[Public Opinion Brief No. 3] Analysis of the Big Three's Support Base

The Big Three's Support Base and Prospects for the 2007 Presidential Election

Kim Jang-soo (Research Professor, Institute for Peace Studies, Korea University)

The 2007 presidential election is being discussed with a focus on the possibility of a revival for the ruling party and internal competition within the Grand National Party. Will the current competitive landscape of the Big Three—former Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak, Grand National Party lawmaker Park Geun-hye, and former Prime Minister Goh Kun—continue, given the poor performance of ruling party candidates nearing collapse? In this regard, two recent debates have emerged: the "illusory number theory" of Lee Myung-bak's support base and the theory of the ruling camp's support base regrouping.

According to the Lee Myung-bak illusory number theory, Lee Myung-bak's current lead in opinion polls is a temporary phenomenon resulting from the support of existing ruling camp supporters in the absence of a strong ruling party candidate. Therefore, it is predicted that Lee Myung-bak's lead will naturally disappear once a candidate is confirmed and the existing ruling camp supporters return to their original affiliations.

The Lee Myung-bak illusory number theory leads to the second debate: is the regrouping of the ruling camp's support base possible? The core of the discussion is that as the election campaign intensifies, temporarily departed existing supporters will regroup, forming a tight contest between the Grand National Party and the ruling party candidate. The regrouping theory is currently circulating primarily within the ruling camp and has been confirmed in previous election experiences. A survey conducted by Hankook Ilbo and the East Asia Institute (Director Kim Byung-kook, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University) commissioned to Korea Research, interviewing 1,032 adults nationwide from November 22 to December 5, provides clues to these two debates.

Overall, the Lee Myung-bak illusory number theory, which posits that former Mayor Lee Myung-bak's lead of 27.6% versus 15.7% is based on the overwhelming support of existing ruling camp supporters, turns out to be only half true. In the last presidential and general elections, Lee Myung-bak overwhelmingly led Park Geun-hye among ruling party supporters, with 21.3% vs. 7.2% and 21.1% vs. 6.3%, respectively. However, in these same elections, Lee Myung-bak also led Park Geun-hye among Grand National Party supporters to a similar extent as the overall average. In other words, even if existing ruling camp supporters return to their original affiliations, the basis for the illusory number theory is weak, as the internal competition's outcome would not change solely with Grand National Party supporters (see Table 1).

The assertion that supporters will return to their original affiliations is true, but a shift to a close contest is only possible if the influence is considerably strong. The shift to a close contest depends on the size and disposition of undecided voters and the qualitative differences in support for candidates on specific issues. In the extreme scenario where all undecided voters, currently at 31.6%, decide to support ruling party candidates, a close contest might be expected. However, since not all undecided voters are existing ruling camp supporters, the possibility of a shift to a close contest is not high in the current situation. Similar prospects are possible for the Grand National Party's internal competition. The proportion of existing Grand National Party supporters who have not yet decided on a candidate is very low, around 7%, and even if all of them were to support Park Geun-hye, it would not overturn Lee Myung-bak's current lead.

Another possibility for the current situation to change can be found in the shift towards an issue-centric election as the presidential campaign intensifies. Currently, the Grand National Party appears to be leading significantly on all issues. However, it is undeniable that the ruling camp, positioning itself as the party of the working and middle classes, has an advantage at least in terms of alleviating income inequality and promoting welfare. In this regard, it is noteworthy that despite the nationwide anger over the Roh Moo-hyun administration's failures and a tendency to focus on economic growth, a considerable number of citizens responded that alleviating income inequality and promoting welfare are the most important capabilities for the next president.

Considering the Grand National Party's negative image in this regard, as economic polarization progresses, a contest is anticipated between the issues of alleviating the wealth gap and promoting welfare, and resolving related social conflicts, and the issues of economic growth and job creation, which the Grand National Party has preempted. The shift from a judgment on the Roh Moo-hyun administration to a confrontation of issues remains the only possibility for a close race by rallying the pro-government camp's supporters.

Former Prime Minister Goh Kun shows limitations, appearing to be in a competitive state only with Grand National Party candidates in the areas of political reform and political leadership, which constitute a relatively small proportion (11.2%) of the overall electorate. Lawmaker Park Geun-hye gains equivalent support to former Mayor Lee Myung-bak only in improving inter-Korean relations, an issue considered important by a negligible percentage of voters (2.4%). If the current situation persists, even if the next presidential election shifts to an issue-based confrontation, the possibility of Lee Myung-bak's lead changing is not high.