[Public Opinion Briefing] The 'Leaning Left Playing Field' and Centrifugal Force: The Liberalization of Subjective Ideological Self-Placement and Policy Preference Mismatch

Key Results and Evaluation of the 2017 EAI Presidential Panel Survey Wave 1

· Change in Voter Ideological Tendencies: Compared to before the 2012 presidential election, liberals increased by 10.9%p and conservatives decreased by 9.0%p - A reversal in the liberal-to-conservative power distribution.

· Average respondent ideology shifted in a liberal direction from 5.4 to 4.9.

· "Collapse of the Moon-Ahn Duopoly": The gap between the 1st and 2nd place candidates is 14.2%p.

· Centrifugal forces acting on candidate ideological positions in accordance with changes in voter ideological distribution.

· Candidate Moon, who was 4.1 in 2012, moved to 3.4, a "leftward shift": More liberal than the average supporter (4.0), raising concerns of a handicap if the duopoly is re-established.

· Candidate Ahn, who was 4.3 in 2012, moved to 5.4, a "rightward shift": Consistent with the average supporter (5.4), facing a dilemma of "alienating centrist voters" and "competing with conservative candidates."

· Candidate Hong, at 7.8, is further to the "right" than Park Geun-hye (7.1) in 2012: More conservative than the average supporter (7.3).

· Roh Moo-hyun is the preferred former president (47.3%), while Park Chung-hee falls below 20% for the first time.

· Dynamic changes in the support base between the 2012 presidential election, 2016 general election, and 2017 presidential election.

· Of the previous presidential election's Park Geun-hye supporters, 41.5% moved to Ahn Cheol-soo, with only 17% remaining with Hong Joon-pyo.

· Of the 2016 general election's People's Party supporters, only 54.5% remained with Ahn Cheol-soo, while 29.1% moved to Moon Jae-in.

· Moon Jae-in's stable lead stems from the shift in voter ideological tendencies. New supporters gained after the impeachment vote are not due to their own merits but are a backlash effect from state affairs corruption.

· Polarization on key issues: Have South Korean voters truly shifted to the liberal side?

· Issue-specific attitudes are inconsistent with subjective ideological self-placement: Public perception contradicts Candidate Moon's claims - National integration > Eradicating deep-rooted evils, THAAD deployment support > opposition.

· The "liberalization" of voter ideology is likely due to procedural challenges regarding "violations of democracy" rather than a change in policy preferences (...continued)