[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 70-1] MB's Approval Rating Rises for Four Consecutive Months / Party Support

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 70] EAI・Korea Research Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. MB's Approval Rating Rises for Four Consecutive Months / Party Support

2. Next Presidential Candidates: Park 25.2% > Yoo Si-min 7.2% > Chung Mong-joon 7.0%

MB Approval Rating at 49.2%, Rising for Four Months Since Sejong City Apology, Up 10.0%p

Responsibility for Sejong City Controversy Leads to Stagnation in Support for Grand National Party and Democratic Party

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Rising for four consecutive months since the Sejong City apology on November 27th, up 10.0%p compared to last November

Sejong City Controversy Has Little Impact on National Approval Rating

[Figure 1] Changes in President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating (%)

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In the regular survey conducted on February 27th, President Lee Myung-bak received 49.2% approval (11.5% strongly approve, 37.7% generally approve), continuing a four-month upward trend since last November. Negative evaluations stood at 48.4% (33.3% generally disapprove, 15.1% strongly disapprove), with 2.4% undecided/no response. Following the public apology regarding the revision of the original Sejong City plan during the TV address to the nation on November 12th, the approval rating was 44.1% in the December survey and 44.3% in the January survey, rising to 49.2% in the current survey, nearing a majority. This represents an increase of approximately 10.0%p compared to four months ago.

It is noteworthy that the President's approval rating is rising amidst escalating political disputes between the pro-Lee and pro-Park factions within the Grand National Party and between the ruling and opposition parties regarding the Sejong City revision bill, including the so-called 'intensity debate' between President Lee and former representative Park Geun-hye, and despite declining public support for the revision. This suggests that the current evaluation of the President's national administration is not significantly influenced by the ongoing Sejong City issue.

The impact of the Sejong City controversy is likely being buffered as the government's revised Sejong City plan was announced on January 11th, and the focus of discussion subsequently shifted to the political sphere and the National Assembly. Fundamentally, while concerns about the macroeconomic situation and household economy in 2010 persist, the improvement in both macroeconomic indicators and the perceived economic situation after a year of the global economic crisis, along with the leadership demonstrated during the process of overcoming the economic crisis, appears to be influencing public opinion (See EAI Public Opinion Briefing No. 68, "Perceived Economic Improvement in 2009, Narrowing Perception Gap by Income Level").

These are the results of the February regular public opinion barometer survey conducted by the East Asia Institute and Korea Research on February 27th. The survey was conducted via telephone with 800 adult men and women nationwide, with a sampling error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level (response rate 12.3%).

By demographic group, while there were no significant changes compared to the previous month, approval ratings have risen in most groups compared to four months ago. Notably, there was a further increase in approval ratings among low-income and low-education individuals, traditional supporters of the Grand National Party, and a recovery in approval ratings among opposition party supporters, whose critical public opinion had intensified following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun.

By region, the highest approval rating was recorded in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region (59.0%), a traditional support base for the Grand National Party, followed by Seoul (55.4%) and Incheon/Gyeonggi (50.6%). In Seoul, approval ratings have shown a continuous upward trend since last November, increasing by 11.7%p. Busan/Gyeongnam/Ulsan followed with 45.4%, but support in the Chungcheong region (39.7%), which has become a focal point of the Sejong City controversy, and the Honam region (30.2%) fell significantly below the average approval rating. However, support among residents in the Honam region shows a considerable recovery compared to the 16.7% recorded in the November survey.

By age group, approval ratings were below average in the 20s (37.7%) and 30s (27.9%), while remaining at the average level in the 40s (49.2%). Those aged 50 and above showed high approval ratings at 68.4%. By income level, high approval ratings were observed among those with a monthly household income of less than 1 million won (66.9%) and between 1 to 2 million won (50.8%). Those with incomes in the 2 million won range showed 45.1%, those in the 3 million won range showed 44.1%, and those with incomes of 4 million won or more remained at around 45.9%. By education level, those with junior high school education or less showed 63.5% approval, and high school graduates showed 54.3% approval, while those with college degrees or higher showed only 38.4% approval.

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating: November 2009 - February 2010 (%)

Simultaneous Stagnation in Support for Grand National Party and Democratic Party Compared to Previous Month

Grand National Party 32.7% (1.3%p ↓), Democratic Party support rate 17.9% (4.3%p↓)

While the President's approval rating continued to rise, support for major parties such as the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party stagnated or began to decline. The Grand National Party received 32.7% support, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Democratic Party's support rating stood at 17.9%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Democratic Labor Party garnered 6.1%, the Pro-Park United Future Party (formerly Pro-Park United Party) 4.9%, the People's Participation Party 2.7%, the Liberty Forward Party 2.2%, the Jinbo Shin Party 1.5%, and the Creative Korea Party 1.2%. Support for these parties also showed stagnation or a slight decline compared to the previous month. The fatigue from the confrontations between pro-Lee and pro-Park factions and the ruling and opposition parties over the Sejong City issue appears to be leading to a general decline in support for the political sphere.

What is noteworthy is that, although minor, the decline in support for the opposition party is relatively larger than the decline in support for the ruling party. Despite the 'favorable' internal conflict within the ruling party, the Democratic Party saw its support decline compared to the previous month in most regions and demographic groups, excluding the Honam and Chungcheong regions. The Democratic Party is failing to gain any spillover benefits from the internal conflict within the ruling party.

As political conflict between the ruling and opposition parties intensifies, negative public opinion has grown not only among pro-government citizens but also among those who desire government checks and balances. It is interpreted that some of this public opinion has shifted to the pro-Park faction, which acts as an opposition within the ruling party, leading to disappointment with the Democratic Party, which has been sidelined from the political center.

[Table 2] Changes in Party Support Ratings (January-February 2010) (%)

[Table 3] Changes in Party Support by Social Stratum (January-February 2010) (%)