Soft Power Comparison of Four Countries: US, China, Japan, and South Korea

Issue Brief No. 32: Soft Power in East Asia

[1] Soft Power Comparison of Four Countries: US, China, Japan, and South Korea

[2] Analysis of South Korea and its Soft Power from an External Perspective

1. Soft Power Comparison of Four Countries: US, China, Japan, and South Korea

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Several Assumptions Underpinning This Analysis

Due to a lack of empirical research on soft power, there appears to be no clear consensus on the criteria for interpreting results derived from public opinion surveys. This analysis aims to present findings and interpretations based on several assumptions at a preliminary stage.

First, soft power should be understood in the context of the interplay between external reputation and a nation's own confidence. Joseph Nye, for instance, analyzed the size and key resources of a nation's soft power primarily through an assessment of external favorability ratings across various domains towards that country (mainly the US). However, to understand how a nation's soft power operates, it is necessary to consider both the nation's self-assessment and its external reputation. This is because if external reputation is considered an objective resource of soft power, then internal confidence can be seen as a necessary condition for converting soft power resources into actual influence.

Second, soft power has a certain relationship with hard power. Some view soft power as an extension of hard power, while others see it as an independent force distinct from hard power. Therefore, the correlation between hard power and soft power of the surveyed countries must be analyzed.

Third, when evaluating soft power resources, it is important to pay attention to relative assessments as much as absolute ones. That is, the idea that asymmetry with other countries may be more important than the absolute magnitude of power for power resources to be converted into actual influence. For example, even if a country's reputation in a certain cultural domain is very high, if its reputation in other countries is also high, thus minimizing the gap, this domain might be interpreted as a condition where soft power resources are difficult to exercise. Conversely, even if a reputation is not high in an absolute sense, if it is relatively high compared to its reputation in other countries, it is assumed that this resource is more likely to be exercised as actualized soft power for that country.

(1) Self-evaluation: national pride

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Regarding self-assessments of soft power resources by citizens of the surveyed countries, pride in cultural dimensions such as history, sports, and literature surpassed pride in fundamental national power areas like political systems and economy in all four countries. However, pride in science and technology was high across all four nations.

A notable characteristic is the significant disparity in relative gaps between countries in the political and economic spheres. While China's pride in politics and economy is relatively lower compared to other domains, it surpasses that of US citizens in these areas. The most striking feature is the significantly low pride among South Korean and Japanese citizens regarding their respective economies and political systems. Particularly in the case of political systems, only 10% of South Koreans and 23% of Japanese citizens responded positively, indicating conditions that make it difficult to exercise soft power in the political dimension, irrespective of external perceptions.

A more detailed examination by country is as follows.

First, Chinese citizens reported the highest pride in most domains. The order was history (90%), sports (90%), science and technology (88%), arts and literature (75%), politics (70%), and economy (69%). While political and economic pride were relatively lower, they maintained a considerably high level of pride in an absolute sense.

Second, US citizens show particular pride in science and technology, with a remarkable 95% expressing pride. High confidence was also observed in cultural factors such as history, arts and literature, and sports. Similarly, confidence in political systems and the economy was relatively lower.

Third, Japan also shows stronger pride in science and technology > arts and literature > history > sports, while only 51% expressed pride in the economy. A noteworthy point is the extreme self-contempt regarding the political system.

Fourth, this is also the case for South Korea. In South Korea, pride is high, led by sports (87%), followed by science and technology (84%) > history (72%) > arts and literature (66%). In these areas, positive evaluations outweigh negative ones. However, extreme self-contempt is evident in pride regarding the political system and economy. Only 25% expressed pride in the economy and 10% in the political system, indicating that 8-9 out of ten people do not feel proud of South Korea's political and economic achievements.

[Figure 1] Pride in Own Country by Domain "Proud (Very + Somewhat)" (%)

(2) Objective Evaluation: External Reputation

External reputation is examined on two main dimensions. On an emotional level, we analyze cultural affinity (degree of shared values and lifestyles) and national favorability. On a cognitive level, we analyze the soft power of East Asian countries by calculating country evaluations and indicators for each domain, as well as composite indicators composed of these.

1. Emotional Dimension: Cultural Affinity and National Favorability

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Cultural Affinity: Classifiable into US-Japan vs. China-Southeast Asia; South Korea is isolated.

First, we converted the proportion of respondents who believe there is cultural affinity (belief in shared values and lifestyles) between their own country and South Korea, China, the US, and Japan into distances to compare their relative positions. That is, the greater the distance, the stronger the public opinion that there is a cultural distance between the two countries. Multidimensional Unfolding (MDU) was applied to comprehensively consider the spatial positions of the surveyed countries (cases) and the surveyed variables.

As easily confirmed from the figure, regarding cultural affinity distances, Japanese and Americans can be seen as having high cultural affinity with each other. Citizens of Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, appear to have cultural affinity with China more than with the US or Japan. South Korea, on the other hand, appears isolated, not belonging to any of these groups. From the perspective of South Koreans, the cultural distance with China and Japan is relatively small. However, the intensity of perceived homogeneity in values or lifestyles with South Korea was relatively weak among citizens of Japan, China, and the US.

[Figure 2] Cultural Affinity Distance between 4 East Asian Countries (South Korea, China, US, Japan) as Perceived by Citizens of 6 Countries

National Favorability

US Favorability Improving, China Favorability Declining, Japan & South Korea Remain Unchanged

South Korea/Japan's Most Preferred Country is the US; Americans/Southeast Asians' Most Preferred Country is Japan

Chinese Prefer South Korea the Most

In 2008, various international opinion polls reported that global attitudes towards the US, which had been deteriorating since the Iraq War, began to show some improvement (BBC ∙ EAI 2008). Comparing with the EAI ∙ CCGA survey in 2006, changes in attitudes towards the US can be detected. Firstly, regarding favorability towards the US, the significant increase in positive perceptions of the US in China is most noteworthy. The fact that the US receives relatively consistent favorability from East Asian countries such as China, South Korea, and Japan is also a strength for the US. Citizens of Indonesia (55.5 degrees) and Vietnam (67.6 degrees) show a more favorable response than towards Japan, although the difference is not substantial in absolute terms.

Meanwhile, Japan receives lukewarm responses from citizens of neighboring countries like China and South Korea, but its greatest asset is receiving the highest favorability from US citizens (57.9 degrees) and Southeast Asian countries. Indonesian citizens show a favorable attitude with 65.5 degrees, and Vietnamese citizens with 68.4 degrees. Japan receives the best evaluation in these countries compared to others.

Regarding China, the favorability of Americans towards China has been continuously decreasing since 2004 (30 degrees, down from 44 degrees in 2004 and 40 degrees in 2006), and it is also becoming increasingly cold in South Korea (50 degrees, down from 58 degrees in 2006 and 57 degrees in 2004). This trend serves as a warning for China's soft power strategy. Japan also received a low score of 45 degrees. However, favorability towards China was relatively high among citizens of Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia and Vietnam. Nevertheless, it did not reach the level of favorability towards Japan, and while it was slightly more favorable than towards the US among Indonesian citizens, it was lower than towards the US in Vietnam.

In the case of South Korea, external perceptions are also not favorable. While favorability from Indonesia has increased by about 5 points compared to 2006, it has significantly dropped from 73 points to 64.5 points in China, a representative pro-Korean country. This result supports the argument that, starting with the Northeast Project, favorability towards China has rapidly cooled in South Korea, and conversely, anti-Korean sentiment has been forming in China.

[Figure 3] Favorability of South Korea, US, China, and Japan as Perceived by Citizens of 6 Countries

Note 1. Average score based on a scale of 0 (very unfavorable) to 100 (very favorable) for favorability towards each country.

[Figure 4] Changes in Favorability Towards Four East Asian Countries (2004-2006)

a. Favorability Towards the US b. Favorability Towards Japan

c. Favorability Towards China d. Favorability Towards South Korea

Note 1. Average score based on a scale of 0 (very unfavorable) to 100 (very favorable) for favorability towards each country.

2. Cognitive Dimension: Domain-Specific Evaluations and Overall Evaluation "US and Japan Lead Together; China Falls Behind in Competitiveness"

This study analyzes the soft power of major East Asian countries on three levels: individual indicators for each sub-item, domain-specific indicators that synthesize these, and an overall indicator calculated as the average of the domain-specific indicators. The indicator composition system is as follows:

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In terms of overall ranking, the United States received the highest score with 71.7 points, followed by Japan with 68.4 points. Notably, South Korea scored 60.7 points, narrowly surpassing China's 58.4 points. The gap in soft power is significantly narrowing.

[Figure 5] Comprehensive Soft Power Index (SPI) by Country, CCGA

Note 1. Based on a scale of 0 (no influence) to 10 (very influential), the average scores provided by respondents from 5 countries (excluding the evaluation of the citizens of the evaluated country) for each field were converted to a 100-point scale.

US Soft Power Holds Narrow Lead, Gap Maintained in Human/Knowledge Capital

Examining subjective soft power indicators, the US shows a slight advantage over Japan in most areas, including economy, culture, diplomacy, and politics. However, a relatively large gap is maintained only in human capital/technology/knowledge base. Ultimately, it can be seen that the power of the superpower US's soft power in East Asia is primarily based on its superiority in the knowledge/human resources domain.

Japan Competes with US in Soft Power in East Asia, Gap with South Korea/China in Economic Sector

Despite diplomatic friction with China and South Korea, Japan appears to exert relatively high soft power in the Asian region overall. While a gap exists with the US in human capital/technology/knowledge base, it is evaluated as being nearly on par with the US in other areas. Japan is distanced from China, with which it competes for regional hegemony, and South Korea, which is pursuing qualitative advancement at a national level, in most areas. In particular, its overwhelming advantage in the economic sector over China and South Korea appears to maintain the overall soft power gap with these countries.

South Korea Highly Rated in Politics/Culture, Lacking in Economic/Human Capital Soft Power

In the case of South Korea, it lags behind the United States and Japan, but is evaluated as being equal to or slightly ahead of China's soft power, based on its soft power in the political and diplomatic fields. Despite the 'Korean Wave,' which is receiving domestic and international attention, South Korea's soft power in the cultural sphere ranks slightly below China's. However, in terms of absolute scores, it is clearly one of the areas receiving positive evaluations, along with the political/human resources domain. Considering that the gap with the United States and Japan is closest in this field, it can be assessed as one of the pillars supporting South Korea's soft power.

China's Soft Power Strategy Yields Little in East Asia

The most significant characteristic revealed in this survey is that China's soft power is not effectively operating in the East Asian region. Excluding the evaluations from two Southeast Asian countries, which are relatively favorable to China, the assessments of China in the US, Japan, and South Korea were lukewarm. Even setting aside the US and Japan, which are wary of China as a potential hegemonic rival, the low evaluation from South Korea, with which it has maintained friendly relations for some time, indicates that despite its formidable political, economic, and military power, China is not in a position to rival major powers in terms of soft power. In particular, the case of South Korea appears to be a result of deteriorating perceptions of China following the Northeast Project. Considering the significant damage to its international image due to the recent Tibet incident, considerable time and investment will be required for China to reach a stage where it can exercise leadership in East Asia.

[Table 1] Soft Power Evaluation Index by 5 Major Fields and Overall Index for 4 East Asian Countries

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China's Competitiveness Recognized Primarily in Hard Power

The citizens of East Asian countries appear to recognize China's rise and competitiveness more in the realm of hard power than in soft power. Following the 9/11 attacks, an perception emerged that China was accelerating its soft power diplomacy, taking advantage of the weaknesses in public diplomacy caused by unilateral US foreign policy. However, as observed earlier, while the soft power of the US and Japan is prominent, China's soft power strategy has not yet been successful and is perceived or evaluated as weak. Instead, China's hard power is assessed as having considerable competitiveness, although somewhat less than that of the US. In particular, China's influence on the Asian economy is evaluated as being nearly on par with that of the US.

[Figure 6] Evaluation of 4 Countries' Power in Hard Power Domains (Points)

Note 1. 0 indicates no influence at all, and 10 indicates very high influence. This is a score converted to 100 points based on the average score of respondents from the other 5 countries (4 countries in the case of military power evaluation, excluding Vietnam), excluding the country in question.