[Smart Q&A : Stephan Haggard] Implications and Effects of Sanctions Against North Korea:

Professor Stephan Haggard currently holds the position of Professor at the Graduate School of International Relations of the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), and is the Krause Distinguished Professor for the Korea-Pacific Program. As Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of East Asian Studies (JEAS), published by the Institute for East Asian Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Professor Haggard has co-authored numerous works on the political economy of North Korea with Dr. Marcus Noland, including Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform (2007) and Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea (2011). He also contributes to the Peterson Institute for International Economics blog "North Korea: Witness to Transformation."

Overview

To what extent have the sanctions against North Korea imposed this year by the UN Security Council, the United States, and the EU achieved their intended objectives, and what ripple effects will they have going forward? Professor Stephan Haggard argues that while the currently enforced sanctions against North Korea are more stringent than similar past measures, China's active cooperation and enforcement are essential for their actual effectiveness. He points out that China's unprecedented participation in UN Security Council Resolution 2270 this year aligns with China's interests in reforming the industrial structure and developing the economy of its northeastern provinces, as well as in curbing the escalation of the North Korean nuclear issue. Professor Haggard advises that the role of the United States and South Korea is to persuade China that the ultimate goal of the sanctions is not to provoke regime change or collapse in North Korea, which could amplify instability on the Korean Peninsula. He specifically emphasizes the importance of devising and implementing sanctions with appropriate means, methods, and intensity, aiming to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table in the short term and to guide North Korea toward freezing or abandoning its nuclear development in the long term. Furthermore, Professor Haggard forecasts that if the current sanctions are enforced with significant stringency, North Korea's economy, which has rapidly transformed into an open economy in recent years, could face a financial crisis in the short term, cautiously anticipating a path where economic collapse precedes regime collapse.

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