[Public Opinion Briefing 73-2] Party Support Ratings / Next Presidential Candidates

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 73] EAI · Korea Research March Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. MB's Approval Rating at 49.1%; Upward Trend Falters Before Majority Support

2. Party Support Ratings / Next Presidential Candidates

Gap in Support Between Grand National Party and Democratic Party Narrows

Grand National Party 32.7% ⇒ 34.5% (1.8%p increase), Democratic Party 17.9% ⇒ 23.1% (5.2%p increase)

Public Indifferent to Recently Formed New Parties: People's Participation Party 1.5%, Han Hwa-gap's New Party 0.2%, Shim Dae-pyung's New Party 0.2%

The Grand National Party's support rose to 34.5% from 32.7% last month, an increase of 1.8%p. In contrast, the Democratic Party's support reached 23.1%, a 5.2%p increase from 17.9% in the previous survey. The Democratic Labor Party garnered 4.9%, the Future Hope Alliance (formerly Pro-Park Alliance) 2.5%, the New Progressive Party 2.2%, the People's Participation Party 1.5%, the Liberty Forward Party 1.5%, and the Creative Korea Party 0.4%. While overall party support ratings showed no significant changes, considering that the Democratic Party's support rating declined more than the Grand National Party's support rating until February, the current survey's finding that the Democratic Party's support rating surpasses that of the Grand National Party is noteworthy. It appears that the Democratic Party's support base is consolidating due to various recent negative issues surrounding the ruling party.

The Grand National Party's support ratings do not seem to have been significantly affected by recent negative issues. This may be related to the fact that with the Sejong City issue subsiding, the pro-Lee vs. pro-Park conflict, which had been the biggest factor in declining support ratings, has moved below the surface. Furthermore, the recent shift towards a potential merger between the Future Hope Alliance (Pro-Park Alliance), which had been exploring a merger with Shim Dae-pyung's new party, the People's Centrist Alliance, and the Grand National Party, suggests a trend of internal conflicts within the Grand National Party being resolved.

As Elections Approach, Support for Major Parties Increases While Support for Minor Parties Shrinks

Grand National Party + Democratic Party Support Ratings: February 50.6% ⇒ March 57.6%

Total Support for Minor Parties: February 25.6% ⇒ March 17.6%

Beyond the changes in support between the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party, the shift in support between the major parties and minor parties is also noteworthy. With local elections approaching, the rivalry between the two major parties appears to be intensifying in terms of party support. In the February survey, the combined support for the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party was approximately 50.6% of all voters; this increased to 57.6% in the current survey. Conversely, support for minor parties such as the Liberty Forward Party, the Democratic Labor Party, the Future Hope Alliance, the New Progressive Party, and the Creative Korea Party has shown a declining trend, from 25.6% to 17.6%.

Notably, new parties formed ahead of the upcoming local elections are currently receiving a cold response from the public. The People's Participation Party, which declared its formation in January, garnered 1.5%. The Peace Democratic Party, led by former Democratic Party leader Han Hwa-gap, advocating the spirit of Kim Dae-jung, received 0.2% this month. The People's Centrist Alliance, led by former Governor Shim Dae-pyung, also received only 0.2%. While these parties may not have had sufficient opportunities to increase public awareness since their formation, their negative public perception as 'election-only parties' and the intensifying competition raise questions about how they will overcome the trend of strengthening the two-party dominance.

[Table] Party Support Trend (February-March 2010) (%)

* The survey on June 5 was not a regular survey but the result of an emergency joint political issue survey by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (600 respondents).

** First asked in the December survey.

*** Sum of "No supporting party," "Don't know/No answer."

**** The survey on January 14, 2010, was not a regular survey but the result of a joint political issue survey by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (1,002 respondents).

***** The official name of the Pro-Park Alliance is the Future Hope Alliance.

****** The party being prepared for launch by former Democratic Party leader Han Hwa-gap was asked for the first time in this survey.

******* This is the provisional name of the party being prepared for launch by Representative Shim Dae-pyung and was asked for the first time in this survey.

Next presidential candidate preference: Park Geun-hye 24.2% > Yoo Si-min 7.8% > Chung Mong-joon 7.0% > Han Myeong-sook 6.3%

Park Geun-hye maintains a clear lead; "Only 30.5% of Grand National Party supporters and 24.3% of MB supporters back Park."

Support for former Prime Minister Han and former Representative Chung Dong-young rises among Democratic Party supporters due to recent prosecution investigations.

This month, former Representative Park Geun-hye led with 24.2%, followed by former Minister of Health and Welfare Yoo Si-min at 7.8%, and Grand National Party leader Chung Mong-joon at 7.0%. Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook followed with 6.3%, and Representative Chung Dong-young with 5.6%. Current Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who declared his candidacy for Seoul mayor, received 4.6%, and leader Lee Hoi-chang garnered 4.3%. Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Moon-soo received 3.6%, former Representative Sohn Hak-kyu 2.5%, Prime Minister Chung Un-chan 1.9%, and Democratic Party leader Chung Sye-kyun remained at 0.7%.

[Figure 3] February Preference for Next Presidential Candidates: "If tomorrow were election day, whom would you vote for?"

Comparing the preferences of current ruling and opposition party supporters for the next presidential candidate yields interesting results. Former Representative Park Geun-hye receives 24.3% support from those currently supporting President Lee Myung-bak, a level similar to the 24.5% support she receives from those critical of President Lee. The conflict between the President and former Representative Park over the Sejong City issue appears to be causing antipathy towards former Representative Park among the President's supporters. Among the President's supporters, Representative Chung Mong-joon received 10.5% and Mayor Oh Se-hoon recorded 7.4%.

Conversely, among opposition-leaning voters critical of the President, former Representative Park Geun-hye received the highest support at 24.5%, while former Minister Yoo Si-min garnered 13.7% and former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook received similar support at 11.4%. Former Minister Chung Dong-young followed with 8.3%. Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, currently under prosecution investigation, appears to be emerging as an opposition candidate as the possibility of a favorable ruling increases due to changes in the prosecution's case. However, the proportion of respondents who deferred their answer was 30.0% among the President's supporters and 19.9% among those critical of the President.

A similar pattern is observed when examining the presidential candidate preferences of Grand National Party and Democratic Party supporters. Among Grand National Party supporters, former Representative Park Geun-hye's support rate was 30.5%, followed by Representative Chung Mong-joon at 15.5% and Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 8.2%. Among Democratic Party supporters, former Representative Chung Dong-young received 17.2% support, while former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook and former Representative Park Geun-hye each received 14.1% support, and former Minister Yoo Si-min garnered 9.9%. Although former Representative Chung Dong-young leads slightly among Democratic Party supporters, no single candidate has clearly emerged as the next presidential contender. However, the rise of former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook (from 8.4% to 14.1%) compared to last month is noteworthy.

[Figure 4] Preference for Next Presidential Candidates by MB Approval Rating (%)

[Figure 5] Preference for Next Presidential Candidates by Grand National Party and Democratic Party Supporters (%)

Former Representative Park ranks first in all regions except Honam; Representative Chung Mong-joon rises to second in Seoul.

Former Minister Yoo ranks second in the Yeongnam region after former Representative Park; falls to fourth in Seoul.

Former Prime Minister Han ranks third in the Honam and Gyeonggi/Incheon regions; only receives 6.5% in Seoul.

Regionally, former Representative Park Geun-hye receives consistent support across all regions. She yields the top position only to candidate Chung Dong-young in the Honam region but remains in the lead among current candidates despite overall stagnation in preference. However, a significant drop in support in the PK and Chungcheong regions is a concern. If the original Sejong City plan is not implemented, the weakening of support from PK and Chungcheong, which are considered core constituencies, could result in losses. Representative Chung Mong-joon's support in Seoul increased from 9.6% last month to 11.1%, notably securing the second position. This likely explains the recent movements within the Grand National Party to nominate him as the Seoul mayoral candidate in response to the variable of former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook.

Compared to last month, former Minister Yoo Si-min's support increased by only 0.5%p. While showing a gradual increase in support in the TK and PK regions (Yeongnam), placing him second after former Representative Park Geun-hye in these areas, he faces a setback in Seoul, where his support rate dropped to 6.5%, ceding the second and third positions to Representative Chung Mong-joon and candidate Oh Se-hoon. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, who is gaining support from opposition-leaning voters, received only 6.5% support in Seoul, suggesting that regardless of the court's verdict, it will be difficult for her to independently lead the election campaign for mayor of Seoul.

[Table 4] Preferred Candidates by Region (%)

* Difference calculated by subtracting the February survey results from the March survey results.

** The ranking in the February survey does not necessarily reflect the ranking in the March survey results.

*** The number of respondents from Gangwon/Jeju is 33, which is excluded from interpretation.