Smart Q&A: Stephan Haggard - Implications and Effects of Sanctions on North Korea:

Professor Stephan Haggard is currently a professor at the Graduate School of International Relations at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), and holds the Krause Chair in Korea-Pacific Studies. As editor-in-chief of the Journal of East Asian Studies (JEAS), published by the East Asia Institute, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Professor Haggard has co-authored numerous publications on the political economy of North Korea with Dr. Marcus Noland, including Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform (2007) and Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea (2011). He also contributes to the Peterson Institute for International Economics blog "North Korea: Witness to Transformation."

Overview

To what extent have the sanctions imposed on North Korea this year by the UN Security Council, the United States, and the EU achieved their intended objectives, and what ripple effects will they have going forward? Professor Stephan Haggard argues that while the currently enforced sanctions are more stringent than previous similar measures, China's active cooperation and enforcement are essential for their effectiveness. He points out that China's unprecedented participation in UN Security Council Resolution 2270 this year is attributable to the convergence of China's interests in reforming and developing the industrial structure of its three northeastern provinces and preventing the escalation of the North Korean nuclear issue. Professor Haggard advises that the role of the United States and South Korea is to persuade China that the ultimate goal of the sanctions is not to amplify instability on the Korean Peninsula through avenues such as regime change or collapse. He emphasizes the importance of devising and implementing sanctions with appropriate means, methods, and intensity, setting the ultimate objectives as bringing North Korea back to the negotiating table in the short term and inducing North Korea to freeze or abandon its nuclear development in the long term. Furthermore, Professor Haggard forecasts that if the current sanctions are enforced with significant stringency, North Korea's economy, which has rapidly transformed into an open economy in recent years, could face a financial crisis in the short term, cautiously anticipating a path where economic collapse precedes regime collapse.

The East Asia Institute (EAI) conducts Smart Q&A video interviews with domestic and international experts to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through question-and-answer sessions with specialists in relevant fields. The views expressed in this interview are those of the individual expert and do not necessarily reflect the position of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from Smart Q&A.