[22nd General Election Research Series] How do supporters of the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party perceive their representative politicians?: Analysis of voter survey data from the 2024 National Assembly election

1. Introduction

The 22nd National Assembly election on April 10, 2024, like the presidential election held two years prior, was characterized as an election with historically high levels of dislike (Yonhap News 2024/04/09). During the election process, the influence of policies, issues, and individuals was not particularly prominent; instead, it was dominated by a contest between the narrative of holding the incumbent government accountable and that of holding the opposition party accountable (Hankyoreh 2024/04/09). At the center of these opposing accountability narratives were President Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party and party leader Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, and critical voices have recently emerged even from within segments of their respective support bases.

As is well known, negative evaluations of the candidates from the two major parties were prevalent in the 20th presidential election held on March 9, 2022. Consequently, domestic and international media outlets labeled this presidential election as an "unlikeable election," a "distasteful election," or an election "marred by scandals, bickering and insults" (Reuter 2022/02/03; The Times 2022/02/13; Washington Post 2022; Yonhap News 2022/03/10). The image and evaluation of candidates are known to have a significant impact on voters' electoral choices (Ahn Jong-ki & Lee Nae-young 2018), and negative perceptions of the candidates likely had an independently significant effect on reducing the intention to vote for them. However, both Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party not only maintained high approval ratings (Hankook Ilbo 2021/10/05) but also recorded high vote shares of 47.83% and 48.56%, respectively.

These outcomes may be attributed to the political environment of a presidential election, where parties and candidates are inevitably equated, leading supporters of the two major parties to maintain high favorability towards them, despite scandals and various allegations surrounding the candidates. In addition, considering that the 2022 presidential election was highly competitive, centered around these two candidates, the average negative sentiment towards the two major candidates actually signifies affective polarization (Iyengar et al. 2012), where strong negative sentiments are expressed towards the opposing party's candidates while high favorability is maintained towards one's own candidate (Gil Jeong-ah 2022). However, in a National Assembly election, it is more realistically possible for favorability towards a party and favorability towards the key politicians representing that party to diverge. Therefore, such elections provide a more conducive political context for examining differing attitudes within the support base. Furthermore, within the parties themselves, factions such as the pro-Lee (친명계) and anti-Lee (비명계) camps (Yonhap News 2024/03/14) and the pro-Yoon (친윤계) and anti-Yoon (비윤계) camps (Seoul Shinmun 2023/01/23) exist, and negative voices regarding these two figures are also high among party supporters. Thus, it is necessary to closely examine the divergence in favorability towards parties and politicians.

This article, therefore, focuses on supporters of the two major parties to analyze whether there are differences in their evaluations of their affiliated parties and their representative politicians, and if so, to what extent. Furthermore, it investigates whether negative perceptions such as concern or anger towards their own party are more clearly directed towards the party or the politician. By doing so, this study aims to provide a more multi-dimensional understanding of the landscape of electoral and party politics in South Korea, extending beyond the competition between the two major parties to examine the dynamics of intra-party politics. The article utilizes survey data collected immediately after the 2024 National Assembly election and also incorporates presidential election survey data for comparative analysis.

2. Favorability towards the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung, and the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol

First, we examined the favorability towards the two major parties and their candidates by analyzing survey data collected in the context of the 20th presidential election in 2022. Specifically, we calculated the difference in average favorability scores based on party affiliation to report how party supporters perceived their respective parties and candidates, as shown in Table 1 below. Despite the prevalent "dislike" evaluations of the two candidates that emerged during the election campaign, supporters showed high favorability towards their own candidates, with favorability towards the candidate even exceeding that towards the party. These results reflect the intense competition that occurred during the presidential election, centered around the two major candidates and their supporters.

<Table 1> Favorability towards Major Parties and Candidates: 2022 Presidential Election

(Most negative: 0, Neither positive nor negative: 5, Most positive: 10)

In contrast, the 22nd National Assembly election in 2024 revealed notable differences in favorability towards parties and their leaders. Across all groups, favorability towards the two key politicians was lower than towards their respective parties. A particularly interesting finding is that while supporters maintained high favorability towards their own parties (74.808 for the Democratic Party and 72.702 for the People Power Party), they expressed considerably lower favorability towards Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (63.079) and President Yoon Suk-yeol (59.827). As mentioned earlier, unlike the presidential election where parties and candidates were inevitably equated and the competition was particularly fierce, the analysis of data from this National Assembly election indicates that a significant number of respondents among supporters expressed negative evaluations of these politicians.

<Table 2> Favorability towards Major Parties and Candidates: 2024 National Assembly Election

(Most negative: 0, Neither positive nor negative: 50, Most positive: 100)

To examine this more closely, correspondence analysis was conducted based on the results in Table 2 above, as presented in Table 3 below. Among Democratic Party supporters, the difference in favorability between the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung was 11.729, more than double the difference of 5.369 in their favorability towards the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol. Similarly, among People Power Party supporters, the difference in favorability between the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol was 12.876, nearly double the difference of 7.512 in their favorability towards the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung.

<Table 3> Correspondence Analysis of Favorability towards Parties and Politicians

Next, we examine how supporters of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party perceived their respective parties and presidential candidates through histograms. Figures 1 and 2 below show the distribution of the difference in favorability between the party and its candidate among Democratic Party supporters and People Power Party supporters, respectively, in the context of the 2022 presidential election. A negative (-) value indicates higher favorability towards the candidate than the party, 0 indicates indifference, and a positive (+) value indicates higher favorability towards the party than the candidate. Contrary to the general sentiment of "dislike" towards both candidates that permeated the 2022 presidential election, when examining supporters of each party, a larger proportion of respondents showed higher favorability towards their presidential candidate than towards the party.

<Figure 1> Difference in Favorability between the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung in the 2022 Presidential Election: Democratic Party Supporters

<Figure 2> Difference in Favorability between the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol in the 2022 Presidential Election: People Power Party Supporters

Next, we examine the perceptions of supporters of the two major parties regarding their parties and these politicians in the 2024 National Assembly election. The distribution, visualized as histograms, shows a significant difference compared to the results of the 2022 presidential election. Figure 3 illustrates the distribution of the difference in favorability between the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung among Democratic Party supporters. While 33.33% of supporters showed equal favorability towards the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung, a substantial proportion of respondents fall into the positive (+) value range, indicating that while maintaining high favorability towards their party, there are supporters who hold relatively negative evaluations of Lee Jae-myung.

<Figure 3> Difference in Favorability between the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung in the 2024 National Assembly Election: Democratic Party Supporters

A similar pattern was observed among People Power Party supporters. As shown in Figure 4, among the distribution of the difference in favorability between the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol, 39.27% of respondents showed equal favorability towards both. However, a significant proportion falls into the positive (+) value range, indicating that while they favor the People Power Party, they hold relatively lower favorability towards Yoon Suk-yeol.

<Figure 4> Difference in Favorability between the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol: People Power Party Supporters

3. The Cause of Concern and Anxiety towards the Party?

The results presented above indicate that a significant portion of supporters of the two major parties in 2024 hold differing evaluations of their affiliated parties and their representative politicians, particularly expressing more negative sentiments towards the politicians than the parties. Therefore, we proceed to estimate the impact of negative perceptions of each party on the party and its leader using regression analysis. The survey data includes questions regarding concerns, anxieties, and anger towards the Democratic Party and the People Power Party. The focus of this analysis is to determine, particularly among supporters, where their negative perceptions of their own party have a clearer impact: on the party itself or on its representative politician. Table 4 reports the results of the regression analysis on the impact of concern and anxiety, and Tables 5, Figures 5, and 6 present the slopes for each party to provide a more intuitive understanding.

<Table 4> Impact of Concern and Anxiety towards the Party on the Party and its Politician

As shown in Table 5, the slope coefficients were negative (-) for all respondent groups, indicating that as concern and anxiety towards the Democratic Party increased, favorability towards both the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung decreased. However, while among unaffiliated voters and People Power Party supporters, negative perceptions of the Democratic Party had a greater negative impact on the party than on Lee Jae-myung, among Democratic Party supporters, concern and anxiety towards their own party had a greater negative impact on favorability towards Lee Jae-myung than towards the party itself. This finding was consistent for the People Power Party as well. As concern and anxiety towards the People Power Party increased, favorability towards both the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol decreased across all respondent groups. However, while the impact of these negative perceptions on the People Power Party was greater on the party than on Yoon Suk-yeol among other groups, among supporters, concern and anxiety towards their own party had a greater impact on Yoon Suk-yeol than on the party.

<Table 5> Impact of Concern and Anxiety on Party and Politician: Slopes

As shown in Figure 5, for Democratic Party supporters, the slope is more clearly negative (-) for favorability towards Lee Jae-myung than for favorability towards the Democratic Party.

<Figure 5> Concern and Anxiety towards the Democratic Party:

Regarding Favorability towards the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung

Furthermore, Figure 6 shows that for People Power Party supporters, the slope is more clearly negative (-) for favorability towards Yoon Suk-yeol than for favorability towards the People Power Party, regarding their concern and anxiety towards their party.

<Figure 6> Concern and Anxiety towards the People Power Party:

Regarding Favorability towards the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol

4. The Cause of Anger towards the Party?

This section estimates the impact of negative perceptions of anger towards each party on the party and its politician using regression analysis, with the results summarized in Table 6. We particularly focus on the perceptions of anger towards their respective parties among Democratic Party and People Power Party supporters. As before, for intuitive understanding, the slopes for each supporter group are presented in Table 7, Figures 7, and 8.

<Table 6> Impact of Anger towards the Party on the Party and its Politician

The regression analysis results in Table 7 are identical to the results in Table 5 concerning concern and anxiety. Anger towards the Democratic Party had a negative impact on favorability towards both the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung. However, unlike unaffiliated voters and People Power Party supporters, among Democratic Party supporters, anger towards the Democratic Party had a more pronounced negative impact on favorability towards Lee Jae-myung than towards the party itself. The same pattern was observed for anger towards the People Power Party. As anger towards the People Power Party increased, favorability towards both the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol decreased across all respondent groups. However, among People Power Party supporters, this anger had a stronger negative impact on Yoon Suk-yeol than on the party.

<Table 7> Impact of Anger on Party and Politician: Slopes

Figure 7 shows that for Democratic Party supporters, the slope is steeper for favorability towards Lee Jae-myung than for favorability towards the Democratic Party.

<Figure 7> Anger towards the Democratic Party:

Regarding Favorability towards the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung

Furthermore, Figure 8 confirms that for People Power Party supporters, the slope is steeper for favorability towards Yoon Suk-yeol than for favorability towards the People Power Party.

<Figure 8> Anger towards the People Power Party:

Regarding Favorability towards the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol

5. Conclusion

This article examined, in the context of the 2024 National Assembly election, the differences in evaluations of their affiliated parties and representative politicians among supporters of the two major parties. It further investigated whether concerns or anger towards their own party were more clearly directed towards the party or the politician. The analysis revealed that while a significant portion of supporters still hold high favorability towards their affiliated parties, they express negative evaluations towards the representative politicians, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol. Notably, negative perceptions of their own party among supporters were found to more clearly decrease favorability towards the party leaders, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol, than towards the parties themselves. This implies that supporters attribute the causes of negative situations surrounding their party more to the leaders than to the party itself. Ultimately, it can be inferred that these two politicians do not rest on a homogeneous and stable support base. This analysis is an attempt to provide a more multi-dimensional understanding of the landscape of electoral and party politics in South Korea. Specifically, it is expected to serve as an indicator for gauging the future direction of South Korean politics, in relation to the power-sharing structure within the National Assembly as well as the dynamics of intra-party politics. Furthermore, these discussions could lead to future academic discourse on institutionalized party politics, intra-party democracy, and fandom politics. ■

References

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■ Author: Gil Jeong-ah, Research Professor, Institute for East Asian Studies, Korea University

■ Responsible Editor: Kim Sun-hee, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02-2277-1683 (ext. 209) shkim@eai.or.kr