China Panel 2009, No. 1

"US Secretary of State Clinton's Visit to China and Sino-US Relations: A Duet of 'Sharing the Same Bed but Dreaming Different Dreams' and 'Sharing the Same Boat Despite Turbulent Waters'"

A Journey of Exploration (試探之旅)

The first Asian tour by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had already captured the attention of the international community before its departure as a significant event that would gauge the direction of the Obama administration's foreign policy. This was partly due to the unusual choice of Asia as the first destination for a new US Secretary of State. This visit has sparked debate on whether it signals that East Asia is a priority for the Obama administration's foreign policy. Furthermore, the fact that the visit is to China, a rapidly rising power, while the Obama administration faces an economic crisis of unprecedented depth, has become a focal point of interest. There is an expectation that clues may be found to forecast the future of Sino-US relations, a bilateral relationship that has gained renewed attention amidst the global economic crisis. However, Secretary Clinton's visit to China was largely a preliminary meeting, characterized by a cautious exploration of the intentions and actions of fellow passengers as they embark together on a voyage of uncertain destination in the midst of an economic crisis. As Secretary Clinton herself mentioned, this trip carried the meaning of a 'journey of exploration' (試探之旅) to listen to the perspectives of the host countries and seek concrete policy directions for the future.

Indeed, Secretary Clinton opted for a diplomatic approach of exploration, attempting to assuage concerns rather than focusing on predetermined contentious issues with each country. For example, to Japan, she presented the gift of being the first Asian destination and the first summit diplomacy invitation of the Obama administration, thereby alleviating concerns about 'Japan passing.' To South Korea, she sought to reassure the government by repeatedly emphasizing assurances that South Korea would not be sidelined in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. And towards China, she not only actively avoided traditionally sensitive issues such as human rights, Tibet, and Taiwan, but also pursued a quiet diplomacy that sidestepped anticipated issues like currency exchange rates and trade.

A Subtle Shift in Inertia: 'US Leadership and China's Strategic Accommodation'

Nevertheless, it is important to note several meaningful signs and phenomena observed during this visit that offer a glimpse into future Sino-US relations. First, further careful observation is needed to determine whether Secretary Clinton's unexpectedly cautious approach is merely a journey of exploration or an indication of a shift in US policy toward China. This is because Secretary Clinton's quiet diplomacy appears to be a continuation of a series of events that have unfolded since the advent of the Obama administration. For instance, in the controversy over China being labeled a 'currency manipulator,' the US ultimately did not maintain even the minimal tough stance that was anticipated. Conversely, during the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (February 9, 2009), Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan made remarks that seemed to offer advice to the US economy from the position of China being the largest creditor nation to the US. This can be seen as a subtle shift in the existing inertia of 'US leadership and China's strategic accommodation' that has characterized Sino-US relations. Recently, within China, there is a growing perception that the US-originated financial crisis is proof of the failure of American-style capitalism and a relative decline in US power, presenting an opportune moment to enhance China's status and influence in the international community. China perceives the global financial crisis as both a crisis and an opportunity to accelerate its path toward becoming a major power. Indeed, Chinese leaders, starting with President Hu Jintao, have engaged in aggressive diplomacy, with four top leaders making separate visits to 19 countries in South America, the Middle East, and Africa within the first two months of 2009 alone. Furthermore, China is amplifying its independent voice, for example, by criticizing protectionist tendencies at the G-20 summit.