[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 60, No. 2] Analysis of Party Support Ratings: Gap Between the Two Major Parties Widens to 11.2%p

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 60] Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. President Lee's Approval Rating Rises 7.2%p to 44.5%

2. Party Support: Grand National Party 31.9% (↑3.5%p), Democratic Party 20.7% (↓1.3%p), Gap Between the Two Parties Widens to 11.2%p

Party Support Remains Stagnant Since June Fluctuations, Widening the Gap Between the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party

Grand National Party 31.9%, Democratic Party 20.7%, Democratic Labor Party 5.6%, Pro-Park Geun-hye United Party 5.2%, etc.

The gap in support between the two major parties widened from 5.6%p in August to 11.2%p in September.

In the party support poll conducted on September 26, the Grand National Party garnered 31.9%, the Democratic Party 20.7%, the Democratic Labor Party 5.6%, and the Pro-Park Geun-hye United Party 5.2%. The Liberty Forward Party accounted for 2.0%. The Creative Korea Party received 0.8%, and the New Progressive Party 1.6%. Undecided voters comprised 24.4%.

Meanwhile, in the August party support poll, those who did not support any party or did not know comprised the largest group at 30.1%. Supporters of the Grand National Party followed at 27.6%, and supporters of the Democratic Party at 22.0%. The Democratic Labor Party garnered 6.2%, the Pro-Park Geun-hye United Party 4.9%, and the Liberty Forward Party 3.8%. The Creative Korea Party received 1.7%, and the New Progressive Party 2.3%.

[Figure 1] Party Support Ratings (August-September) (%)

The Grand National Party has entered the 30% range for the first time since the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun. However, its increase from the previous month was only 4.3%p. A demographic analysis of its support base shows that support was highest among those aged 50 and above at 49.6%, followed by those in their 40s at 27.8%, 20s at 20.0%, and 30s at 19.2%. Unlike President Lee Myung-bak, whose approval rating is increasing across all age groups, the increase in the Grand National Party's support is not substantial. Regionally, it received a majority of support only in the TK region (51.3%), and exceeded the overall average in the PK region (37.5%) and Seoul (35.0%). In the Gyeonggi/Incheon region, support was at the average level (32.0%). In the Chungcheong region, which is of interest due to the Sejong City controversy, support was 20.0%, and in the Honam region, it was only 8.5%. While there has been some improvement compared to August, it is difficult to confirm a significant increase in support, unlike the President's approval rating.

Although the party gained momentum with the rise in presidential approval ratings, the inclusion of politicians in the cabinet reshuffle on September 9 as requested by the party, and the apparent reconciliation of factional conflicts between the pro-Lee and pro-Park factions, the subsequent confirmation hearings for the new cabinet nominees were marred by significant ethical concerns, and the Sejong City controversy intensified. These factors appear to have prevented a substantial improvement in public evaluation of the ruling party's leadership.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party received 22.0% support in the August poll and 20.7% in the September poll, raising concerns about a return to the teens. This contrasts sharply with the government and ruling party's clear recovery of political initiative based on a moderate and pragmatic line. Although proposals regarding the party's future direction and opposition alliance strategies have been intermittently raised since the death of former President Kim Dae-jung, they have not coalesced into clear strategies for responding to political developments, and the party appears to be passively following political changes.

The political shock following the nomination of Prime Minister Chung Un-chan, while injecting some vitality into the stagnant political landscape post-Roh Moo-hyun's passing through the raising of various allegations during the confirmation hearings of subsequent cabinet nominees, has not led to an expansion of the support base. Opinions are divided on strategies for the by-elections and party reorganization, such as former representative Sohn Hak-kyu's declaration on October 28th not to run in the by-elections, the movement for the pro-Roh faction to form an independent new party, or former representative Chung Dong-young's potential return to the party, and on opposition cooperation strategies, but the party has failed to consolidate a party platform on these issues.

[Figure 2] Trend of Party Support Ratings (%)

[Table 1] Changes in Party Support Ratings (February-September 2009) (%)

* The June 5 poll was not a regular survey but a result of an emergency political issue poll jointly conducted by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (600 respondents).

** Includes respondents who do not support any party, or who answered 'don't know/no response'.

Stagnation and Signs of Defection in the Democratic Party's Core Support Base

Compared to the previous month, support decreased among those in their 20s (-2.0%p), in Seoul (-5.8%p), Daejeon/Chungcheong (-10.7%), and Honam (-8.7%p), and among progressives (-1.6%).

The unifying force against President Lee is weakening; only 31.8% of those opposing President Lee (negative evaluation of government approval) support the Democratic Party.

By age group, the Democratic Party held an advantage among those in their 30s with 31.7% support, compared to the Grand National Party's 19.2%. Among those in their 20s, the Democratic Party's support was 20.4%, similar to the Grand National Party's 20.0%. Support among those in their 40s was 21.0%, and among those aged 50 and above, it was only 13.5%.

Regionally, in the August poll, the Democratic Party received over 20% support in all regions except TK (6.3%) and PK (16.2%). However, in the September poll, support fell below 20% not only in TK (10.0%) and PK (18.3%) but also in Seoul (15.3%) and Daejeon/Chungcheong (14.0%). Even in the Honam region, a core support base for the Democratic Party, support dropped by 8.7%p from the previous month (49.5% in August) to 40.8%.

This decline is likely due to disappointment with the party's lack of clear leadership in checking the government or in its internal reorganization efforts since the death of former President Kim Dae-jung. Of particular note is the public opinion in the Chungcheong region. Last month, 24.7% responded that they supported the Democratic Party, but in this survey, support dropped by 10.7%p to 14.0%. Despite persistent criticism of Prime Minister nominee Chung Un-chan's views on scaling back Sejong City, the evaluation of the Democratic Party in the Chungcheong region itself is worsening. While the small sample size necessitates considering this within the margin of error, the possibility of political distrust and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, which is failing to exercise substantive political initiative beyond political attacks, cannot be ruled out.

Ideologically, the Democratic Party leads among progressives, who form its base, with 28.3% support compared to the Grand National Party's 23.3%, a difference of about 5%p. The Democratic Party, which claims to be the originator of moderate parties, garnered only 20.5% among moderates, while the Grand National Party, which has recently emphasized a moderate and pragmatic line, received 31.2% support. Among conservatives, 40.3% supported the Grand National Party, while only 16.1% supported the Democratic Party.

Furthermore, based on the evaluation of the President's job performance, it is evident that the Democratic Party is not trusted as an alternative capable of rallying critical public opinion against the government and ruling party. Among President Lee's supporters, 57.5% support the Grand National Party, while only 8.7% support the Democratic Party. Conversely, among respondents critical of President Lee's job performance, the Grand National Party's support was only 11.3%, but support for the Democratic Party was around 31.8%. Approximately six out of ten remaining respondents supported minor opposition parties or were undecided.

In conclusion, while the death of President Roh Moo-hyun initially led to a noticeable recovery in the Democratic Party's support among those in their 20s and 30s, in the Honam region, and in the Seoul/Chungcheong metropolitan areas, and among progressives, many respondents now, three months later, do not trust the Democratic Party as an alternative to the current government. A decline in support for the Democratic Party is observed among those in their 20s to 40s, progressives, and in traditionally strong regions for the party such as Honam and Chungcheong. This can be attributed to a growing perception that the Democratic Party is failing to act as a unifying force for critical public opinion against the President.

[Table 2] Changes in Party Support by Social Stratum (August-September) (%)

* Respondents from Gangwon/Jeju are combined into 33 individuals and excluded from interpretation.