China Panel 2009, No. 1

"US Secretary of State Clinton's Visit to China and Sino-US Relations: A Duet of 'Sharing a Bed but Dreaming Different Dreams' and 'Sharing a Boat Despite Differences'"

A Journey to Explore

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first visit to Asia had already captured the attention of the international community before her departure as a significant event that would gauge the direction of the Obama administration's foreign policy. This was partly due to the unusual choice of Asia as the first destination for a new US Secretary of State's overseas trip, sparking debate on whether this visit signaled East Asia's priority in the Obama administration's foreign policy. Furthermore, the fact that the Obama administration, facing an economic crisis of unprecedented depth, chose to visit China, a rapidly rising power, became a focal point of interest. There was anticipation that clues might be found to forecast the future of Sino-US relations, a bilateral relationship receiving renewed attention amidst the global economic crisis. However, Secretary Clinton's visit to China was largely a preliminary meeting, characterized by a cautious exploration of the intentions and actions of fellow passengers as they embarked on a voyage of uncertain destination together in the same boat of economic crisis. As Secretary Clinton herself mentioned, this trip carried the meaning of a 'journey to explore' (試探之旅), seeking to refine future policy directions by listening to the perspectives of the host country.

Indeed, Secretary Clinton opted for a diplomatic approach that sought to explore by alleviating concerns each country held about the United States, rather than by immediately addressing predictable contentious issues and pending matters specific to each nation. For example, to assuage Japan's concerns about 'Japan passing,' she presented it with the gift of being the first Asian destination and the first state visit hosted by the Obama administration. To South Korea, she sought to reassure the government by repeatedly emphasizing assurances that it would not be sidelined in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. And towards China, she pursued a quiet diplomacy, actively avoiding highly sensitive traditional points of conflict such as human rights, Tibet, and Taiwan, and even sidestepping anticipated issues of currency and trade.

A Subtle Shift in Inertia: 'US Leadership and China's Strategic Accommodation'

Nevertheless, it is important to note several meaningful signs and phenomena observed during this visit that offer a glimpse into future Sino-US relations. First, further careful observation is needed to determine whether Secretary Clinton's unexpectedly cautious approach was merely a journey of exploration or an indication of a shift in US policy toward China. This is because Secretary Clinton's quiet diplomacy appears to be an extension of a series of events that have unfolded since the advent of the Obama administration. For instance, in the controversy over China being labeled a 'currency manipulator,' the US ultimately did not maintain even the minimal tough stance that had been anticipated. Conversely, during the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (February 9, 2009), Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan made remarks that seemed to offer advice to the US economy from the position of China being the largest creditor nation to the US. This can be seen as a subtle shift in the existing inertia of 'US leadership and China's strategic accommodation' that has characterized Sino-US relations. Recently, within China, there is a growing perception that the US-originated financial crisis is proof of the failure of American-style capitalism and a relative decline in US power, presenting an opportune moment to enhance China's status and influence in the international community. China perceives the global financial crisis as both a crisis and an opportunity to accelerate its path to becoming a major power. Indeed, Chinese leaders, starting with President Hu Jintao, have engaged in aggressive diplomacy, with four top leaders making separate visits to 19 countries in South America, the Middle East, and Africa within the first two months of 2009 alone, while also amplifying China's independent voice, for example, by criticizing protectionist tendencies at the G-20 summit.