North Korea and the World: The 2024 US Presidential Election and Its Implications

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LaMji6o_Rs

Park Won-gon, Director of EAI's Center for North Korean Studies and Professor at Ewha Womans University, examines the US political landscape ahead of the 2024 presidential election and analyzes the reasons for Trump's potential return. Park suggests that while the deepening political polarization in the US is causing moderate Republicans to lean towards supporting Trump, polling data indicates that if Trump is convicted before the election, it would be highly detrimental to his re-election prospects. He further explains that the popularity Trump currently enjoys stems from excessive US military expansion, economic polarization, and the dysfunction of the US political system. Park advises that although foreign policy, a crucial area for South Korea, is not receiving significant attention in the current US election cycle, South Korea must anticipate the impact of the next US president's foreign policy on the Korean Peninsula and prepare accordingly.

■ Park Won-gon_Director, EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor, Department of North Korean Studies, Ewha Womans University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Hello, and thank you sincerely to everyone watching "North Korea and the World." As you can see from the YouTube title, the topic I will be discussing today is "Park Won-gon's North Korea and the World." For some time, I have primarily focused on North Korea, but today I intend to discuss a global agenda. Among global agendas, I believe one of the most crucial events that will significantly impact the world this year is the US presidential election. You might wonder why a North Korea scholar is discussing the US election. To share a personal anecdote, I focus on two main areas of research: narrowing it down to countries, the topics are separate, but one is, of course, North Korea, and the other is the United States. I majored in American politics during my undergraduate studies and have continued to follow US affairs. As a North Korea researcher, I focus primarily on North Korea, but in order to understand North Korea or to resolve issues on the Korean Peninsula, the United States is so important that I have continuously conducted research on the US. Today, I intend to discuss the most critical US presidential election, and I plan to follow the US election periodically throughout the year and discuss it. Of course, I will try to refrain from predicting the election outcome. The most important core issue is what policies will impact the Korean Peninsula under a new US administration or if the Biden administration continues, and ultimately, how the US-North Korea relationship will evolve. However, I feel compelled to discuss the trends of the US election. On February 24th, there will be another important Republican primary in South Carolina. With Nikki Haley still in the race, this primary in her political home state of South Carolina will be very significant. The key question will be whether she can continue until the so-called Super Tuesday in March.

From the current situation, what I can say with relative certainty is that Trump is highly likely to be the Republican nominee, and the incumbent President Biden is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee. Therefore, our interest lies in the outcome of the general election in November. Although there have been continuous changes, I would like to briefly discuss the results of a very significant recent poll. You have likely heard about this, but the US presidential election is an indirect election, with the president elected through the Electoral College. In such a system, the decisive factor is the so-called swing states. For large states like New York or California, regardless of what happens, they are reliably Democratic. Texas, which showed some movement last time, remains largely Republican. Most US states have a decided partisan leaning. Therefore, those states are not very important; the focus is on about seven swing states. The outcome in these states ultimately determines the presidential election result. Looking back at past US elections, there have been instances where a candidate won the popular vote but lost the election due to failing to win the Electoral College. This year, about seven states are considered swing states: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Regarding these states, a poll conducted by Bloomberg News from January 16th to 22nd, focusing on these swing states, yielded very interesting results. To state the results upfront: across all seven states, former President Trump's support rate was 48%, and President Biden's was 42%. This is within a 5-percentage point margin of error, plus or minus 3.5%, so they are almost within the margin of error. However, the pollsters introduced a key variable into their survey, and that key variable is

Trump's legal risks. Trump was indicted four times last year and faces a total of 91 charges. Each time he was indicted, Trump's approval ratings increased. Many experts have analyzed this phenomenon. Last year, when the New York Times asked Republican supporters why they supported Trump, 37% said they would vote for him unconditionally, while about 25% said they would never vote for Trump. However, the crucial group is the moderate Republican supporters, constituting about 37%. This moderate group of supporters, which was around 37% last year, has shown a trend of increasingly moving towards Trump. The reason for this appears to be that even if Trump is indicted for clear charges, these Republican supporters perceive it as the Democratic progressive camp oppressing the Republican Party. Therefore, with each indictment, this support base has expanded. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who had previously narrowed the gap with Trump to almost 10%, saw the gap widen to about 50% after the fourth indictment. The reason, as mentioned, is that among Republican supporters, in addition to the firm 37% who unequivocally support Trump, the 37% in the middle have also moved towards Trump. They asked a question in the swing states: "If Trump is convicted or sentenced to imprisonment in this situation, will you still support him?" Among those who responded as party members, 23% said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime. Going a step further, if he receives a prison sentence,

27% of Republican voters stated they would not support Trump. This has significant implications for the presidential election, indicating that Trump's name and legal risks have a considerable impact. Therefore, these results warrant close observation. In addition to this, there are still nine months remaining, during which various issues may arise. For example, in the 2022 midterm elections, it was widely expected that the Democratic Party would lose both the House and the Senate, but they only lost the majority in the House. While they performed quite well, they ultimately retained the Senate majority. At that time, the issue of abortion emerged as a key agenda item, which played a role.

Therefore, over the remaining nine months, what issues will emerge? The legal risks I mentioned are very important. Another crucial factor is the economic performance of the current Biden administration. The US economy is not performing poorly at present. However, due to the perceived poor economic conditions, Biden is not receiving sufficient support from the American public. Despite this, consumer expectations for the economy this year have improved compared to last year. This aspect will be very important for Biden. Ultimately, what economic achievements will be demonstrated in the first half of the year, particularly the relationship between inflation and real wage increases, and how the economy will be perceived by the American public – these factors could become decisive variables. Beyond these, issues such as immigration, crime, and various other social issues will undoubtedly play a significant role. From South Korea's perspective, the most critical foreign policy issues are not significantly impacting the US election. However, in this year's election, with two major wars ongoing in important regions globally, the Biden administration's stance on these wars and their outcomes could influence voters to some extent. I will continue to track the election and discuss the overall trends along with these variables. Separately,

I would like to delve deeper into the essence of Trump, or the Trump phenomenon, often referred to as Trumpism. Why did Trump emerge, and how should we interpret this? Given that Trump's emergence is being discussed so seriously this year, I believe it is necessary to analyze how Trump first emerged in 2016, why the US is facing this phenomenon, and whether Trumpism is evolving into a form with lasting sustainability. First, I would like to pose a question to you:

How do you view Trump? Is it "Trump's America" or "America's Trump"? This distinction is quite significant. "Trump's America" implies that Trump changed America. "America's Trump" suggests that America was already moving in that direction, and Trump emerged as a figure. In other words, due to changes in America, Trump's emergence was a historical inevitability. To state my conclusion upfront: my analysis and understanding lead me to believe it is "America's Trump."

Therefore, during the remaining nine months, what issues will arise? The judicial risks I mentioned are very important, and another is whether the current Biden administration will achieve economic success. Currently, the U.S. economy is not bad. Nevertheless, because the perceived economic situation is poor, Biden is not receiving sufficient support from the American people. Despite this, the consumer expectations index has risen significantly compared to last year.

These factors will be very important for Biden. Ultimately, what economic achievements will be seen in the first half of the year, particularly the relationship between inflation and real wage growth? How will the U.S. economy be perceived by the public? These could be decisive variables. Beyond these, there are, of course, issues such as immigration, crime, and various other social issues that will also play a significant role. From Korea's perspective, the most crucial foreign policy issue is not significantly impacting the U.S. presidential election. However, in this year's election, with two major wars ongoing in critical regions globally, the Biden administration's stance on these conflicts and their outcomes could influence voters to some extent. As the election approaches, I will discuss these comprehensive situations along with other variables and the overall trends. Separately,

I would like to discuss the essence of Trump, or the Trump phenomenon, often referred to as Trumpism. Why is Trump's emergence being discussed so seriously this year? We need to go back to 2016 to understand how Trump emerged, why America is facing this phenomenon, and whether Trumpism has developed into a form with lasting power. Therefore, I believe an analysis is necessary, and I will focus on that. First, I have a question for you.

How do you view Trump? For instance, is it "Trump's America" or "America's Trump"? This distinction is quite significant. "Trump's America" implies that Trump has changed America. "America's Trump," on the other hand, suggests that America was already heading in that direction, and Trump merely emerged as a figure. It implies that due to changes in America, Trump's emergence was a historical inevitability. To conclude, based on my analysis and understanding, it is "America's Trump."

Where should we begin? Why did America elect Trump as president, agreeing with his core messages, and why has he now become likely to win the election again? Regarding this, in 2019, Forbes published a special issue analyzing the Trump phenomenon. The title of the special issue was "What Happened to the American Century?" It argued that America's decline was inevitable, and that Trump's presidency was a result of America no longer being what it once was. The issue cited three reasons for America's diminished state, all directly related to Trump's emergence. The first is America's excessive military expansion.

Where should I begin? Why did America elect Trump, and why do so many people agree with his core messages? The question is why America has reached a point where Trump has a high probability of becoming president again. Regarding this, Forbes published a special issue in 2019 analyzing the Trump phenomenon. The title of the special issue was "How Did America's Century End?" It argued that, in retrospect, America's decline was inevitable, and it was precisely because America is no longer what it used to be that Trump became president. The article identified three reasons for America's decline, all directly related to Trump's emergence. The first is excessive US military expansion. You are all too familiar with this. After experiencing the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the US engaged in a prolonged "War on Terror," including the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. This is a clear example of excessive expansion. Excessive expansion, in the context of the rise and fall of empires, often leads to their decline and fall. The US overextended its power, expending vast resources and finances on wars that did not directly serve its interests or yield significant benefits. Ultimately, Trump's emergence is seen as a consequence of this decline. The second reason is economic polarization and the resulting erosion of national unity. Statistics show that the real wages of American workers have not improved compared to the 1970s. The lives of white-collar workers with a high school education or less have not improved at all, yet the United States has become, and is likely to remain, an increasingly prosperous nation. How is this possible? As you well know, the US leads global finance through Wall Street in the East, and it is home to leading technology companies in Silicon Valley in the West. Thus, the US continues to lead the world's economy through these two forces. However, the lives of many Americans, particularly in the declining industrial regions of the Midwest, have become increasingly difficult. This has led to the erosion of the so-called "American Dream." You are familiar with the concept of the American Dream. The most significant catalyst for its collapse was the 2008 financial crisis, which caused many middle-class Americans to lose their homes. Coupled with stagnant real wages since the 1970s, and the rising cost of college education, the lives of the American middle class have become extremely challenging. These factors of economic polarization have fueled widespread anger and frustration among the middle class, leading to significant social problems.

How is this possible? As you well know, America leads global finance through Wall Street in the East, and it is home to leading-edge technology companies like Silicon Valley in the West. Thus, America continues to lead the world's most powerful economy through these two forces. However, the lives of many Americans, particularly in the declining industrial regions of the Midwest, have become increasingly difficult. This has led to the narrative of the "American Dream" being shattered. You are familiar with the "American Dream." The most significant blow came with the 2008 financial crisis, which caused many middle-class Americans to lose their homes. Furthermore, with real wages not significantly increasing since the 1970s, their pensions have decreased, while the cost of college education in America has skyrocketed. The lives of the American middle class have become extremely difficult. This economic polarization has fueled the anger of many in the middle class...

The third reason is the dysfunction of the US political system. The January 6th Capitol riot in 2021 was a shocking event. American democracy, often seen as a beacon on a hill, a standard for all nations, experienced an invasion of its Capitol. However, this dysfunction of the political system did not manifest solely on that day; it had been accumulating over a long period, ultimately leading to that event. The emergence of Trump can be seen as a key manifestation of this dysfunction. Crucially, these three factors have collectively led to a situation where America is no longer what it used to be. In particular, white working-class voters, who form a significant portion of the electorate, are experiencing profound anxiety, frustration, and anger. Trump emerged at this critical juncture. In a sense, the situation was such that this outcome was almost inevitable, and Trump masterfully exploited it. Many of you will recall Trump's 2016 campaign. This is being repeated now. Trump made the following arguments: The lives of the middle class are very difficult. Do you know why your lives are difficult? First, it's because of the entrenched elites in Washington. People like Hillary Clinton are the epitome of these Washington elites, who wield and enjoy all the privileges, making your lives difficult. Another reason is illegal immigrants. He claimed that illegal immigrants are flooding in and taking your jobs. These claims are largely unfounded. Numerous studies have empirically shown that illegal immigrants do not take jobs. A third point he raised concerned countries like South Korea. While he mentioned other countries, South Korea was often the first. He had a consistent group of countries in mind: South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and NATO allies where US troops are stationed. He argued that these wealthy nations were not paying their fair share for defense. He constantly criticized them. Finally, he blamed China, stating that as the world's factory, China sells goods to the US at low prices, leading to a large fiscal deficit and trade deficit, thus harming the US economy. While these statements are not entirely accurate, he used them to capture the hearts of voters in key swing states, winning all six of them in 2016. This is the background of Trump's emergence.

Therefore, Trump's emergence was not a sudden event but rather a consequence of changes in American politics, economy, and society. Trump appeared at the crossroads of these changes. However, Trump is also referred to as "Hurricane Trump." A hurricane is something that sweeps everything away and transforms it. Thus, while America was heading in that direction, the interpretation shared by many, including myself, is that Trump, like a hurricane, accelerated these changes much more radically.

So, what about this year's election? Among the three factors, the excessive military expansion, the "War on Terror," has largely concluded. However, the US remains involved in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The dysfunction of democratic institutions is not easily resolved, and economic polarization remains a significant issue. Therefore, the fertile ground for Trump's emergence and the development of Trumpism still exists. However, beyond this fertile ground, the question remains how much America will revive its fundamental democratic resilience, how its traditionally held intellectualism will function, and how its constitutional ideals and principles will endure. These fundamental aspects will be tested and revealed through the outcome of this election. Thank you for watching. Please like

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Thank you for watching. Please like and subscribe. Thank you.

Thank you for watching. Please like and subscribe. Thank you.