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NATO-IP4 in an Unstable Hybrid Order: Connecting, Not Fragmenting
Editor's Note
Inhwan Oh, Senior Research Fellow at EAI, diagnoses the current world order not as a new Cold War or multipolarity, but as an "unstable hybrid order" where the U.S. and China compete without strategic settlement. The author explains that acknowledging this reality frees the NATO-IP4 partnership from the misconception of being an 'Asian NATO,' highlighting instead its role in enabling middle powers to collectively reshape the global order in ways that redress its past flaws. Dr. Oh suggests that deepening concrete coordination in areas like maritime industrial ecosystems and emerging technologies while increasing the transparency of engagements with China will ensure NATO-IP4 connects, rather than fragments, the regions of the world.
| About the Hub 'The Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic Hub for Shared Security Challenges' is a virtual network connecting think tanks and universities from Republic of Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand and NATO countries interested in enhancing understanding of common challenges between the two regions. This public engagement initiative is supported by a grant from NATO Headquarters and it is open to relevant stakeholders from the two regions. Interested parties can contact: Dr. Pietro De Matteis, Engagement Officer for the Indo-Pacific, NATO HQ (dematteis.pietro@hq.nato.int). The network currently involves: - Republic of Korea: East Asia Institute; Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies; Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; The Sejong Institute; - Japan: Economic Security Intelligence Lab, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo; Japan Institute of International Affairs; Keio Center for Strategy at Keio University. - Australia: Australian Strategic Policy Institute; National Security College at the Australian National University. - New Zealand: Centre for Strategic Studies; New Zealand Institute of International Affairs; Asia New Zealand Foundation. |
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The world is not returning to a new Cold War or spheres of influence – labels that are too readily applied. Despite de-risking and supply chain reorganization, the U.S., China and the wider world remain deeply economically integrated, unlike during the Cold War. Nor does multipolarity capture the landscape: beyond the U.S. and China, it is difficult to identify poles of comparable strategic weight. Russia, while a legacy great power with residual regional influence, does not carry the same weight as the U.S. or China.
What we are witnessing is an unstable hybrid order, in which competing organizing principles asserted by the U.S., China and Russia contest without strategic settlement. Acknowledging this reality is critical for NATO–IP4. Such an acknowledgement disentangles the partnership from disinformation that frames it as an ‘Asian NATO’ or bloc politics. It also reinforces the rationale for cooperation: it is at this juncture that middle powers of the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic can collectively reshape the international order in ways that redress its past flaws.
Despite divergent threat perceptions across the two oceans, middle powers that benefited most from the post-Cold War order share the challenges of global readjustment. NATO–IP4 offers an excellent mechanism for interconnecting cooperation in security, defense, industrial resilience, emerging technologies and AI regulation. Moreover, NATO–IP4 members and NATO itself continue to engage China bilaterally and multilaterally. Increasing transparency of that engagement while deepening concrete coordination – in maritime industrial ecosystems, civilian infrastructure protection, cybersecurity and technology standards within NATO–IP4 – will weaken disinformation and ensure NATO–IP4 connects, rather than fragments, the regions of the world. ■
This article was supported by NATO, but the author is responsible for the content.
■ Inhwan OH is a Senior Research Fellow and Executive Director at EAI, Lecturer at Seoul National University.
■ Edited by Sangjun LEE, EAI Research Associate
For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 211) | leesj@eai.or.kr