Crisis and Complexity: World Order After the Economic Crisis

The Global Economic Crisis and the United States and China

The US-originated financial crisis of 2008 spread globally, culminating in a massive global economic crisis. Although major economies are successively presenting measures to escape the crisis, the world is still walking a tightrope in economic turmoil. The impact was that profound, and its influence was far-reaching. The global economic crisis, which will be recorded as a historical watershed, necessitates a re-examination of the world that followed.

Following the crisis, the discourse on world politics is dominated by theories of American decline and Chinese rise. In contrast to the United States, which showed limitations in its response to the crisis, China's role, significant due to its vast foreign exchange reserves, was discussed as a key message indicating the future direction of world order reorganization. The United States experienced the global economic crisis most severely and intensely. Therefore, the blueprint for the post-crisis world is a matter of national destiny for the US. The new vision for the world presented by the US shows a somewhat moderated and cooperative character. It emphasizes not only the role of the state but also networks among states and key actors in world politics, valuing soft power such as cultural and knowledge power alongside military and economic power, and presenting a complex combination of the principles of balance of power and the power of balance. China, which has rapidly moved to center stage through the global economic crisis, will maintain its policy of prioritizing wealth for some (先富) for the time being, as it grows from an economy with a per capita income of $4,000 to one with $10,000 in the 2020s. However, if it successfully resolves the issues of growth and distribution, democratizes its political system to support sustained economic growth, and simultaneously develops a comprehensive perspective of globalization that transcends modern internationalization, China will undoubtedly join the competition to design the new world order, following in the footsteps of the United States.

Cultivating "Composite Power": The Ideal National Standard for the 21st Century

In the post-crisis world order, alongside the transformations of the United States and China, attention must be paid to the complexity of the protagonists, the stage, and the performance. While the international competition for national strength, symbolized by the G2 of the US and China, continues to unfold at the center of the stage, non-state actors and states on stage have become interconnected in a network, exerting new influence not only in military and economic spheres but also in culture, environment, technology, knowledge, and governance.

The new asymmetric co-starring roles currently displayed by the US, which has led the East Asian order, and the emerging China depend on the acquisition of composite power. A nation can no longer guarantee survival and prosperity solely through military or economic strength as in the past. Cultural appeal, known as soft power, has emerged as a core resource of national strength, but it cannot be discussed in isolation. As various actors, both state and non-state, appear on the stage of international politics and their roles become more diverse, and as the stages representing different fields become multifaceted, the acquisition of composite power encompassing all these elements has become the standard for ideal national strength in the 21st century. Based on the new civilizational standard of composite power in the 21st century, which can be summarized as "[Military Power, Economic Power, Ecological Balance Power, Cultural Power] ∈ Knowledge Power ∈ Governance Power", the key will be which of the two nations can more effectively enhance its composite power. In this context, the US and China, along with other protagonists seeking new survival and prosperity strategies, need to make concerted efforts towards comprehensive complexity.

A New Challenge for the East Asian International Order: Dual Complexity

Along with the task of cultivating composite power as a new indicator of national strength, East Asian countries face another challenge: responding to the demand for "dual complexity." Historically, the Sino-centric world order, which formed the basis of the East Asian international order, was challenged by the advent of Western modernity from the mid-19th century onwards. East Asia, having been decisively defeated by Western imperialism, was compelled to transplant the European model of modern international order in accordance with the demands of imposed modernity. Thus, for the past century, East Asia has focused on learning the logic of the modern international order centered on the absolute sovereignty of the state.

Los países de Asia Oriental en el siglo XXI se encuentran en un punto en el que deben aceptar un nuevo y complejo orden internacional. Se enfrentan a las exigencias de un orden mundial complejo en el que no solo los estados, sino también diversos actores, y no solo la seguridad del estado, sino también diversas áreas, deben lograr la supervivencia y la prosperidad definitivas al entrelazarse. En comparación con Europa, que ha estado intentando diversas experiencias con el sueño de la integración económica y política y está densamente conectada por una red de múltiples capas a través del intercambio y la cooperación, Asia Oriental está intentando una transformación relativamente tardía. En última instancia, el orden de Asia Oriental tras la crisis se enfrenta a la importante tarea de ponerse al día con el nuevo estándar de civilización del complejo orden mundial del siglo XXI, al tiempo que logra con éxito la complejización del orden mundial complejo y el orden internacional moderno.

《Crisis and Complexity: World Order After the Economic Crisis》

As the clouds of the global economic crisis began to gather, the National Security Panel at The East Asia Institute (EAI) convened to discuss and contemplate the changes in the world order following the economic crisis and South Korea's preparedness. This was based on the prediction that the post-crisis world order would more fully manifest the civilizational shifts that had been underway since the end of the Cold War. Consequently, the book 《Crisis and Complexity: World Order After the Economic Crisis》 is a compilation of the collective discussions and research conducted by the members of the National Security Panel from September 2009 to December 2010. This book, authored by a total of 11 scholars from the EAI National Security Panel, examines the changes in the protagonists, stage, and performance of the post-crisis world order, specifically focusing on how these dynamics are unfolding in East Asia, where the Korean Peninsula is located. It sheds light on the US-China relationship and the cooperation and conflict among other regional states across the security, economic, environmental, and cultural landscapes of East Asia.

For South Korea, which has a military alliance with the United States and a strategic cooperative partnership with China amidst the US-China competition to rebuild the world order in the post-crisis era, agile responses are urgently needed. We hope that this study, which depicts the post-crisis world order from a complex perspective, will make a significant contribution to the formulation of South Korea's diplomatic, security, and unification strategies for the next decade.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Changes in the International Military Security Order After the Global Financial Crisis: US Response and Security Implications | Lee Sang-hyun

Chapter 2: Prospects for the East Asian Military Security Order After the Global Financial Crisis | Ko Bong-joon

Chapter 3: Changes in the Korean Peninsula Security Order After the Global Financial Crisis | Hwang Ji-hwan

Chapter 4: The Era of Complex Networks: The Global Financial Crisis and Changes in Economic Governance | Kim Chi-wook

Chapter 5: Changes in the Global Trade Order | Sohn Yeol

Chapter 6: East Asian Financial Governance After the Global Financial Crisis | Lee Seung-joo

Chapter 7: Changes in International Energy Governance | Lee Jae-seung

Chapter 8: Post-Crisis Global Order and International Politics of the Environment: The Present and Future of Climate Change Response Systems | Shin Bum-sik

Chapter 9: World Cultural Order in the 21st Century | Kim Jun-seok

Chapter 10: The Process of Globalization and Changes in the Cultural Sphere: Citizenship, Multiculturalism, and Religion | Park Sung-woo

For the convenience of our readers, parts of the manuscript of this book are being made public.