Crisis and Complexity: World Order After the Economic Crisis

The Global Economic Crisis and the United States and China

The U.S.-originated financial crisis of 2008 spread globally, culminating in a massive world economic crisis. Although major economies have introduced measures to escape the crisis, the world is still walking a tightrope in economic turmoil. The impact was profound, and its influence was extensive. The global economic crisis, which will be recorded as a historical turning point, necessitates a re-examination of the world that follows.

Discourses on world politics after the crisis prominently feature the decline of the United States and the rise of China. In contrast to the U.S., which showed limitations in its crisis response, China's role, bolstered by substantial foreign exchange reserves, was widely discussed as a key message indicating the future direction of world order. The U.S. experienced the global economic crisis most severely and intensely. Therefore, charting a blueprint for the post-crisis world is a matter of national destiny for the U.S. The new vision for the world presented by the U.S. exhibits a somewhat moderated and cooperative character. It emphasizes networks not only among states but also among major actors in world politics, valuing soft power such as cultural and intellectual influence alongside military and economic strength, and presenting a complex combination of the principles of balance of power and the power of balance. China, which rapidly moved to center stage during the global economic crisis, will maintain its policy of prioritizing wealth accumulation for a period, aiming to grow from its current per capita income of $4,000 to $10,000 by the 2020s. However, if it successfully resolves issues of growth and distribution, democratizes its political system to support sustained economic growth, and fully embraces a perspective of complex globalization beyond mere modernization, China will undoubtedly join the competition to design the new world order, following in the footsteps of the U.S.

Cultivating "Composite Power": The Ideal National Standard for the 21st Century

In the post-crisis world order, alongside the transformations of the U.S. and China, attention must be paid to the complexification of protagonists, stages, and performances. While the international rivalry between the U.S. and China, symbolized by the G2, continues at the center of the stage, non-state actors and states are increasingly interconnected through networks, exerting new influence not only in military and economic spheres but also in cultural, environmental, technological, and governance arenas.

The new asymmetry in the relationship between the U.S., which has led the East Asian order, and China, which is emerging as a challenger, hinges on the acquisition of composite power. Nations can no longer solely rely on military or economic strength for survival and prosperity. Cultural appeal, termed soft power, has emerged as a core resource of national strength, but it cannot be considered in isolation. As various state and non-state actors emerge on the international stage with diverse roles, and as the stages representing different domains become multifaceted, the acquisition of composite power that encompasses all these elements has become the standard for ideal national strength in the 21st century. Within this new civilizational standard of composite power in the 21st century, summarized as "[Military Power, Economic Power, Ecological Balance Power, Cultural Power] ∈ Intellectual Power ∈ Governance Power," the key will be which of the two nations can more effectively enhance its composite power. The U.S. and China, along with other protagonists seeking new strategies for survival and prosperity, are thus required to make concerted efforts toward complexification.

A New Challenge for the East Asian International Order: Dual Complexification

Alongside the task of cultivating composite power as a new indicator of national strength, East Asian nations face another challenge: responding to the demand for "dual complexification." Historically, the Sinocentric world order, which formed the bedrock of the East Asian international order, faced the challenge of Western modernity from the mid-19th century onwards with the expansion of Western imperialism. East Asia, having been decisively defeated by Western imperial powers, was compelled to transplant the European model of the modern international order in accordance with the demands of imposed modernity. Consequently, for the past century, East Asia has focused on mastering the logic of the modern international order centered on the absolute sovereignty of the state.

In the 21st century, East Asian nations are at a juncture where they must embrace a new complex international order. They are confronted with the demands of a complex world order where not only states but also diverse actors must achieve ultimate survival and prosperity through intricate interconnections across various domains, extending beyond state security. Compared to Europe, which has pursued various experiments in integrating economy and politics and is densely interconnected through a multi-layered network of exchange and cooperation, East Asia is attempting this transformation relatively late. Ultimately, the post-crisis East Asian order faces the significant task of not only catching up with the new civilizational standard of the 21st-century complex world order but also successfully achieving the complexification of the complex world order and the modern international order.

《Crisis and Complexity: World Order After the Economic Crisis》

As the clouds of the global economic crisis began to gather, the National Security Panel at The East Asia Institute (EAI) convened to discuss and contemplate the changes in world order following the economic crisis and South Korea's preparedness. This was based on the prediction that the post-crisis world order would more fully manifest the civilizational shifts underway since the end of the Cold War. Consequently, "Crisis and Complexity: World Order After the Economic Crisis," a monograph compiling the collective discussions and research conducted by the National Security Panel researchers from September 2009 to December 2010, has been published. This book, authored by a total of 11 scholars from the EAI National Security Panel, examines the U.S.-China relationship and the cooperation and conflict among other regional states in the East Asian security, economic, environmental, and cultural arenas to properly understand how the changes in protagonists, stages, and performances in the post-crisis world order are unfolding in East Asia, where the Korean Peninsula is situated.

For South Korea, which has a military alliance with the U.S. and a strategic cooperative partnership with China amidst the U.S.-China competition to reconstruct the world order following the economic crisis, agile responses are urgently needed. It is hoped that this research, which depicts the post-crisis world order from a complex perspective, will make a significant contribution to the formulation of South Korea's foreign, security, and unification strategies for the next decade.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Changes in the International Military Security Order After the Global Financial Crisis: U.S. Responses and Security Implications | Lee Sang-hyun

Chapter 2: Prospects for the East Asian Military Security Order After the Global Financial Crisis | Koh Bong-joon

Chapter 3: Changes in the Korean Peninsula Security Order After the Global Financial Crisis | Hwang Ji-hwan

Chapter 4: The Era of Complex Networks: The Global Financial Crisis and Changes in Economic Governance | Kim Chi-wook

Chapter 5: Changes in the World Trade Order | Sohn Yeol

Chapter 6: East Asian Financial Governance After the Global Financial Crisis | Lee Seung-joo

Chapter 7: Changes in International Energy Governance | Lee Jae-seung

Chapter 8: Post-Crisis Global Order and the International Politics of Environment: The Present and Future of Climate Change Response Regimes | Shin Bum-sik

Chapter 9: The World Cultural Order of the 21st Century | Kim Jun-seok

Chapter 10: The Process of Globalization and Changes in the Cultural Sphere: Citizenship, Multiculturalism, and Religion | Park Sung-woo

For the convenience of our readers, parts of the manuscript of this monograph are made public.