[Global NK 인터뷰] 2023 양회와 시진핑 1인 통치 체제의 미래

YouTube 링크 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qF3AzzQWtcU

Dr. Douglas H. Paal, a Distinguished Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shares his assessments of the outcome and the implications of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC). In this first part of the Global NK interview, Dr. Paal argues that while the internal discipline within the party enhances the power of Xi Jinping, his one-man rule is a step backward for China and is bound to face troubles due to its innate inefficiency.

Xi Jinping’s One-Man Rule Bound to Bring Trouble

• The “internal discipline” within the Communist Party of China, which include meritocratic promotions, enables Xi Jinping to “lean on the party.” “97 million out of 1.4 billion Chinese competing with each other for advancement” brings “quality and discipline” to the party rule. This is the main source of Xi’s strength.

• However, one-man rule is “not efficient enough to deliver the [political, economic, and social] results that Chinese people will want.” Xi’s “personal control” over what had once been “technocratic institutions” is a “step backward” for China.

• The recent spy balloon incident is an exemplary case proving that “while the leader can give general instructions, the institution is so huge that he cannot possibly orchestrate the moves.” Xi is “trying to do too much [on his own], and he’s likely to make more mistakes like the balloon incident.”

■ Douglas H. Paal_is a Distinguished Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as vice chairman of JP Morgan Chase International (2006-2008) and was an unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan (2002-2006). He was on the National Security Council staffs of Presidents Reagan and George H. W. Bush between 1986 and 1993 as director of Asian Affairs and then as senior director and special assistant to the president. Paal held positions in the policy planning staff at the State Department, as a senior analyst for the CIA, and at U.S. embassies in Singapore and Beijing. He has spoken and published frequently on Asian affairs and national security issues.

■ 담당 및 편집: 박지수, EAI 연구원

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영상 스크립트

foreign that was the third question but uh will North Korea do in dealing with China and Russia when uh North Korea is strengthening its uh nuclear and missile power and also I want to ask about the U.S evaluation of our okay U.S Alliance these days especially when North Korea missile threat is being threatened uh enhanced so how do you think the U.S perspective uh about this strategy and the future of the Arcos Alliance well I'm quite encouraged by the ability to resume constructive relations between

a really constructive and positive relations between Washington and Seoul I'm also somewhat encouraged by the initial and I think in many ways Brave steps by the union government to deal with the long-standing historical problems in Japan as you the US really hopes that our two partners in Northeast Asia and establish a more Cooperative basis going forward the um and the recent steps on the uh wartime employment or enforced employment compensation I think is it a very positive step and I I hope it will

lead to more I'm not overly ambitious because I think there are always going to be constraints in Korean Japanese relations and we have to be realistic about but if we can function on Broad security issues more cooperatively that gives us time to bicker below the surface on those other nagging historical issues without concept without great consequence um the uh the U.S probably needs to do more to rethink what is policy toward North Korea is you know we've got to kind of return to the period of so-called benign neglect

where it's quite understandable we've been various administrations over several decades very frustrated you know our efforts to reach out are always falling short because the north is determined to be a nuclear power and we keep studying a nuclear standard uh for an elimination of nuclear capabilities as our standard for North Korea and that has proven itself to be less realistic over time we need to refresh our views refresh our our diplomatic ammunition to see if there's something we can put on the table but I'm not optimistic in

the near term North Korea is is benefiting from the need that Putin has for ammunition and other things that North Korea can supply we have a long history of watching Pyongyang exploit its opportunities whether it has them with Moscow and Beijing and I expect they will try to build as much leverage with Moscow and Beijing as they can before they resume any kind of Southern polity politics towards South Korea or towards the United States and Japan so yeah I guess my summary would be this is a time for us to get gather together Think

Tank and think tank government and government and try to come up with some ideas on how we can one reduce the damage that may be coming our way from North Korea's increasing leverage and two find some good some ways to exploit our own improve leverage because of the the stronger position of the Allies in the Asia Pacific in this post-trump period