[North Korea and the World] North Korea's Korean Peninsula War Plan and the Possibility of a Direct Negotiation

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7Es0O4Tjew

Park Won-gon, Director of EAI's Center for North Korean Studies and Professor at Ewha Womans University, analyzes North Korea's military operational plans, presenting the background and outlook for the overt manifestation of such aggressive policy. Director Park points out that North Korea's shift from its previous stance of not using nuclear weapons against South Korea, referred to as 'one people,' to publicly declaring the use of nuclear weapons against "the Republic of Korea"—a separate state system that "hostilely regards" North Korea—is a highly concerning change. Furthermore, he explains that North Korea has set the "communization of the Korean Peninsula" as the ultimate objective of its operational plans and is strengthening its intent to not only simultaneously strike key South Korean military command posts through a 'combined warfare' approach, integrating nuclear and conventional warfare, but to transform the entire Korean Peninsula into a battlefield. Director Park emphasizes that while this aggressive shift in North Korea's operational plans may be a testament to the effective functioning of ROK-US-Japan deterrence against North Korea, the ROK, the US, and Japan must prepare even more thoroughly for North Korea's potential to further escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula and concentrate on developing reconnaissance satellites and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

■ Park Won-gon_Director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the East Asia Institute. Professor at Ewha Womans University's Department of North Korean Studies.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Once again, their goal is to achieve that as the ultimate objective. There are several characteristics. First, the intention to use all of their nuclear weapons in the initial phase of war is reaffirmed. Therefore, to end the war in a short period, they will launch a full-scale attack. This is highly aggressive and poses a dangerous situation that could continuously escalate, rapidly worsening the battlefield environment on the Korean Peninsula. Hello, and welcome once again to Air Force's North Korea and the World. Today, what shall we discuss?

We will analyze North Korea's operational plans. While this is a military issue, it is a very important and serious problem from our perspective. This is because North Korea's missile and nuclear development poses an existential threat to us. North Korea is not merely developing these as a diplomatic pressure tool; they are systematically developing plans to actually use them in a battlefield environment, and these plans have become increasingly concrete in recent times. This is a situation that causes significant concern and, consequently, necessitates strengthening our preparedness.

As many of you may recall, on the 30th of last month, North Korea fired two tactical ballistic missiles. Their range is reportedly around 340 km, precisely calculated to target Gyeryongdae, the headquarters of the Navy, Air Force, and Army. Later photos shown by Kim Jong-un also depict the Gyeryongdae area being pointed at with a pointer on a map of South Korea. Two missiles were fired targeting that location. Another incident occurred the day before, on the 29th, when Kim Jong-un personally visited the North Korean People's Army General Staff's training command post. He discussed various operational plans in detail, and the aforementioned photos were released, showing him directing operations while looking at a map of South Korea. I will analyze these two events.

First, why did they do this? Why did they show these actions and reveal this information? The primary reason is that during that period, the ROK and the US were conducting the Ulchi Freedom Shield joint exercise. In response to this exercise, Kim Jong-un personally visited the training command post and conducted training, as reported. This training, known as CPX in English, is fundamental to ROK-US joint exercises. We continuously conduct such exercises. It involves staff members who can conduct the entire war gathering together. The ultimate responsibility rests with Kim Jong-un, as is the case in the North Korean system. They gather to review the operational plans from start to finish on how to conduct the war. While actual troop movements may occur, they are symbolic and limited to necessary parts, with computer simulations also being extensively utilized. What I am discussing today, what took place on August 29th, was the first time North Korea conducted such an event.

Therefore, I believe it holds significant meaning. As I mentioned, the response to Ulchi Freedom Shield is clearly stated in the North Korean announcement at the time. To quote precisely: 'The United States and the South Korean military gangsters are conducting large-scale, provocative, and extremely dangerous exercises simulating a full-scale war.' They are responding to this. To add a minor point, 'South Korea' has reappeared. Recently, there has been much discussion about this. Last Friday, North Korea used the term 'Namjoson' (South Choson), referring to the southern part. However, suddenly, 'Republic of Korea' appeared in quotation marks.

In North Korean media, quotation marks around a term like this signify something like, 'This is what you call the so-called Republic of Korea.' They use it in that manner. When this expression first appeared, there was extensive analysis. However, in my judgment, this expression was undoubtedly decided by Kim Jong-un and carries a clear meaning. The meaning is that, in a broad sense, they no longer view 'Namjoson' as a concept of a single people. Previously, North Korea always stated that they would not use nuclear weapons against 'Namjoson' because they are our compatriots.

The purpose of their nuclear weapon development was to prepare for the invasion wars of the US imperialists. That was the meaning. Now, it does not mean they recognize the legitimacy of the Republic of Korea at all. Instead, they view it as a separate, independent state system that is hostile towards them, and thus they can use nuclear weapons against it. Therefore, this is a profoundly different meaning, indicating a much more aggressive stance. Let me explain the military implications. I was quite surprised when I saw this. This is because, like South Korea and all other countries, North Korea has military operational plans. However, these plans are typically secret, and while they might mention general plans, they do not go into detail.

The details revealed by North Korea this time are quite extensive. The first objective, as widely reported by the media, is to occupy the entire southern territory. The term 'communization of the Korean Peninsula' is still being used by some, and it has been reconfirmed that the ultimate goal of their operational plans is indeed the communization of the entire Korean Peninsula. There are several characteristics. The first is that in the initial phase of the operation, they intend to use their nuclear weapons. This is to paralyze South Korea's command and communication systems through tactical nuclear strikes.

However, this is true not only for North Korea but for modern warfare in all countries: when war breaks out, the enemy's command must be struck first to break their will to fight and their capacity to wage war. North Korea intends to do the same. The significant characteristic here is that they are once again stating their intention to secure the initiative decisively from the early stages of the war, even if it means using nuclear weapons. Kim Yo-jong made the exact same statement on April 5th last year. This indicates that North Korea, which previously spoke of not firing nuclear weapons at the South under the concept of a single people, has definitively changed its stance since last year. Second, once the war begins, they will simultaneously strike key military command posts, ports, airports, and operational airfields, in addition to attacking key command structures.

To elaborate, if war breaks out, they will simultaneously attack key command structures like Gyeryongdae, and at the same time, they will turn the entire South into a battlefield and launch simultaneous attacks on all core targets. Therefore, their operational plan indicates a full-scale attack to end the war in a short period. Third, they mention 'combined warfare.' This 'combined warfare' stems from North Korea's tradition of guerrilla warfare and partisan activities dating back to the 1930s. When war breaks out, they will infiltrate their special forces into the rear areas, turning the entire Korean Peninsula, both front and rear, into a battlefield.

In summary, they intend to conduct a composite warfare, combining conventional warfare, nuclear warfare, and guerrilla-style combined warfare. The question is, can this be achieved? It is extremely complex and requires the capability, will, and plan to execute the intricate warfare environment at each stage. My primary concern is whether North Korea can actually achieve this. Second, despite this, they are clearly demonstrating their intentions and moving in this direction. Third, and most importantly, as I have repeatedly emphasized, they aim to secure the initiative decisively by using nuclear weapons in the early stages of the war. This also includes preventing the arrival of US reinforcements once the war begins.

Interpreting this, North Korea's recent tactical nuclear missile launch also occurred during the ROK-US joint military exercises, as mentioned earlier. This indicates that their confidence in their nuclear capabilities is once again reflected in their provocations with nuclear delivery systems during joint exercises since the latter half of last year. This is highly aggressive and poses a dangerous situation that could rapidly worsen the environment on the Korean Peninsula. Second, Kim Jong-un's personal appearance and detailed explanation suggest that while it serves their operational needs, it also sends a message to South Korea and the United States. I believe it is a reaction to the ROK-US-Japan summit at Camp David and the strengthening of ROK-US-Japan deterrence against North Korea.

Therefore, their expression of 'reaction' implies that the deterrence effect of the ROK, US, and Japan is indeed significant. This forces Kim Jong-un to personally reveal their operational plans and the extent of their potential attacks. So, what will happen going forward? Looking ahead, North Korea will continue to provoke, especially in response to joint military exercises. However, as of September 2023, there are some differences in North Korea's behavior compared to last year. This difference lies in a form of 'selection and concentration.'

Last year, they launched a record number of missiles, which involved significant expenditure and cost. Given North Korea's current economic situation, they cannot sustain such a level of activity. Therefore, what North Korea is demonstrating this year, although they had an initial surge in the early part of the year, involves selection and concentration on two key areas: first, satellites. They have failed twice, but plan to launch again in October. This is a military reconnaissance satellite. Second, the Hwasong-18 missile. North Korea has fired the Hwasong-18 twice, and if they successfully develop its capabilities further, potentially incorporating multiple warheads, they will acquire the practical ability to directly strike the US mainland. If they successfully achieve this, depending on the internal situation in North Korea, there is a possibility they may seek a direct negotiation. Until then, the likelihood of North Korea continuously creating tensions on the Korean Peninsula remains very high. Therefore, thorough preparation is necessary from South Korea, the United States, and including the ROK-US-Japan alliance. Thank you for watching.

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