Trump's Return, America's Future

Trump, the originator of "America First," returns after four years.

Donald J. Trump, who burst onto the American political scene like a comet in 2016, endured the ignominy of being branded the worst president in history due to his administration's failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, racially charged remarks, incitement of the January 6th Capitol riot, and refusal to accept the election results.

Yet, this former president has made a spectacular comeback in the 2024 election.

Trump, who disregarded American traditions and procedures, championed white nationalism in a multiracial, multicultural nation, and undermined the multilateral order with his "America First" foreign policy, has once again become the master of the White House.

Where is America headed? Is Trump a variable or a constant in American politics? What will be the direction of trade and industrial policy under Trump's America? Is Trump's America still our ally? How will the international community view Trump's America? What changes will occur in the international security order?

Experts in American politics and foreign policy gathered at the East Asia Institute to analyze the 2024 election results, discussing changes in the domestic political landscape, the direction of industrial and trade policies, and the restructuring of the security order. This analysis seeks to explore the path forward for Korea during this turbulent period of overlapping US-China conflict and "America First" policies.

This book...

This book discusses Trump's return and the future of America. It begins by analyzing the 2024 election results, then examines why Trump was able to return, and analyzes the failures of the Democratic Party and the successes of the Republican Party. Based on this, it predicts the future direction of US domestic politics and foreign policy and proposes response strategies for Korea.

In Chapter 1, Professor Seo Jeong-geon analyzes the results of the US presidential election, specifically tracking shifts in support through demographic changes in the United States. He points out that Trump's lead over candidate Harris in areas with a high proportion of Hispanic populations delivered a shock to the Democratic Party, which had relied on identity politics appealing to minority groups, youth, and women. While it is premature to draw definitive conclusions about Trump's candidate securing a majority of Latino men's support and an increase in support from Black male voters in this election, the author predicts that the "Trump Coalition" formed by Trump's victory—a new combination of gender and race—will act as a significant change in future American politics.

In Chapter 2, Professor Ha Sang-eung depicts the current reality and future prospects of the US Democratic Party following the 2024 presidential election. He identifies inflation, illegal immigration, and the weak campaign strategy of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as major reasons for Trump's successful return to the White House in the 2024 US presidential election. Despite various policies implemented by the Biden administration, rising prices and a surge in illegal immigrants caused significant dissatisfaction among voters, which Trump leveraged as key campaign issues to gain an advantage. Harris's core campaign issues, such as abortion rights and the crisis of democracy, failed to resonate effectively. Trump's victory can also be seen as a result of support from white voters without college degrees, particularly those sensitive to cultural issues over economic ones. Consequently, the Democratic and Republican parties are now divided into 'parties of college graduates/high-income earners' and 'parties of high school graduates/low-income earners.' However, the shifts in the voter landscape observed in this election should still be considered temporary; it is too early to discuss a realignment of voters and parties. A key point to watch is whether the Democratic Party will re-emerge as a party that protects the interests of labor and minorities as it did in the past, or if it will embrace the Clinton-Obama-style neoliberal policies appealing to the highly educated, or if it will become a party that encompasses both orientations.

In Chapter 3, Professor Cha Tae-seo forecasts the future of the Republican Party. He examines the rise of the post-liberal right within the United States and analyzes the implications of the Republican Party's ideological transformation for American identity and domestic politics. Since the MAGA movement led by Trump, post-liberal ideologies have been strengthening within the Republican Party. Ideologues such as J.D. Vance and Patrick J. Deneen have emerged as key figures advocating for a "regime change" based on anti-liberal nationalism and social conservatism. They seek to reconstruct American identity as a patriarchal, white Christian nation through economic de-liberalization, the reinforcement of traditional family values, and anti-immigration policies. These changes are expected to have a significant impact not only on the ideological landscape within the US but also on the overall direction of American politics. The author first analyzes the ideological system of the new right that has driven the post-liberalization of the Republican Party in the (post-)Trump era, focusing on the ideas of J.D. Vance and Patrick Deneen. Subsequently, he examines in detail the future of America that they aim to create, centered on keywords such as anti-elitism, white Christian nationalism, conservative social democracy, and neo-patriarchy.

In Chapter 4, Professor Jeong Yeong-woo analyzes the changes in the US political and economic system through the debate surrounding industrial policy. The author reviews the discussions regarding the decline of international competitiveness in the US manufacturing sector, even during the era of neoliberal revolution led by the Reagan administration in the 1980s, characterized by small government, tax cuts, deregulation, and liberalization. Various discussions on perspectives of the US economic structure, responses to structural problems, limitations of existing approaches, and the necessity of industrial policy have been connected in various forms within the Democratic Party's policy packages. Against this policy backdrop, the author analyzes the types of industrial policies that will emerge in American politics through the flow from the Trump to the Biden and back to the Trump administrations. He explains how Trump's trade war with China and protectionist policies led to the Biden administration's CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Furthermore, he evaluates the future direction of US industrial policy after the 2024 presidential election, focusing on a report by Senator Marco Rubio.

In Chapter 5, Professor Yang Jun-seok forecasts US trade policy after the 2024 US presidential election. Analyzing the historical context behind the resurgence of protectionist trade policies, he provides short-term and long-term outlooks for the trade policy of a second Trump administration and for American protectionism. The author posits that the protectionist trade policy, which has reappeared since Trump's first administration, stems from public perception that free trade causes economic losses and instability, and from the recognition that protectionism is necessary to curb China's rise amidst US-China competition. From this perspective, the author predicts that the second Trump administration will implement strong protectionist measures, such as tariff increases and renegotiation of existing trade agreements, around the time of the 2026 midterm elections. However, he anticipates that the intensity of these policies will be adjusted to minimize domestic economic damage from protectionism and secure the support of interest groups, in line with the election timing. In the long term, the author analyzes that the protectionist trend will continue due to two structural factors: first, the negative perception of globalization and free trade among US voters is unlikely to change easily; and second, trade policy is increasingly being used as a strategic tool beyond an economic one due to the deepening US-China strategic competition. Therefore, he points out the urgent need for countries with high dependence on foreign trade, such as Korea, to develop response strategies by diversifying export markets, reorganizing supply chains, and joining economic cooperation frameworks like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

In Chapter 6, Dr. Kwon Bo-ram addresses the foreign policy of a second Trump administration. She emphasizes that when examining the US foreign policy decision-making process at the individual, state, and organizational levels, the coexistence of actors with heterogeneous motivations means that even if the overall direction of foreign policy is established under the new administration's grand strategy, the specific content and intensity of its implementation can be adjusted through the coalitions and agency of individual or allied actors. Given that President Trump considers himself strongly empowered by the people, having secured a majority of the popular vote and electoral votes in the 2024 election, he is expected to more overtly pursue "America First" in his foreign policy. He is likely to bypass Congress and pursue foreign policy initiatives primarily through his own efforts, showing a high reliance on executive orders rather than legislation. If "MAGA" loyalists successfully support a president with immense foreign policy decision-making power, the trend of American exceptionalism could weaken, leading to decisive changes in US national power and influence. However, the author suggests that considering the practical capabilities of cabinet members, the procedures of Congress and the bureaucracy, and the influence of national security expert groups, the final US foreign policy product will be derived through the interaction of various actors within the foreign policy decision-making apparatus.

In the conclusion, Professor Jeon Jae-seong evaluates Trump's victory in the 2024 election as the product of long-term, structural changes in the formation of new electoral coalitions in American politics, while also emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic variables. He then forecasts the future of the Republican and Democratic parties, predicting that the Republican Party is likely to pursue radical changes in American politics due to the rise of the post-liberal new right, while the Democratic Party will face a challenging period in seeking new identities, policy directions, and electoral coalitions. The author analyzes the characteristics of the Trump administration's foreign economic policy and foreign security policy, and then specifically forecasts policies toward China, North Korea, and the US-ROK relationship.

Table of Contents

• Foreword _ 6
  
  
  
  Introduction _ 10
  
  Son Yeol | East Asia Institute · Yonsei University
  
  Ha Sang-eung | Sogang University
  
  
  
  Chapter 1 The 2024 US Presidential Election and Polarized Politics _ 28
  
  Seo Jeong-geon | Kyung Hee University
  
  
  
  Chapter 2 The Future of the US Democratic Party as Seen Through the 2024 Presidential Election _ 48
  
  Ha Sang-eung | Sogang University
  
  
  
  Chapter 3 The Rise of the New Right and the Future of America _ 68
  
  Cha Tae-seo | Sungkyunkwan University
  
  
  
  Chapter 4 The 2024 US Presidential Election Through the Lens of Industrial Policy Debates _ 96
  
  Jeong Yeong-woo | Incheon National University
  
  
  
  Chapter 5 The Present and Future of US Trade Policy: The Return and Reinforcement of Protectionism _ 128
  
  Yang Jun-seok | Sungkyunkwan University
  
  
  
  Chapter 6 Prospects for the Foreign Policy of a Second Trump Administration: Focusing on the Foreign Policy Decision-Making Apparatus _ 144
  
  Kwon Bo-ram | Korea Institute for Defense Analyses
  
  
  
  Conclusion Trump's America and Korea _ 168
  
  Jeon Jae-seong | East Asia Institute · Seoul National University
  
  
  
  About the Contributors _ 192