The 21st Presidential Election and Korean Democracy

Korean Politics at a Crossroads of Realignment

The 21st Presidential Election, held on June 3, 2025, followed an unprecedented constitutional crisis involving the declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, and the impeachment of the president. The election simultaneously revealed the resilience of Korean democracy and its severe polarization. While the system demonstrated its maturity by overcoming the crisis through democratic procedures, the political violence and the spread of election fraud allegations during the campaign emerged as dangerous signals, making it difficult to be optimistic about the future of Korean democracy. Korea has passed the critical test of this constitutional crisis, but it still faces the formidable challenge of how to resolve the deep-rooted division and distrust in Korean society.

Based on an in-depth survey conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI) immediately after the presidential election, this book scientifically diagnoses the challenges facing Korean democracy and provides a sober analysis of the nature of social division. Each chapter illuminates the process by which traditional ideological cleavages are being reshaped into multidimensional value systems encompassing gender, human rights, and the environment, thereby presenting a new map of Korean politics. It empirically investigates the fundamental changes in the voter landscape, such as the conservative shift among young voters and the gender divide between men and women in their twenties, the dissolution of the conservative coalition of those in their sixties and seventies, and the spatial differentiation of regionalism. By discussing how distrust in the election commission and political polarization erode the electoral system itself, it lays an academic foundation for moving beyond division towards realignment.

EAI Domestic Politics Experts Analyze the Age of Distrust and the Seismic Shifts in Korean Democracy

The East Asia Institute (EAI) domestic politics experts who contributed to this book diagnose the essence of the conflicts facing Korean democracy and contemplate its future path by precisely comparing and analyzing changes in the ideological landscape of voters and voting dynamics by generation, gender, and region, focusing on the 21st Presidential Election held amidst the unprecedented constitutional crisis of martial law and impeachment.

Part I, 'New Cleavages and Generational Politics,' intensively analyzes the new political landscape changes and generational voting behaviors that were prominent in this election. Professor Gu Se-jin's 'Reconstruction of Cleavages' uses MIRT (Multidimensional Item Response Theory) analysis to reveal that the ideological landscape of voters is diversifying beyond the traditional one-dimensional spectrum centered on economy and security into new dimensions surrounding social and cultural values such as minority rights, the environment, and gender. In particular, it highlights that the support base for candidate Lee Jun-seok has emerged as a new ideological group that is economically centrist but distinctly conservative in socio-cultural aspects, illuminating the fundamental realignment of cleavages in Korean politics.

Professor Han Jeong-hoon's 'Political Orientations and Candidate Choice of Korean Youth' compares presidential election data from 2017 to 2025, demonstrating that the long-held notion of 'youth are progressive' is no longer valid in Korean politics. It captures the voting tendencies of those who express their political will through third-party candidates due to disappointment with both major parties, along with the conservative trend among young people that has become distinct since 2022.

Professor Kim Han-na's 'Men and Women in their Twenties in the 21st Presidential Election' confirms that the 'gender divide,' where men in their twenties are distinctly conservative and women in their twenties are distinctly progressive, was reproduced in this presidential election. It reveals that these differences in political attitudes stem from socio-cultural issues such as gender equality and minority rights rather than economic issues, emphasizing the rise of gender as a new core cleavage axis in Korean politics.

Dr. Jung Han-wool's 'Martial Law and Impeachment: Why Did the 40s and 50s Choose the Democratic Party?' shows that the 40s and 50s led public opinion against martial law and for impeachment, demonstrated strong support for the Democratic Party in recent elections, and served as a bastion for progressive/reformist forces in policy preferences. Furthermore, the author argues that a strong cohort characteristic of 'pro-Roh Moo-hyun sentiment' is operating behind the pro-Democratic Party/reformist orientation of the 40s and 50s.

Part II, 'A Shaken Conservatism and Divided Support Base,' provides an in-depth analysis of the conservative camp's crisis and changes in its support base. Professor Shin Jeong-seop's 'How Did the Yoon Suk-yeol Support Coalition Fragment?' traces the fragmentation of the voter group that supported candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in the 2022 presidential election. It analyzes that approximately 20% of these voters defected from the People Power Party in this election, and their final choices were directed towards candidates Lee Jae-myung and Lee Jun-seok, respectively, based on their negative attitudes towards martial law, generation, and gender issues, thereby meticulously depicting the fragmentation of the conservative support coalition.

Professor Lee Jae-mook's 'Realignment and Spatial Differentiation of Regionalism' confirms that regionalism remains a key variable in Korean elections, while also drawing attention to its internal dynamics. In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the possibility of de-regionalism due to spatial differentiation within the PK (Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam) region and generational change, evidenced by the fact that the Democratic Party candidate recorded a vote share of over 40% for the first time in history in the PK region. This demonstrates that regionalism is not a fixed structure but a fluid phenomenon that is constantly reconstructed in conjunction with socioeconomic changes.

Professor Lim Seong-hak's 'Determinants of Perceptions of Election Fraud and Voting Behavior' clearly identifies, through logistic regression analysis, that the core factors behind the widespread distrust in elections in our society are precisely distrust in the election commission and political polarization. Furthermore, it empirically demonstrates how this distrust leads to specific changes in voting behavior, such as avoiding early voting and preferring in-person voting, and discusses how 'politics of distrust' erodes democratic institutions themselves.

Table of Contents

Foreword _ 5

Part I New Cleavages and Generational Politics

Chapter 1 Reconstruction of Cleavages: The 2025 Presidential Election and the Ideological Landscape of Progressive-Conservative _ 17

Gu Se-jin | Inha University

Chapter 2 Political Orientations and Candidate Choice of Korean Youth: Focusing on Changes in Presidential Elections from 2017 to 2025 _ 59

Han Jeong-hoon | Seoul National University

Chapter 3 Men and Women in their Twenties in the 21st Presidential Election: Voting Choices, Ideological Orientations, and Political Participation _ 89

Kim Han-na | Chonbuk National University

Chapter 4 Dissolution of the 60s-70s Conservative Coalition and the Roots of the 40s-50s Pro-Democratic Party Voting Tendency _ 107

Jung Han-wool | Hankooksa Research Institute

Part II A Shaken Conservatism and Divided Support Base

Chapter 5 How Did the Yoon Suk-yeol Support Coalition (Voter Group) Fragment in the 21st Presidential Election? _ 159

Shin Jeong-seop | Soongsil University

Chapter 6 Realignment and Spatial Differentiation of Regionalism: Possibilities of Change in Regional Voting Behavior Examined Through the 21st Presidential Election _ 181

Lee Jae-mook | Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

Chapter 7 Determinants of Perceptions of Election Fraud and Their Impact on Voting Behavior _ 219

Lim Seong-hak | University of Seoul