[Public Opinion Briefing No. 69-2] President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating at 44.3%

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 69] EAI · Maeil Business Newspaper New Year Special (Third Year of MB Administration: National Tasks and Prospects)

1. Top 3 National Tasks for the MB Administration in its Third Year as Perceived by Public Opinion

2. President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating at 44.3%

President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating at 44.3%: Was the Rise to the 50% Range a Fleeting Effect?

Immediately after the government's revised announcement (11th), public support for the Sejong City revision was high at 58.8%

Various political alliances ahead of the local elections could also cause political turmoil.

Optimistic forecasts for the Korean economy were prevalent in various macroeconomic indicators released domestically and internationally at the year-end and New Year. Coupled with reports that the President directly led the successful bid for the UAE nuclear power plant project, most opinion polls conducted at the beginning of the year showed presidential approval ratings exceeding 50%. Achieving a majority approval rating in the middle of the term is unprecedented and serves as a factor demonstrating confidence in the President's actions as he enters his third year in office.

However, this survey by Maeil Business Newspaper and EAI, conducted immediately after the government's announcement of the revised Sejong City plan, revealed that the President's approval rating had fallen back to 44.3%. Responses indicating 'very good' were 10.0%, and 'generally good' were 34.3%. Conversely, 'not very good' accounted for 38.1%, and 'very bad' was 16.7%, significantly exceeding half. This level is similar to the approval rating in December, indicating that the surge to over 50% approval was a temporary phenomenon. This appears to be related to the rapid cooling of political sentiment following the announcement of the revised Sejong City plan, as well as growing concerns about the recent economic downturn, including reports of the largest job losses since the 1998 IMF crisis.

Regarding the direction of the Sejong City project, the proportion of respondents who believe that at least the original plan, with government ministries relocating, should be maintained was

38.2%, while the stance advocating for revision into an education, science, and business city garnered 58.8%. Undecided/No response was 3.0%. In the November survey, conducted with the same question immediately after President Lee Myung-bak's dialogue where he apologized for the reversal on the Sejong City issue, the original plan maintenance stance was 31.4%, support for the revised plan was 50.4%, and undecided responses reached 18.2%. Compared to November, support for the original plan increased by 6.8 percentage points, and support for the revised plan increased by 8.2 percentage points. The announcement of relocation plans by major corporations such as Samsung and Hanwha, as well as some universities like Korea University, appears to have led undecided respondents to make a decision. Consequently, public opinion favorable to the revised plan continues to hold the advantage.

Despite this trend in public opinion, the Sejong City issue is expected to act as a detonator for the political landscape in the first half of 2010. Since the government announced the revised Sejong City plan on the 11th, conflicts between the pro-Lee faction and the pro-Park faction within the ruling party have surfaced prominently. The opposition parties are strengthening their anti-government alliance centered around the Sejong City issue, and with the local elections scheduled for June in sight, political conflict is unlikely to subside easily.

The local elections this year are attracting more attention than usual because the Grand National Party (GNP), which maintained approval ratings of 45-50% during the latter half of the Participatory Government and the early period of the current administration, has seen its support drop to the 20-30% range within two years of taking office, suggesting an increased possibility and effectiveness of opposition party alliances. When the GNP's approval rating was in the 45-50% range, the combined support for all opposition parties, excluding undecided voters, did not reach the GNP's level. Around the inauguration of the current administration in February 2008, the GNP's approval rating was 43.7%, while the combined support for the then ruling coalition, the United Democratic Party (which had split from the Millennium Democratic Party) and the former Democratic Party, was only 12.8%. Even with the addition of the Creative Korea Party (5.3%), the Liberty Forward Party (2.9%), and the Democratic Labor Party (4.4%), the total was significantly lower than the GNP's approval rating.

However, two years later, examining party support bases reveals a different situation: the GNP's approval rating is 33.9%, the Democratic Party's is 22.2%, the Democratic Labor Party's is 7.5%, the Pro-Park United Party's is 6.3%, the Liberty Forward Party's is 3.6%, the prospective National Party's is 2.5%, and the Progressive New Party's is 2.1%. Based on simple arithmetic, the combined approval ratings of the opposition parties now surpass that of the GNP. The existence of opposition parties with a certain regional base, such as the Democratic Party, the Liberty Forward Party, and the Pro-Park United Party, also heightens the necessity for opposition party alliances in the local elections. In this process, it is evident that conflicts will arise not only between the ruling and opposition parties but also within the ruling party, and potentially within the opposition parties during the alliance formation.

[Figure 1] National Approval Rating (%) [Figure 2] Sejong City Development Direction (%)

[Figure 3] Party Support Rating (%)