[Public Opinion Briefing 42-2] April 29 By-election

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 42] Table of Contents

[Issue 1] Response to North Korean Missile Launch, Government's Participation in PSI, and North-South Cooperation Investigation Results

[Issue 2] April 29 By-election

[Tracking] Presidential Approval Rating and Party Support

Issue 2. April 29 By-election

□ Nature of the April 29 By-election: A Midterm Evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak Administration (50.6%), Election to Choose Local Representatives (42.6%)

Regarding the nature of the April 29 by-election, the public appears to place greater significance on it as a midterm evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration than as an election to choose local representatives. Responses indicating it is a midterm evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration accounted for 50.6%, while those stating it is an election to choose local representatives were 42.6%. Undecided/No response was 6.8%.

The public's perspective on this by-election seems to be strongly influenced by their political stance. Opinions diverge based on whether they support President Lee Myung-bak and which party they support.

The viewpoint on the by-election differs depending on support for President Lee Myung-bak. Among those who responded that President Lee Myung-bak is performing well in state affairs, 54.8% viewed it as an election to choose local representatives, while only 38.5% considered it a midterm evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration. Conversely, among those who responded that President Lee Myung-bak is not performing well in state affairs, only 35.4% answered it was an election to choose local representatives, and 58.4% considered it a midterm evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration.

A relatively clear difference in perspective on this by-election emerged based on party affiliation. Among those who support the Grand National Party, 51.4% responded that it is an election to choose local representatives. However, the situation differs for those supporting other parties or having no party affiliation. Supporters of the Democratic Party indicated it is a midterm evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration by 59.2%. For supporters of the 진보신당 (Jinbo Shin Party) and 창조한국당 (Creative Korea Party), 86.9% and 68.9% respectively placed weight on the midterm evaluation aspect. Among undecided voters with no party affiliation, 50.0% responded it is a midterm evaluation, while only 36.9% stated it is an election to choose local representatives.

With the approval ratings of President Lee Myung-bak and the Grand National Party stagnating, a majority of the public, excluding the government and ruling party supporters, are attributing midterm evaluation significance to this by-election. This implies that if the Grand National Party fails to achieve its intended results in the by-election, the administration and ruling party will face considerable political pressure. However, given that no single party commands even half of the ruling party's support, and the by-election areas are generally characterized by regional bases of both the ruling and opposition parties, it appears challenging for this by-election to serve as a platform for midterm evaluation ▧

[Figure] Public Perception of the Nature of the April 29 By-election