[Global NK Commentary] Could Kim Ju-ae Be North Korea's Next Leader?

On November 19 of last year, North Korea's Rodong Sinmun published photos of Kim Jong-un and his daughter Kim Ju-ae observing the test launch of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwasong-17' the previous day. Then, on November 27, the father and daughter released a commemorative photo taken with the officials involved in the Hwasong-17 ICBM test launch.

On January 1 of this year, North Korea's Korean Central Television again released photos of Kim Jong-un and Kim Ju-ae inspecting missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. On February 8, photos of the father and daughter visiting the lodgings of North Korean military commanders and attending the 75th-anniversary military founding banquet were released, and on February 9, photos and videos of Kim Ju-ae's participation in the military parade the previous day were released.

Since then, North Korean propaganda media have continued to 'promote Kim Ju-ae,' releasing 14 sets of photos of Kim Jong-un and Kim Ju-ae together from November of last year to May of this year. Among the areas where Kim Ju-ae appeared, 11 were related to the military, 2 to sports, and 1 to the economy, with a primary focus on the military sector.

North Korea's active promotion of Kim Ju-ae's existence since last year suggests that she has been 'designated' as Kim Jong-un's successor. In this regard, it is necessary to pay attention to the titles used for Kim Ju-ae by North Korean media, her status at various official events, and the fact that Kim Jong-un himself was designated as Kim Jong-il's successor from the age of 8.

On November 27 of last year, North Korea's Rodong Sinmun used the expression 'respected child' for Kim Ju-ae. Searching for the modifier 'respected' on the Rodong Sinmun website reveals that it has only been used for Kim Il-sung and his wife Kim Jong-suk, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un. Therefore, the use of such a modifier, which has only been applied to past supreme leaders and Kim Il-sung's wife, for Kim Ju-ae signifies that she will be North Korea's next leader.

On November 27 of last year, Rodong Sinmun also used the expression 'the child whom Kim Jong-un loves the most' for Kim Ju-ae. If Kim Jong-un has multiple children, it is natural for his most beloved child to become the successor.

Many experts raise the question, 'Is there a need for Kim Jong-un to designate Kim Ju-ae as his successor already when she is only about 10 years old?' However, it is important to distinguish between 'designation' and 'official appointment' of a successor.

Given Kim Ju-ae's young age, Kim Jong-un cannot 'officially appoint' her as his successor or assign her important positions. However, Kim Jong-un can begin successor training by clearly informing his close associates and the public that Kim Ju-ae will be his successor in the future.

According to the testimony of Ko Yong-suk, Kim Jong-un's aunt, and her husband, whom the author met in Washington D.C. in March 2021, the song 'Footsteps,' a tribute to Kim Jong-un, was performed for the first time on his 8th birthday (1992, when Kim Jong-il was 50) in front of Kim Jong-il, his key associates, and Kim Jong-un. From this point on, Kim Jong-il told his close associates, 'Jong-un is my successor from now on.' When Kim Jong-un's uncle pointed out that it was too early to present Kim Jong-un as his successor, Kim Jong-il repeatedly replied, 'He resembles me.' Just as Kim Jong-il 'designated' Kim Jong-un as his successor when he was 8 years old, it is judged that Kim Jong-un has now 'designated' Kim Ju-ae, estimated to be 10 years old, as his successor.

Kim Jong-il designated Kim Jong-un as his successor early on but only revealed this to a small circle of key associates attending banquets. Consequently, high-ranking officials like Hwang Jang-yop, former secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea Central Committee, were unaware of the successor designation until his defection to South Korea in 1997. Therefore, until Kim Jong-un was 'officially appointed' as Kim Jong-il's successor, which became known to our society in early 2009, many experts made predictions detached from reality, such as that Kim Jong-il would promote his eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, as his successor.

Kim Jong-il never gave a public speech in front of the masses and did not reveal the identity of his wife through propaganda media. In contrast, Kim Jong-un enjoys giving speeches in front of the public and, shortly after inheriting power, immediately revealed his wife Ri Sol-ju, demonstrating a political style completely opposite to that of Kim Jong-il.

Kim Jong-un may have judged that the benefits of early designation and public disclosure of his successor would outweigh the drawbacks. Based on his own past experience, the more people who know that Kim Ju-ae has been designated as his successor, the less room there will be for baseless speculation about the succession issue. Furthermore, if Kim Ju-ae frequently accompanies Kim Jong-un on military field guidance tours from an early age and builds a solid support base within the military, she will be able to secure power stably even if Kim Jong-un dies suddenly like Kim Jong-il and Kim Ju-ae inherits power at a young age.

Some experts, focusing solely on the fact that Kim Ju-ae is female, assess her potential to become North Korea's next leader very negatively. However, both former British Prime Minister Thatcher, known as the 'Iron Lady,' and Merkel, Germany's longest-serving chancellor, were women.

North Korea is a socialist system and a 'de facto monarchy.' To date, power in North Korea has been transferred from Kim Il-sung to his son Kim Jong-il, and then to his grandson Kim Jong-un. However, if Kim Jong-un has no sons, or if his sons lack leadership qualities, he may have no choice but to seek alternatives other than his sons.

It has been presumed that Kim Jong-un has sons older than Kim Ju-ae. However, based on the testimonies of multiple foreigners who have directly met Kim Jong-un and his family in Pyongyang and on high-level intelligence, the possibility of Kim Ju-ae having an older brother is slim. Furthermore, judging from Kim Ju-ae's appearances revealed by North Korean media, she is analyzed to possess political ambition beyond her young age, a strong interest in the military, and a firm resolve to carry on her father's legacy. Therefore, it is judged that there is a high probability that Kim Ju-ae, Kim Jong-un's 'most beloved child,' will become Kim Jong-un's successor or the next leader in 10 to 20 years.

■ Seong-jang Cheong, Head of the Unification Strategy Research Office, Sejong Institute.

■ Editor: Jisoo Park, EAI Research Fellow

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr