[Public Opinion Briefing 48-3] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating/Party Support Rate

[EAI·Korea Research] June Barometer - Security Awareness/Government Reform Measures

1. Changes in Public Security Awareness After North Korean Nuclear Test, p. 2

2. Reform Direction of the Lee Myung-bak Administration/Grand National Party, p. 9

3. Changes in Presidential Approval Rating/Party Support Rate, p. 12

Political Situation After Former President Roh's Death. Entering a Phase of Calm

President Lee's Approval Rating Recovers, Grand National Party Support Reverses, Democratic Party Stagnates

President Lee's Approval Rating and Party Support Return to Levels Before Former President Roh's Death

- 38.5% (Feb) → 34.7% (Mar) → 34.0% (Apr) → 32.4% (May 23) → 28.5% (Jun 5) → 34.8% (Jun 20)

Grand National Party Support Recovers, Democratic Party Stagnates - Grand National Party 29.0%, Democratic Party 23.9%, Unaffiliated 29.0%

- Compared to June 5, Grand National Party support rate increased (6.7%p▲), Democratic Party support rate stagnated (1.2%p▲), Unaffiliated decreased (11.4%p▼)

Presidential Approval Rating Recovers to Pre-Former President Roh's Death Level at 34.8%

In the two weeks following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun, the political situation fluctuated, with President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating dropping into the 20% range and a reversal in support between the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party. However, two weeks later, both presidential approval ratings and party support rates have returned to pre- and post-Roh Moo-hyun's death levels, indicating a slight stabilization of the political situation. President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating, which had fallen to 28.5% in an emergency survey conducted on June 5, two weeks after the death, recovered to 34.8% in the regular EAI·Korea Research Barometer survey conducted on June 20. This is slightly higher than the 32.4% approval rating recorded in EAI's May regular opinion survey, conducted on the day of former President Roh's death [Figure 1]. This appears to be the result of conservative segments regrouping as their support base, driven by heightened security concerns due to the second North Korean nuclear test and increased expectations for the ROK-US alliance, along with the return of some unaffiliated voters.

[Figure 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating (%)

* The June 5 survey was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) conducted jointly by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.

Re-mobilization of Grand National Party Supporters (Protestants, Daegu/Gyeongbuk, Seoul Metropolitan Area/Chungcheong Region, 50s and above)

Increase in MB Support Among Unaffiliated Voters (20.5%→27.7%)

Indeed, when comparing the survey results of June 5 with those of the current survey, the groups showing a significant increase in President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating include unaffiliated voters (20.5%→27.7%) and Grand National Party supporters (70.0%→75.0%) in terms of party affiliation, and Protestants (33.4%→44.9%) by religion. Regionally, the proportion of positive evaluations significantly increased in traditional Grand National Party strongholds such as Daegu (33.8%→44.4%), Seoul (32.5%→39.4%), the Seoul Metropolitan Area including Incheon/Gyeonggi (29.7%→37.3%), and the Daejeon/Chungcheong region (17.1%→30.9%). By age group, support rates significantly rose among those aged 50 and above (44.5%→55.4%). Ultimately, this can be seen as a re-mobilization of the Grand National Party's traditional supporters and the return of some unaffiliated voters to the MB support base.

[Figure 2] Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating by Socioeconomic Group (June 5/June 20 Survey Results) (%)

Support Rates Re-reversed Between Grand National Party and Democratic Party in Two Weeks (GNP) 22.3→29.0 (6.7%p↑), (DP) 22.7→23.9 (1.2%p↑)

Decrease in Unaffiliated Voters, Significant Return to Grand National Party Support

Meanwhile, the ruling Grand National Party shows a notable recovery in its support rate. In the February survey, the Grand National Party had a double-score lead with 34.9% support compared to the Democratic Party's 16.4%. However, following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun on May 23, the Grand National Party's support rate dropped to the 20% range at 29.8%, and in the survey conducted on June 5, approximately two weeks later, the Grand National Party experienced an outflow of 7.5%p of its support base, falling to 22.3%. However, after another two weeks, the Grand National Party's support rate recovered to 29.0% in the June 20 survey. With the proportion of unaffiliated voters decreasing from 41.6% to 29.0%, it can be inferred that a considerable number have returned to supporting the Grand National Party.

In contrast, the Democratic Party, which struggled to break out of the 10% support range until April, managed to consolidate its support base following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun, recording 21.8% in the May survey. In the June 5 survey, it reached 22.7%, successfully surpassing the Grand National Party's support rate, albeit within the margin of error. However, its support rate has since stagnated. In the June 5 survey, it increased by only 0.9%p compared to the May 23 survey, and in the current survey, it remains at 23.9%, allowing the Grand National Party to regain the lead, with the gap widening to 5.1%p. The consolidation of the support base following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun appears to be significantly slowing down. This result indicates that relying solely on a hardline stance against the Lee Myung-bak administration has limitations in absorbing the favorable public opinion towards the Democratic Party formed after former President Roh's death into its support base. In other words, if the stalemate in the National Assembly continues, not only the Grand National Party but also the Democratic Party will find it difficult to escape responsibility for the political deadlock [Figure 3].

[Figure 3] Changes in Grand National Party/Democratic Party Support Rates and Unaffiliated Voter Numbers (February-June 2009)] (%)

* The June 5 survey was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) conducted jointly by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.

[Table 1] Changes in Party Support Rates (February-June 2009) (%)

* The June 5 survey was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) conducted jointly by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.