North Korea 2032: A Coevolutionary Strategy for Advancement

Advancement of North Korea?

At a recent party representative meeting, North Korea officially formalized the establishment of a succession system centered around Kim Jong-un, the third son of Kim Jong-il. Now, Kim Jong-un is emerging as the undisputed second-in-command in North Korean politics, following Kim Jong-il. While this is evaluated as an unprecedented third-generation hereditary succession, for North Korea, which is internally experiencing a dictatorship by the supreme leader and a military-first policy, and externally facing isolation and a desperate crisis as a problematic state in the international community, it may have been an inevitable outcome.

The world has already entered the 21st century's global era, but North Korea remains stuck in the 19th century. How long can it endure in this state? Can it survive by relying on a third-generation hereditary succession? For us, who continue to live with a divided homeland in the 21st century, the future of North Korea is ultimately our own future. Therefore, as we cannot stand idly by while North Korea takes a regressive path, we must earnestly contemplate future development strategies for North Korea. Bringing North Korea into the 21st century, developing it, and advancing it is ultimately our responsibility.

Why 2032?

2012 is the year the North Korean leadership officially declared they would open the doors to a strong and prosperous nation. However, the reality is bleak. The excessive security of the nuclear military-first policy has paradoxically exacerbated security anxieties, and due to excessive spending for excessive security, North Korea remains trapped in the tragedy of being one of the world's poorest nations. Furthermore, it is a reality that it is difficult to expect decisive action from the North Korean leadership to transform this tragedy. Nevertheless, North Korea will declare the completion of a strong and prosperous nation in 2012.

Setting aside declarations that no one will believe, we must look at the actual achievable timeframe. Thus, we determined that if there is any force that can change North Korea and if it acts positively, the earliest point at which we can expect an advanced North Korea would be about 20 years from then. 2032 is the realistic target year for North Korea's advancement.

Coevolutionary Strategy: Both Internal and External Changes are Necessary

The debate of "Sunshine Policy or Sanctions?" has neither transformed North Korea nor eased tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Twenty years have passed since the full-fledged pursuit of northern diplomacy, yet confrontation and conflict on the Korean Peninsula remain unresolved. A more constructive and future-oriented approach was urgently needed, departing from the discourse of retrospective and critical North Korea studies of the past. Accordingly, the EAI Center for North Korean Studies established the "North Korea Advancement Research Panel" in March 2008 and began earnestly exploring future development strategies for North Korea.

As a solution, we propose the keyword "Coevolutionary Strategy." This suggests that for North Korea to resolve its survival issues and overcome the crisis on the Korean Peninsula to consolidate peace, not unilateral initiative, but the "coevolution" of North Korea, South Korea, and surrounding powers changing simultaneously is necessary.

《North Korea 2032: A Coevolutionary Strategy for Advancement》

This book is the result of EAI's "North Korea Advancement Research" and centers around the keyword "Coevolutionary Strategy," covering politics, diplomacy, military affairs, economy, and human rights. Experts from each field participated, making this the first comprehensive attempt at a development strategy for North Korea. We hope this book will serve as a catalyst for a new approach to developing constructive alternatives for the North-South Korean issue.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: The Path to North Korean Advancement in 2032 – Building a Complex Network State | Ha Young-sun

Research on North Korea's Coevolutionary Strategy

Chapter 2: Politics | Woo Seung-ji

Chapter 3: Diplomacy | Jeon Jae-sung

Chapter 4: Military Affairs | Hwang Ji-hwan

Chapter 5: Economy | Cho Dong-ho

Chapter 6: Human Rights | Kim Soo-am

Appendix

For the convenience of our readers, parts of the manuscript of this book are being made public.