[Global NK Interview] The Russia-Ukraine War and East Asian Geopolitics

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa2U4wGiIIosW8y7fd9VIM

[Editor's Note]

The East Asia Institute's [Global NK Zoom & Connect] invited Professor Richard K. Betts of Columbia University for a discussion on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the global security environment and Northeast Asia. Professor Betts stated that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War has become a test case for coercion theory, both militarily and economically. He further pointed out similarities between North Korea and Russia, explaining the problem of regional security instability that arises when a one-man dictatorship possesses nuclear capabilities. Regarding China-Russia relations, he predicted that China is in an "awkward position" and will assist Russia in non-military or economic ways in the long term.

I. Implications and Prospects of the Russia-Ukraine War

• Professor Betts pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine War "heralds the beginning of a new Cold War era, similar to how the Korean War embodied the military confrontation of the past Cold War," and in this regard, described it as "a major turning point in geopolitics."

• He explained that the war in Ukraine is "a test case for military and economic coercion theory." For example, he noted that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia have not only affected Russia's economy and its conduct of the war but have also "produced counterproductive effects by inflicting suffering not only on the West and Russia... but indirectly on the entire world."

• The war in Ukraine demonstrates the impact of new technologies such as "the use of drones," "tactical innovations," and "the effectiveness of anti-tank weapons."

• "The most important task now is to find conditions under which both sides can seriously negotiate a ceasefire by agreement." Professor Betts highlighted the possibility that this war "could continue for years without either side achieving dramatic progress."

II. Russia-China Relations and Prospects for Taiwan

• Professor Betts emphasized that while Western pressure motivates China to develop closer ties with Russia, "China is aware of the risks of forming too close an alliance with Russia, given the firm and united response from countries around the world to Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

• Therefore, he pointed out that China is in an "awkward position." Ultimately, he predicted that China could "assist Russia in economic ways, not through military means," and might also "provide military assistance to Russia in secret."

• However, he argued that "the long-term trend suggested by the ongoing events... is in the direction of encouraging a Sino-Russian alliance in the broader sense."

• "The biggest question now is what lessons China will draw from this situation regarding the Taiwan issue." On one hand, "China recognizes that a vast number of countries worldwide have reacted overwhelmingly negatively." On the other hand, "it also recognizes that the political and diplomatic position of the Taiwanese government is not as advantageous as that of Ukraine."

• Professor Betts suggested that the Taiwan issue is "potentially more likely to trigger a crisis than North Korea" and criticized the "complacency within the U.S. policy community that the status quo regarding Taiwan will continue indefinitely." He explained that the official U.S. policy toward Taiwan is that it "will defend Taiwan as long as it remains one of the resisting provinces, but if it pursues independence... (it will not defend it)."

III. Similarities Between Russia and North Korea

• Professor Betts emphasized that he has observed that "one-man dictatorship regimes consider situations that experts analyze as impossible to be realities and make policy decisions based on perceived threats."

• Professor Betts stressed that the "truly serious threat would arise if Putin perceives that Russia is on the verge of a humiliating defeat." He predicted that if the war results in a dramatic victory for Ukraine, Putin would face a choice between "extreme embarrassment and dishonor" and "shocking the Western world," and might "consider the use of nuclear weapons at a symbolic level" to push back against Western advances.

• In this context, he argued that we are currently in a tension between "punishing Russia's aggression" and "the risk of provoking a panicked reaction from Russia." He also expressed concern that Putin is counting on "Russia's nuclear capabilities to serve as a shield against Western retaliation."

• Ultimately, he pointed out that "the most concerning aspect is that both Putin and Kim Jong Un harbor extreme ambitions, and there appear to be few constraints on their power within their respective governments." ■

IV. Biography

■ Richard K. BettsLeo A. Shifrin Professor of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. He previously served as Director of National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and is currently a Senior Fellow. Professor Betts was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution until 1990. He also served as a lecturer and visiting professor in public administration at Harvard University. He holds B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees in Political Science from Harvard University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Seungyeon Lee , EAI Research Fellow

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