Speaking of China's Future: Possibilities and Limitations of a Global Superpower

The East Asia Institute China Research Panel has been conducting research on the question: "What is China to us, and how should we respond to China's rise?" The first outcome of this endeavor is "Speaking of China's Future: Possibilities and Prospects of a Global Superpower." The authors of this book analyze the potential and challenges of China's emergence as a global superpower in the political, social, economic, diplomatic, and security domains. Based on China's vision and strategies, they forecast changes in China's domestic situation, international standing, and influence around 2020, approximately ten years from now. Furthermore, based on these forecasts, they present strategies and policy recommendations for South Korea's response. This is because a proper understanding of China's strategies and policies is essential for South Korea to respond effectively.

What significance does 2020 hold for China?

The year 2020 holds historical significance as the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (1921). In terms of political scheduling, 2022 is the year of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (Party Congress), marking a significant generational change with the launch of the fifth-generation leadership in 2012. It is also the year for the full realization of a moderately prosperous society (xiaokang shehui), China's paramount national goal. In this context, 2020 serves as a crucial midpoint towards the completion of China's rise by 2050, based on the 21st century, signifying a stage of preparation for a new leap forward.

This book, which analyzes China around 2020, comprehensively examines the issue of China's rise across the political, social, economic, diplomatic, and security domains. In the past, analyses of the political and social spheres have been neglected due to the reasoning that they were not direct variables in forecasting China's rise. However, the political and social spheres are important variables that will define the nature of a rising China and could constrain its rise, thus warranting attention. Furthermore, this book also pays attention to internal Chinese voices, critically examining the vision and strategies presented by China to capture the substance of the future great power status that China aims for.

What is China's Vision and Strategy for Becoming a Great Power? | Lee Dong-ryul

This study aims to forecast "What kind of great power will China become?" by focusing on China's own voice regarding "What kind of great power does China aspire to be?" It seeks to project the future image of the great power that China aims for by examining its vision and strategies for great power status from a macro perspective. To this end, it first reviews the past 30 years of reform and opening-up, summarizing its achievements and challenges. It then examines, within a broad framework, the national vision and strategies for great power status that China has set, focusing on discourse, and analyzes the correlation between these visions and strategies and the challenges China faces.

China's Political Reform: "Democracy with Chinese Characteristics" | Lee Jeong-nam

With over 30 years of reform and opening-up policies, the focus of China's reform policies is shifting from the economy to politics. Interest in China's democratization is growing among the leadership and intellectuals of the Communist Party of China, and democracy, human rights, civil society, and the rule of law have now become mainstream discourse among Chinese intellectuals. However, the direction of China's political reform is not Western-style liberal democracy. The political reform of the Communist Party of China aims to establish a more equitable, procedural, and sustainable 'resilient authoritarian regime,' a process that will be led by the Party. Consequently, as the democracy envisioned by the Party-state and the democracy pursued by civil society become more clearly delineated, the complex dynamics of the political transition towards democracy, which will intensify after 2020, are expected to gradually emerge.

The Expansion of the Middle Class and China's Democratization | Kim Young-jin

It is projected that by 2020, despite the quantitative expansion of the middle class, they will not emerge as a powerful force for democratization that threatens the authoritarian regime. Even if economic crises lead to a distancing of the middle class from the Communist Party, it is unlikely that this crisis for the Party will directly lead to democratization. The crucial factor is whether the growth narrative can be sustained. The continuation of economic growth is a key determinant of social unrest from below, the reactions of various classes including the middle class, and the level of government legitimacy and choices. Nevertheless, as seen in many developing countries, China is more likely to devolve into an even stronger dictatorial power.

China's Rise and Prospects for Sino-US Relations | Han Seok-hee

In line with changes in its foreign policy strategy, China is expected to continue pursuing reciprocal hedging, balancing cooperation and competition in its diplomacy with the United States. That is, China will likely pursue both cooperation and competition with the U.S. to enhance its national strength, improve its image in the international community, and participate in rule-making processes to achieve its aspirations as a first-tier great power. In its pursuit of superpower status, China is expected to seek a power transition not through hegemonic war, but by participating in the formation of international norms, rules, and values, and by shaping these to its advantage, thereby facilitating a non-violent and legitimate form of power transition.

China's East Asia Policy: A Rule Maker? | Park Byung-kwang

By around 2020, China will find it difficult to reach the level of exclusive hegemony in East Asia that the United States enjoys today. However, it is projected to reach a status as an 'independent variable' capable of exerting its own voice, at least achieving a balance of power with the United States. China will emerge as a new 'rule maker' of the regional order, capable of influencing the destiny of East Asia, and will be able to ascend to the ranks of regional powers as a 'joint dominator' of East Asia, enjoying an equal standing with the United States. China has clearly expressed its will to become the leading power in East Asia, a factor that suggests China could attain the position of a regional power much sooner than we anticipate.

Prospects for China's Defense Policy: Defensive or Offensive? | Ha Do-hyung

Around 2020, China's security policy is expected to maintain its focus on preparing for localized and regional conflicts under the principle of 'coordinated development of national defense and economic construction,' while simultaneously pursuing the development of its comprehensive national strength. It is highly probable that the focus will remain on preparing for localized and regional conflicts while developing comprehensive national strength, at least until 2020. Concurrently, given the continuation of China's high economic growth, competition for energy resources is likely to intensify, increasing the possibility of tensions and conflicts. China will continue to pursue military superiority at the local and regional levels, making it highly probable that its offensive military strategy will serve as one of the foundations for securing regional dominance.

Will Economic Great Power Status Proceed Smoothly? | Jeong Hwan-woo

If the Communist Party's governing capacity is maintained and political stability is secured by 2020, China's large-scale economy is expected to continue growing, and its industrial technology level will steadily improve, allowing the pursuit of 'independent economic great power status' to proceed smoothly. However, even then, it is unlikely that China will achieve economic hegemonic status on a global scale by 2020. It is projected, however, to solidify its position as an economic power at least within the East Asian region. Consequently, the Chinese government is expected to strengthen its influence in regional trade norms, the internationalization of the Renminbi, and trade cooperation within East Asia. While its large-scale economy will continue to grow and its industrial technology level will steadily rise, it is highly unlikely to reach world-class levels. In terms of reserve currency, China's chances of achieving hegemony are also slim. The Renminbi is not freely convertible, and due to the limitations of the Renminbi and China's financial system, it is extremely unlikely that the Chinese government will permit convertibility.

China's Rise and the Future of the Korean Peninsula: What is Our Response Strategy? | Lee Dong-ryul

A rising China perceives Korea and the Korean Peninsula as targets for expanding its influence. This is particularly evident in China's recognition of South Korea's strategic value in its competition for influence with the United States and its efforts to develop relations with South Korea. Simultaneously, China's actual strategies and policies towards South Korea aim for cooperative security to resolve security dilemmas and build a stable Korean Peninsula environment. The discrepancy between China's perception and its actual policies reflects the dilemma faced by China as it continues to pursue great power status while grappling with numerous domestic and international constraints and challenges.

South Korea, due to its geopolitical location amidst global great powers, also harbors considerable concerns about the impact of changes in US-China relations on the Korean Peninsula. As a relatively weaker nation, South Korea faces the reality of having to prepare for worst-case scenarios, as it cannot realistically adjust the changes in US-China relations to align with its national interests. Therefore, rather than pursuing a clumsy hedging strategy or inertial bandwagoning between the U.S. and China, South Korea needs to steadily expand its independent space for survival and enhance its international standing and strategic value starting now. The next decade will be a crucial period not only for China but also for South Korea. China's rise will undoubtedly present new challenges and opportunities for South Korea. How South Korea establishes its relationship with a rising China over the next decade will define its future relationship with a superpower China and, furthermore, provide an opportunity to secure its space for survival within the great power competition framework. We must keenly observe China's long-term vision and strategies, and the resulting changes, to formulate our responses and strategies.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 China Vision 2020: Strategies and Challenges for Superpower Status | Lee Dong-ryul

Chapter 2 China's Political Reform and Prospects for Political Change | Lee Jeong-nam

Chapter 3 China's Social Change and Prospects for Democratization | Kim Young-jin

Chapter 4 China's Foreign Policy Strategy and Prospects for Sino-US Relations | Han Seok-hee

Chapter 5 China's East Asia Strategy and Prospects | Park Byung-kwang

Chapter 6 Evaluation and Prospects of China's Defense Policy: Defensive or Offensive? | Ha Do-hyung

Chapter 7 Prospects for China's External Economic Strategy | Jeong Hwan-woo

Chapter 8 China's Rise to Superpower Status and the Future of the Korean Peninsula | Lee Dong-ryul

For the convenience of our readers, portions of the manuscript are made available.