[EAI Opinion Memo] The Democratic Party's Dilemma: The Democratic Party's Support Base Mobilized Around Ahn Cheol-soo and a Personality-Centric Election

EAI Opinion Memo No. 4

Author

Park Won-ho, EAI Panel Survey Research Team; Seoul National University

Support for Ahn Cheol-soo Among Democratic United Party Supporters

Regarding the Democratic United Party (DUP), the most notable point in this survey is that even among DUP supporters, support for Director Ahn Cheol-soo is significantly higher than for their own party's candidates.

As shown in <Table 1>, while the majority of Saenuri Party supporters (84.5%) expressed their intention to vote for candidate Park Geun-hye, 44.3% of DUP supporters responded that they would vote for Director Ahn Cheol-soo.

This level of support is higher than the combined support for all DUP candidates, including candidate Moon Jae-in, who garnered 31.4% support. This "support outside the party" among DUP supporters was also observed in both two-way and three-way race scenarios.

<Table 1> Support for Presidential Candidates by Party Affiliation (%)

Pressure for Unification

This is where the Democratic United Party's dilemma lies: as long as Director Ahn Cheol-soo, who is preferred by the existing DUP support base, exists outside the party, it is difficult to consider the candidate selected through the current internal party primary as the "final" candidate of the Democratic Party.

This trend manifests as pressure for unification, with 58.2% of DUP supporters responding that Director Ahn Cheol-soo should run in the next presidential election, and 75.4% responding that if Director Ahn runs, he should unify with the opposition candidate. In contrast, the majority of Saenuri Party supporters responded critically to Director Ahn's candidacy and potential unification (<See Tables 2 and 3>).

Party Crisis, Personality-Centric Election

It is natural for the Democratic United Party, the second-largest party in the National Assembly, to nominate a presidential candidate and secure public support, and it is essential for the party's survival. However, the reason the Democratic United Party must consider unification with Director Ahn Cheol-soo, even at the risk of being labeled a "barren party," is not solely due to the possibility of winning.

It is because this presidential election is likely to be an election where personalities and candidates are emphasized over parties and policies. Paradoxically, the Democratic United Party will likely have no choice but to follow this dynamic for its own survival (<See Table 4>). Only 5.3% of all respondents stated that they decide who to support based on the candidate's affiliated party, while 65.5% of respondents considered the candidate's background or integrity.

Respondents who considered ideology and pledges accounted for 16.6%; supporters of candidate Moon Jae-in and Director Ahn Cheol-soo placed greater importance on ideology and pledges than supporters of candidate Park Geun-hye. Meanwhile, supporters of candidate Park Geun-hye placed great importance on the candidate's background or capabilities (40.4%). ■

<Table 2> Stance on Director Ahn's Candidacy by Party Support (%)

<Table 3> Stance on Director Ahn's Unification by Party Support (%)

<Table 4> Reasons for Supporting Presidential Candidate by Support (%)