval ratings for its second year in office, it needs to shift to the left from its current position. However, given that the current support for the Lee Myung-bak administration is underpinned by traditional conservative forces, such a shift could lead to a loosening of its core support base. All past administrations have faced the dilemma of needing to satisfy the majority of the public who do not support them, in addition to their own supporters, in order to become successful presidents. The choices facing the Lee Myung-bak administration in its second year are keenly awaited.

[Figure 8] National Governance Support (%) by Perceived Ideological Position of Self and MB Administration

[Figure 9] National Governance Support (%) by Respondent's Self-Assessed Ideology and MB Administration's Perceived Ideological Position