[EAI Public Opinion Briefing 47-2] Political Turmoil Following the Death of President Roh

[EAIㆍMaeil Business Newspaper] Public Opinion Briefing No. 47

1. Unstable Political Climate: Public Concern Shifts from "Economy" to "National Unity"

2. Political Turmoil Following President Roh's Funeral

3. North Korea's Second Nuclear Test and South Koreans' Security Perceptions

President's approval rating drops 10%p since first anniversary in office - first time in the 20% range since EAI survey in 2009- 38.5% (February) → 34.7% (March) → 34.0% (April) → 32.4% (May 23) → 28.5% (June 5)

Grand National Party and Democratic Party Support Trends Reversed - Grand National Party 22.3%, Democratic Party 22.7%, Unaffiliated 41.6%- Two weeks after former President Roh's death, GNP support plummets (7.5%p▼), DP's upward trend falters (0.9%p▲), unaffiliated surge (10.4%p ▲), causing political volatility.

- As competition between the GNP and DP intensifies, support for minor parties such as the Democratic Labor Party, Liberty Forward Party, and New Progressive Party also stagnates.

President's approval rating drops into the 20% range

Two weeks after the death of President Roh Moo-hyun, the political landscape remains highly chaotic. President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating, which stood at 32.4% in the EAI regular opinion poll conducted on the day of his passing, has now fallen to 28.5% in this survey, a decrease of approximately 4.1%p. This marks a steady, albeit gradual, decline in approval ratings since the 38.5% recorded around the first anniversary of his inauguration, a period when the Lee Myung-bak administration ambitiously pushed forward its national agenda since the end of last year. In approximately four months, the rating has eroded by 10.0%p [Figure 1].

[Figure 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating (%)

Volatile Party Support: Grand National Party 22.3%, Democratic Party 22.7%

Meanwhile, party support ratings further highlight the chaotic political situation. In the February survey, the Grand National Party (GNP) held a double-digit lead with 34.9% support compared to the Democratic Party's (DP) 16.4%. However, following the death of President Roh Moo-hyun on May 23rd, the GNP's support rating fell into the 20% range at 29.8%. In the current survey, conducted nearly two weeks later, the GNP's support has dropped to 22.3%, indicating a significant departure of 7.5%p of its support base. Despite recent internal reform efforts by the GNP, internal factional conflicts that surfaced around the April 26th by-elections remain unresolved. Furthermore, the weakening trust in the government and ruling party appears to be a consequence of disarray among government ministries and misalignment between the party and the government during the implementation of various government policies.

In contrast, the DP, which struggled to surpass 10% support until April, saw a consolidation of its support base following the death of President Roh Moo-hyun, reaching 21.8% in the May survey. In the current survey, it recorded 22.7%, successfully surpassing the GNP's support rating within the margin of error. However, the increase of only 0.9%p compared to two weeks prior suggests a significant slowdown in the consolidation of support following President Roh Moo-hyun's death. This result implies that without internal momentum for growth, the DP's gains from the declining support for the government and the GNP will be limited [Figure 2].

[Figure 2] Changes in GNP-DP Party Support Ratings and Unaffiliated Voter Numbers (February-June 2009) (%)

Surge in Unaffiliated Voters (31.2% → 41.6%): Concerns Over Political Instability and Spreading Cynicism

A notable point is that public sentiment alienated from the current government and ruling party is adrift without a clear destination. The proportion of unaffiliated voters, who stated they do not support any particular party, fluctuated between 25% and 34% from February to May, but has now significantly increased to a substantial 41.6% in the current survey. While the GNP experiences a decline in support and the DP's momentum has stalled, minor parties such as the Liberty Forward Party, Democratic Labor Party, and New Progressive Party are also facing stagnant support. Their support ratings show little change compared to the survey two weeks ago, and in fact, appear to have slightly decreased ([Table 1]). This indicates that the political establishment is failing to effectively absorb the public sentiment that has shifted away from the government and ruling party. This situation is concerning, as its prolongation could lead to widespread political instability and cynicism.

[Table 1] Changes in Party Support Ratings (February-June 2009) (%)