[EAI Briefing 48-3] Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings/Party Support Ratings

[EAI·Korea Research] June Barometer - Security Perceptions/Government Reform Measures

1. Changes in Public Security Perceptions After North Korea's Nuclear Test, p. 2

2. Direction of Government Reform by the Lee Myung-bak Administration/Grand National Party, p. 9

3. Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings/Party Support Ratings, p. 12

Political Situation After Former President Roh's Death. Entering a Phase of Calm

President Lee's Approval Ratings Recover, GNP Support Reverses, DP Stagnates

President Lee's Approval Ratings and Party Support Return to Levels Before Former President Roh's Death

- 38.5% (Feb) → 34.7% (Mar) → 34.0% (Apr) → 32.4% (May 23) → 28.5% (Jun 5) → 34.8% (Jun 20)

GNP Support Recovers, DP Stagnates - GNP 29.0%, DP 23.9%, Independents 29.0%

- Compared to June 5, GNP support increased (6.7%p ▲), DP support stagnated (1.2%p ▲), Independents decreased (11.4%p ▼)

Presidential Approval Ratings Recover to Pre-Roh Moo-hyun Death Levels at 34.8%

In the two weeks following the death of President Roh Moo-hyun, the political situation fluctuated, with President Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings dropping into the 20% range and a reversal in support between the Grand National Party (GNP) and the Democratic Party (DP). However, after another two weeks have passed, both presidential approval ratings and party support ratings have returned to levels around the time before former President Roh's death, indicating a slight stabilization of the political situation. President Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings, which had fallen to 28.5% in an emergency survey conducted on June 5, two weeks after the death, recovered to 34.8% in the regular barometer survey conducted by EAI and Korea Research on June 20. This level slightly exceeds the 32.4% approval rating recorded in EAI's May regular opinion survey, conducted on the day of former President Roh's death [Figure 1]. This appears to be the result of a re-aggregation of the conservative base due to heightened security concerns following North Korea's second nuclear test and increased expectations for the ROK-US alliance, along with the return of some independent voters who had previously defected.

[Figure 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings (%)

* The June 5 survey was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) conducted jointly by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.

Re-aggregation of GNP Supporters (Protestants, Daegu/Gyeongbuk, Seoul Metropolitan Area/Chungcheong Region, 50s and older)

Increase in MB Support Among Independents (20.5%→27.7%)

Indeed, when comparing the survey results from June 5 with the current ones, the groups showing a significant increase in President Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings include independents (20.5%→27.7%) and GNP supporters (70.0%→75.0%) in terms of party affiliation, and Protestants (33.4%→44.9%) by religion. Regionally, positive evaluation rates significantly increased in traditional GNP strongholds such as Daegu (33.8%→44.4%), the Seoul Metropolitan Area including Seoul (32.5%→39.4%) and Incheon/Gyeonggi (29.7%→37.3%), and the Daejeon/Chungcheong region (17.1%→30.9%). By age group, approval ratings significantly rose among those in their 50s and older (44.5%→55.4%). Ultimately, this can be seen as a re-aggregation of the GNP's traditional support base and the return of some independent voters to the MB support base.

[Figure 2] Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Approval Ratings by Socioeconomic Group (June 5/June 20 Survey Results) (%)

GNP-DP Support Ratings Reversed Again in Two Weeks (GNP) 22.3→29.0 (6.7%p ↑), (DP) 22.7→23.9 (1.2%p ↑)

Decrease in Independents, Significant Return to GNP Support

Meanwhile, the ruling party, the Grand National Party (GNP), shows a notable recovery in its support ratings. In the February survey, the GNP had a double-score lead with 34.9% support compared to the DP's 16.4%. However, following the death of President Roh Moo-hyun on May 23, the GNP's support rating dropped into the 20% range to 29.8%, and in the survey conducted on June 5, approximately two weeks later, the GNP experienced a significant departure of supporters, with its rating falling to 22.3%, a drop of 7.5%p. However, after another two weeks have passed, the GNP's support rating recovered to 29.0% in the June 20 survey. With the proportion of independent voters decreasing from 41.6% to 29.0%, it can be inferred that a considerable number have returned to supporting the GNP.

In contrast, the Democratic Party (DP), which struggled to break out of the 10% range in support ratings until April, managed to rally its supporters following the death of President Roh Moo-hyun, recording 21.8% in the May survey. In the June 5 survey, it reached 22.7%, successfully surpassing the GNP's support rating, albeit within the margin of error. However, its support has since stagnated. In the June 5 survey, the increase compared to the May 23 survey was only 0.9%p, and in the current survey, it remains at 23.9%, allowing the GNP to regain the lead, with the gap widening to 5.1%p. The phenomenon of supporter aggregation following former President Roh's death appears to be significantly decelerating. This result indicates that relying solely on a hardline stance against the Lee Myung-bak administration has limitations in absorbing the favorable public opinion towards the DP that emerged after former President Roh's death into its support base. In other words, if the stalemate in the National Assembly continues, not only the GNP but also the DP may find it difficult to escape responsibility for the political deadlock [Figure 3].

[Figure 3] Changes in Grand National Party-Democratic Party Support Ratings and Proportion of Independents (February-June 2009) (%)

* The June 5 survey was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) conducted jointly by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.

[Table 1] Changes in Party Support Ratings (February-June 2009) (%)

* The June 5 survey was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) conducted jointly by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.