A New North Korea Policy Proposal: Towards the Evolution of the Trust Process

2013 EAI Special Report_Beyond Trustpolitik on the Korean Peninsula

Author

Ha Young-sun Chairman of the East Asia Institute (EAI). Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He graduated from the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University, obtained a Master's degree in Political Science from the same university, and a Ph.D. in International Politics with a dissertation on the North Korean nuclear issue from the University of Washington. He has served as a Visiting Research Fellow at the Princeton University Center for International Studies, a Visiting Research Fellow at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University, Director of the Institute for International Affairs at Seoul National University, Director of the Center for American Studies, and President of the Korean Peace Studies Association. He wrote a column titled "Ha Young-sun's Column" for The Chosun Ilbo and The JoongAng Ilbo for seven years and led research groups such as the Study Group on International Relations, the Study Group on Nuclear Proliferation, the Research Group on Global Politics of Information, and the EAI Study Group. His books and edited volumes include "10 Major Tasks for Korean Diplomacy in 2020: Complexity and Resonance," "A History of the Formation of Social Science Concepts in Modern Korea, Vol. 2," "Global Politics of Complexity: Strategy, Principles, and a New Order," "Ha Young-sun's International Politics Columns 1991-2011," "The Young People in History," "Crisis and Complexity: The World Order After the Economic Crisis," "A 12-Hour Story of Unification," "Networked World Politics," "North Korea 2032: A Resonance Strategy for Advancement," "New Alliances in the 21st Century: From Cold War to Complexity," "A History of the Formation of Social Science Concepts in Modern Korea," "East Asian Community: Myth and Reality," "Transforming World Politics," "Networked Knowledge State," "Grand Strategy for Korean Diplomacy in the 21st Century: Building a Networked State," "Peace Studies in the 21st Century," "Internationalization and Globalization," "The Nuclear Weapons of the Korean Peninsula and the World Order," and "War and Peace on the Korean Peninsula."

Chun Yung-sun Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University. He graduated from the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University, earned a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University, and served as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Sookmyung Women's University. He is currently the Director of the Center for Asian Security Studies at the East Asia Institute (EAI). His recent publications include "Is Politics Moral?", "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory," and articles such as "A Critical Review of Postmodernism and Realism on Constructivist International Relations Theory," "A Theoretical Study on the Emergence of International Politics in Europe," and "The Rise of Great Powers and Response Mechanisms: Theoretical Analysis and European Cases."

Park Won-gon Professor of International Studies at Handong Global University. He graduated from Southwest Baptist University, earned a Master's degree from Boston College, and a Ph.D. in International Politics from Seoul National University. He has served as the Head of the External Cooperation Division and a Research Fellow at the Center for Security Strategy Research at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), and as Editor of the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. His main research interests include Northeast Asian international relations, security studies, diplomatic history, North Korean studies, and the ROK-U.S. alliance. His recent publications include "North-South Korea Relations under the Lee Myung-bak Administration: The North’s Provocations and the South’s Principled Response," "The US’s Policy towards South Korea 1974-1975: The Ford Administration’s Policy Change," "A Case Study of Carter Administration’s Armed Export Policy toward South Korea," "The US Carter Administration and Korea in the 12/12 incident: Concession of Moral Diplomacy," "The United Nations Command in Korea: past, present, and future," "Carter Administration’s Policy Toward South Korea: The Accommodation of Moral Diplomacy around the 10.26 incident," "ROK-U.S. Alliance under the Obama Administration," and "Nation’s Autonomy and Alliance Behavior."

Cho Dong-ho Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University. He obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania and served as a Senior Research Fellow, Head of the North Korean Economy Research Team, and Director of Planning and Coordination at the Korea Development Institute (KDI). He is currently a Standing Member of the Economic, Scientific, and Environmental Committee of the National Unification Advisory Council, a Director of the Economic, Humanities and Social Research Council under the Prime Minister's Office, a member of the North Korea Policy Governance Advisory Committee to the Speaker of the National Assembly, and President of the North Korea Economic Forum. He also serves as the Director of the North Korea Research Center at the East Asia Institute (EAI). His main research areas are the North Korean economy and inter-Korean economic cooperation. His recent research includes "Pyongyang to Seoul, Seoul to Pyongyang" (co-author), "The July 7 Declaration and the Possibility of Coexistence between North and South Korea," "Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Strategy for Resonance: A Joint Consideration by Conservatives and Progressives" (co-author), "Greater Benefits of Unification Than the Cost of Unification," and "North Korea 2032: A Resonance Strategy for Advancement" (co-editor).

Executive Summary

The East Asia Institute (EAI) New North Korea Policy Research Team has conducted policy research to develop a new South Korean policy toward North Korea in response to Pyongyang's policy of parallel development of the economy and nuclear weapons. A team of four experts in diplomacy, security, and economics, including EAI Chairman Ha Young-sun, proposes a comprehensive North Korea strategy encompassing the phases of "deterrence-engagement-trust" to support North Korea's evolution from its current self-contradictory parallel development policy to a parallel development of economic construction and denuclearized security.

Problem Statement

What measures are necessary to ensure that inter-Korean relations, which have been repeatedly cycling through crises and negotiations, advance towards irreversible peace through substantive negotiations?

Objective

The New North Korea Policy aims to facilitate a transition from the deterrence phase (Quadrant 3) to the trust phase (Quadrant 1) in the Korean Peninsula War and Peace framework, as depicted in [Figure 1] below, and contribute to building a peace order on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia. To this end, a comprehensive North Korea strategy encompassing deterrence, engagement, and trust phases will be developed.

[Figure 1] War and Peace on the Korean Peninsula

Four Principles of the New North Korea Policy

1. [Deterrence] Actively deter North Korea's nuclear weapons development and the creation of regional military crises. To this end, a comprehensive set of measures will be developed, including the full-scale review of the Korea-U.S. Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR), the Kill Chain, the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system, the U.S. extended deterrence, efficient interoperability of wartime operational control, and the conception of a Korean Peninsula peace regime.

2. [North Korean Change] Support North Korea in pursuing Parallel Development 2.0 of economic construction and denuclearized security. Given the strict international non-proliferation sanctions against nuclear weapons development, pursuing both nuclear armament and substantial economic development simultaneously is practically impossible. However, merely conveying criticism that the current parallel development policy is bound to fail will be perceived only as a threat of regime collapse in the short term and will not be effective in guiding North Korea to evolve towards Parallel Development 2.0. Careful efforts are needed to ensure that North Korea's political leadership, which has pursued an excessive security policy based on the assumption of U.S. hostile policy, confronts the difficulties of Parallel Development 1.0 and makes the decision to consider and implement the alternative of Parallel Development 2.0 for denuclearized security and economic development. To this end, a future vision for the Korean Peninsula, including discussions on a peace regime for the Korean Peninsula and East Asia, and concrete plans for it must be presented.

3. [International Cooperation] South Korea-led international resonance is necessary to support North Korea's Parallel Development 2.0. The parallel development of North Korea's denuclearized security and economic prosperity must resonate with the East Asian peace and cooperation framework. The functionalist perspective underpinning the current government's Northeast Asian peace and cooperation initiative is difficult to apply in East Asia, where intense nationalistic competition centered on individual states prevails. In other words, it is unrealistic to expect that relatively easy non-military cooperation in East Asia will expand to military cooperation. Spatially, limiting Northeast Asia is too narrow. A complex network must be established that harmoniously promotes the deepening of existing networks among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, and the expansion of new networks with China in Northeast Asia, while also encompassing relevant countries and regional international organizations in East Asia and the world. Simultaneously, the stages of activity must be integrated: the traditional stages of security and economy, the newly emerging stages of environment and culture, the knowledge stage forming the foundation of all stages in the 21st century, and the governance stage located at the top. Within this resonance of the East Asian peace and prosperity vision, North Korea's Parallel Development 2.0 should be assisted to evolve into Parallel Development 3.0 of denuclearization and economic development in the long term.

4. [Trust] Develop measures for building trust on the Korean Peninsula for each phase.The trust-building process emphasized by the current government outlines a plan to resolve North Korean issues through phased trust-building, starting with humanitarian aid to North Korea at a low level, and then attempting higher levels of economic assistance and cooperation in response. However, the current predicament on the Korean Peninsula is not occurring in Quadrant 1, which presupposes substantive negotiations, but in the process of evolving from Quadrant 3 of crisis, through Quadrant 4 of transformation, to Quadrant 1 of negotiation. Therefore, it is difficult to substantively pursue a new North Korea policy solely by preparing trust-building measures limited to specific times and areas. Measures for building trust on the Korean Peninsula must comprehensively address distrust reduction in Quadrant 3 of crisis, trust-building for trust-building in Quadrant 4 of transformation, and the substantive trust process in Quadrant 1 of negotiation... (continued)